NFL Picks: Bet Cowboys & Dolphins To Go 'Under' 47 Despite Romo's Return

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, November 22, 2015 12:13 AM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015 12:13 AM UTC

The Cowboys travel to the Sunshine State to take on the Dolphins but this analysis is not about wins and losses but about how many combined points these teams will score. Let's see what the NFL odds makers hanging on this total.

Romo Returns!
Expectations are running wild in the Lone Star State over what Romo will or will not do when he leads the team on the field for the first time since Week 2 when he was injured against the Philadelphia Eagles. But those who are predicting offensive fireworks may be sorely disappointed. His top receiver Dez Bryant has recently returned after watching from the sidelines for five weeks but he has had only one "Dez Bryant" performance in the three weeks since his return. In his last outing he was targeted a dozen times and caught only five passes for 45 yards.

Tony Romo, it should be noted, engineered only two scoring drives before his injury and both were field goals. That's right the Dallas offense scored a grand total of six points before TR went down. This could very well be a flashback to 2008 when Romo was out for three games with a broken pinky finger and upon his return he completed 19-of-28 for 198 yards with a TD pass and two picks. The Cowboys won that game in DC 14-10 over the Redskins. But could we see history repeat itself particularly with a Tony Romo, who at 35, may not rebound as well as he did when he was 28? We will tune in on Sunday to find out.


Dolphins Floundering
Certainly there is a ray of hope in Miami after the Dolphins upset the Eagles last week in Philly as the NFL odds makers had the wrong favorite installing the Fish as five point underdogs. But the season has not been kind to the Dolphins as their 4-5 record attests which places them in the cellar of the AFC East. In addition, the defense is so banged up, according to new coach Dan Campbell, that the team did not practice in full pads this week.

Miami is not doing anything particularly well this season, except for that comeback last week against the Eagles, owning the 23rd ranked offense (21.2 PPG), 21st ranked defense (25 PPG), 19th ranked rushing attack (103 YPG) and the 16th ranked passing attack averaging 242.2 yards per game. Some have conjectured that Ryan Tannehill not having the authority to call his own plays at the line of scrimmage may be hindering the offense and making them far too predictable. Others are wondering why his rushing numbers are down so significantly from last season. Whatever the reason the Dolphins have averaged only 14.6 points per game over their last three contests.


Final Analysis
Those who have included both the Cowboys and Dolphins totals in their NFL picks know that they have a combined 9-9 record with the over cashing just as frequently as the under. But we believe the under will move in front after this game. Tony Romo will not be great in his return. Too much time has passed and he has not been practicing hot and heavy this week which will see him throw the ball away more often than normal when he eyeballs the Miami pass rush.

I believe this will be a game featuring the rush on both sides. Romo will not be tasked with doing too much while the Dolphins have recently gained traction with the running tandem of Lamar Miller and Jay Ajayi. Watch the this one played between the 30-yard markers with the kickers making the difference.

NFL Picks: Play Under 47 at Bovada

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