NFL Picks: Bet Chiefs to Win & Cover ATS vs. Bengals

Nikki Adams

Saturday, October 3, 2015 9:34 PM GMT

Can Kansas City Chiefs spring a surprise on the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals in week 4 NFL betting? Find out as we preview this matchup and serve up our choice NFL picks.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-2, 1-1 away)
The Kansas City Chiefs rock into Cincinnati on a 1-2 SU record, which includes a 1-1 SU record on the road. They are also 1-2 ATS with a 3.3-point losing margin on average. By and large, most NFL bettors agree the Chiefs could easily have been 2-1 SU going into week 4 NFL betting, but for a late game collapse against the Denver Broncos in week 2.

They had the Broncos on the ropes for the better part of that Thursday Night AFC West showdown and three times enjoyed the lead in the game, only for the Broncos to rally each and every time and level the score. Just as OT looked imminent with the game knotted up 24-24 and seconds left on the clock, Jamaal Charles inopportune fumble proved their undoing as the Broncos scooped up the gift and scored to snatch the 31-24 victory.

Coulda, woulda, shoulda…There’s no sense in crying over spilt beer. Reality is the Chiefs are under .500 going into week 4 and propping up the AFC West jointly with the 1-2 SU Chargers. A loss in this game would plummet them further in the AFC Conference, putting them well outside of the playoff picture that is steadily taking shape and which will only cement further as each week comes and goes.  

 

Cincinnati Bengals (3-0,  2-0 away)
The Cincinnati Bengals burst out of the gates with a 33-13 win over the Raiders in week 1 NFL betting. A convincing start on the season which they backed up with a 24-19 win over the Chargers in week 2 and 28-24 come-from-behind win over the Ravens in week 3. The sum of which has the Bengals striking a rather convincing pose on the NFL boards in most statistical categories.

They are fourth In total offense (1243 yards), fifth in passing (285.0 yards) and eighth in rushing (129.3 yards), all while averaging 28.3 points per game. On the defensive side of the ball, they are 12th in total defense (998 yards), 21st against the pass (256 yards) and fifth against the rush (76.7), all while conceding just 18.7 points per game.

The Bengals lead the AFC North behind their perfect start and have outscored opponents 85-to-56. They are one of seven teams to remain undefeated on the season, a mark they’ll hope to extend into week 5 NFL betting at the expense of the Chiefs.

Where the Bengals are concerned though, it’s not the first time they strike an impressive pose on the stats sheets. More often than not, it proves to be smoke and mirrors. Typically, it’s the suspect play of Andy Dalton that brings them down. No sign of that yet this season as he’s thrown for 866 yards and eight touchdowns with just one pick. But how long can he keep this up?

 

NFL Betting Verdict
Based on the contrasting SU records of this pair on the season along with the home field advantage going to the Bengals, it’s no surprise the hosts are the favorites on the NFL odds board. Bengals opened as the 3-point faves – but have since moved up to 4-points at most sportsbooks – and the total opened on 42.5-points, which has since swelled up to 45-points across the board.

The Chiefs are coming off a 10-point loss to the Packers (38-28) in week 3 NFL betting, failing to cover as the 5.5-point closing road underdogs. In fact that line opened on 6.5-points but with enough NFL bettors piling on top of the Chiefs at that NFL betting line it dropped down by a point. There are those NFL bettors that would look on week 3 NFL betting’s outcome as reason to give the Chiefs a miss in week 4 against the 3-0 SU Bengals. However, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at Lambeau Field on a Monday Night Football billing are a tough prospect for anybody in the league. So there’s no shame in that loss really.

In fact we would maintain they are the smart NFL pick in week 4 both to win SU and cover. Yup, that’s right. They weren’t the smart NFL pick in our books in week 3 (we didn’t pick them), but they practically leap off the page as the smart NFL pick in week 4 at the expense of the Bengals. It’s worth pointing out that the Chiefs are 12-7 ATS on the road since 2013 with a 5.1-point margin of victory.

NFL Picks: Chiefs +4 (-110) and at +170 to win SU at 5Dimes