NFL Picks: Bet on Bills +2 to Snap Bengals Undefeated Start

Steven Suarez

Monday, October 12, 2015 7:48 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 12, 2015 7:48 PM GMT

Still undefeated, the Bengals head to Buffalo to do battle with Tyrod Taylor and the Bills. We're going to break down the NFL odds and see where the edge with a potential ATS play may be.

Odds Overview
The Bengals are still undefeated and they'll enter Week 6 as the favorites on the NFL odds board for this upcoming trip to Buffalo. They're laying two points at a lot of the top sportsbooks, but of course there's plenty of time for the lines to shift throughout the week. There's some key injury concerns in this matchup, namely on the Bills' side with the likes of LeSean McCoy, Karlos Williams and Sammy Watkins.

Those potential absences could have a big effect on the posted total as well, which is currently at 44.5 points. 

 

Buffalo Bills
The win-then-lose trend continued into Week 5 for the Bills, as they followed up a Week 4 loss by beating Tennessee in Week 5. 

It wasn't pretty against the Titans, but a strong defensive effort and some timely plays by Tyrod Taylor were the guiding inspiration. Buffalo stuffed Tennessee's putrid run game, to no one's surprise, and also forced Marcus Mariota into some mistakes, including a game-clinching interception late in the fourth. Taylor, meawhile, was the team's leading rusher (76 yards) and also had made some important throws at key times on their way to the 14-13 win.

Despite missing their best two running backs and their leading wideout too, the Bills found a way to get it done. It remains to be seen if they'll get boosted by the return of any of those guys for a big Week 6 battle with Cincinnati.

 

Cincinnati Bengals
While the Bills have struggled to string wins together, that hasn't been an issue for the Bengals whatsoever. They've won each of their first five games of the season, with their standout victory coming this past weekend in a come-from-behind triumph at home over the Seahawks.

Down 24-7 heading into the fourth quarter, Cincinnati didn't give in and clawed their way back, forcing overtime by scoring 17 unanswered points. Then, in the extra period, a Mike Nugent field goal sealed the deal for the Bengals to keep ther perfect record intact for one more week. Andy Dalton eclipsed the 300-yard mark and accounted for three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing), with both TD grabs going to tight end Tyler Eifert.

It's been a dream start for Marvin Lewis and his Bengals, but there's no room to rest on their laurels, as they face two rather difficult road games (at Buffalo, at Pittsburgh) over the next couple of weeks. Ahead of Week 6, Cincinnati has shown a great balance though, ranking fourth in the NFL in scoring offense (29.6 points per game) and 10th in scoring defense (20.2).

 

ATS Pick
While the Bengals have been formidable offensively, this is not a great matchup for them against the Bills on the road. Buffalo has underperformed on the defensive end generally, but we've seen them be downright dominant at times, and they looked solid on that front in Week 5 against the Titans.

On the other side, this Bills offense is banged up, and those injuries are going to make it tough to put a ton of faith in them, at least at this point in the week. Still, this is definitely a situation worth monitoring throughout the week, as Buffalo would get a big boost if any of McCoy, Williams and/or Watkins are able to go, and they've already proven they can win shorthanded.

For now, we think it's prudent to jump on this kind of number and roll with the Bills as home dogs. They will relish the opportunity to hand Cincinnati their first win, and there's a good chance they'll be healthier than they were in last week's road win. Add Buffalo at +2 to your Week 6 NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills +2 at Bovada

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