NFL Picks: Bet Dolphins -4.5 on Sunday's AFC Action Over Jets

Nikki Adams

Monday, December 22, 2014 3:39 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 22, 2014 3:39 PM UTC

Divisional rivals Jets and Dolphins collide in a game with no playoff implications, only angles for profit. Find out what NFL odds are currently trading as we breakdown this game and serve up NFL picks.

New York Jets (3-12, 1-6 away)
Geno Smith and the Jets gave the New England Patriots a run for their money as the 10-point road chalk in a 17-16 loss in week 16 NFL betting. At one point, the Jets enjoyed the 13-7 lead before the AFC East champions perked up and reeled off ten points in the second half to take the 17-13 lead. The Jets managed a late field goal to draw to within a point and could have had another field goal to take the lead, only for Vince Wilfork's partial block that sent it off its intended course between the posts.

The loss marked the Jets' fourth loss in the last five games. They snapped a three-game losing streak in week 15 NFL betting with a narrow 16-11 win over the Titans on the road, but couldn't continue that form at the expense of the NFC East standard on home turf. What they did, however, is play up to their opponents rather well. Perhaps, their best effort on the season yet, which should send them to Miami with some room for optimism. It's worth noting that the win over the Titans was their first road win of the season and puts them on course to potentially clinch their second straight road win against the Dolphins in their curtain closer.

The Jets are set to miss the playoffs for the fourth straight year, prompting many to call for wholesale changes in the organisation – namely the sacking of Rex Ryan. It remains to be seen whether any quick decisions will be reached in the lead up to week 17 NFL betting. It's something Jets backers will want to pay close attention to before placing their NFL picks.

Overall, the Jets are 3-12 SU and 5-9-1 ATS with an 8.7-point margin of defeat. On the road, they are 1-6 SU and a 2-4-1 ATS mark with a 12.9-point margin of defeat.


Miami Dolphins (8-7 SU, 4-3 home)
The Dolphins are coming off a nail-bitter in week 16 NFL betting, a 37-35 win over the gutsy Minnesota Vikings that snapped a run of two straight losses. Although the Dolphins will miss the playoffs for a sixth straight year, it didn't stop them exuding bonhomie on the sidelines when rookie Terence Fede blocked a punt for a safety that lifted the Dolphins to the narrow victory with 41 seconds left on the clock. Of course, Ryan Tannehill deserves a lot of credit doing most of the graft, driving the Dolphins 80-yards down the field and setting up Dan Williams for the 3-yard score that drew the Dolphins level 35-35.

On the day, Tannehill went 35-of-47 for 396 yards and four touchdowns and one interception. It marked the most touchdown passes by a quarterback since the Dolphins' heyday under Dan Marino. The Dolphins are 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS with a 4-point margin of victory.


NFL Betting Verdict: Miami -4.5 over Jets
It's been an up-and-down season for the Miami Dolphins but they are finally in a good position to finish the season with a winning record, their first such since 2008. Behind the win over the Vikings, the Dolphins improved to 8-7 on the season. They are assured to finish at least at .500 on the season, but a win over New York Jets at home in week 17 NFL betting would officially put them in the green, proving a fitting validation for coach Philbin and the system he's building in Miami.

The Jets have played divisional rivals close this term, save for the blowouts to Buffalo. Case-and-point: their narrow 17-16 loss to the Patriots last week. However, winning rather than playing an opponent close is the name of the game and with the season on the verge of wrapping up, odds makers are stacking the NFL odds against the Jets.

Early NFL betting markets install the Dolphins as the 4.5-point home chalk. While we agree the Dolphins are the correct favourites, keep in mind their last two opponents at home held them close and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games (home and away), including their 16-13 win over the Jets in week 13 on the road.

That's been the case with the Dolphins: a lack of consistency across the NFL odds board. When they are good, they are very good. When they are bad, they are pretty bad. That said, for the most part, they've gotten the better of losing teams this season and quite convincingly. They beat the Raiders 38-14 (away), the Bears 27-14 (away) and Jaguars 27-13 (away). They also have solid home wins particularly against divisional rivals on their resume, including a  37-0 win over the Chargers and a 33-20 win over the Patriots and a 22-9 win over the Bills, to name a few. If the Dolphins carry the momentum of this latest home win into their ultimate game this season, they could very well steamroll the Jets.

Free NFL Pick: Dolphins -4.5 at BetOnline

comment here