NFL Picks: Bet Colts Spread Against Jets in Monday Night Football

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, September 21, 2015 2:33 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 21, 2015 2:33 PM UTC

The New York Jets travel to Indianapolis in a matchup of teams who had dichotomous results in Week 1. Lets review the betting odds for tonight as this handicapper is leaning on a spread NFL pick.

Props Offered by:  5Dimes | BetOnline | BookMaker | Bovada | Heritage | GTbets | WagerWeb | SportsBetting | BetDSI

Jets To Score First +140 (best line at BetOnline)
Colts To Score First -155 (best line at 5Dimes)
Longerst FG 44½ Ov -115 (best line at betDSI)
Longerst FG Un +100 (best line at Bookmaker)
Highest Score 1st Half -110 (best line at 5Dimes)
High Score 2H + OT -105 (best line at BetOnline)
1st Score TD -155  (best line at SportsBetting)
FG or Safety +145  (best line at 5Dimes)

New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts (-7/46-) 8:30 ET ESPN
The New York Jets travel to Indianapolis in a matchup of teams who had dichotomous results in Week 1. Under 1st year HC Bowles, the New York Jets won at home 31-10 over the Cleveland Browns. Two key items jump out from the stat sheet. The Jets rushed 36 times for 154 yards, outgaining the Browns 50 yards overland. But, the key to the game was 3 Cleveland QB Manziel TOs. With a (+4) net TO margin for the game, the Jets were nearly assured a victory. 

Just the reverse was happening in Buffalo, where the Bills hosted the Colts in Week 1. Buffalo totally dominated the line of scrimmage, rushing 36 times to Indy’s 17 attempts.  Combined with a 147-64 overland edge, it gave the Bills a near 90% chance to cover the pointspread.  They sealed the deal with a (+3) net TO margin, resulting in a 27-14 Buffalo home field victory.   

Now, the Jets travel to Indy. Normally the public will follow the momentum of Week 1 and back the Jets as an underdog. But, the public has been well indoctrinated into the home field success of Indianapolis, where they are 9-2 ATS as home chalk and 8-1 ATS as Monday Night favorite in this price range. Combined with the 3-13 ATS road dog record by the Jets in non-division frays, the public’s mind is made up in this one!  But what puts it over the top is the well-publicized fact that QB Luck is 14-1 ATS/loss in his career. With those factors in mind, the public is confident that the NFL odds are in their favor tonight. 

That makes the Indianapolis side a dangerous selection, as arguably the most public play of the week. Once again on Sunday, the public took it in the chops.  With over 70% of the bettors on teams like New Orleans, Tennessee, St. Louis, Baltimore, Miami and Arizona (their only winner), it was another great afternoon for the world’s sports books. 

But sometimes, just sometimes, the world is correct and the universe throws the bettors a bone. They will certainly need it, after being wiped out all day on Sunday. For the very contrary thinking surrounding the handicapping of this game, it is impossible to make the Colts a play of any substance tonight. But like I said, sometimes, just sometimes, everybody is right. Maybe it happens in this high-scoring Colts’ win over the New York Jets Monday Night, making the Indianapolis Colts my NFL pick as pointspread winner in Week 2 of NFL MNF.

NFL Pick: Colts

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