NFL Picks: The Best Unders For Season Team Win Totals

Kevin Stott

Thursday, May 7, 2015 12:14 AM GMT

On Sunday, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted its opening 2015 NFL Season Team Win Totals, and after looking at potential Overs in Part 1, let’s now wrap up this two-part Odds examination with the numerous teams which look like good picks for Unders in the Season Team Win Totals marketplace.

Introduction
After looking at some potential Overs in Part 1 of our 2-part focus on 2015 NFL (Regular) Season Team Totals freshly released from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in Las Vegas on Sunday, it’s now time to spend some Quality Time looking at a space in the sports gambling market where it appears there may be some opportunity to make some Future Bets on NFL teams who may go Under their current posted Season Team Win Totals either because of movement the other way (heavier action on Overs moving some actual Team Totals as well as vigorish odds up), past reputations, current rosters and expectations, perceived value in the marketplace or a any combination of those. In essence, this particular Season Team Win Total market—no doubt because of an influx of cash from the so-called Wise Guys and professional sports gamblers—have pretty much seen its numbers flatten out, for the time being at least as the Futures focus should now return to NFL Team Divisional, Conference and individual game odds, with other daily ongoing sports like the NBA Playoffs, the NHL Playoffs, MLB, golf and soccer getting the bulk of the daily betting action. Last year at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook in Sin City—the largest of its kind on the planet and quite possibly the Milky Way galaxy—18 NFL teams saw their Season Team Win Totals go Over with 13 going Under and the AFC East’s Miami Dolphins (8-8) landing smack dab on their posted Total of 8. Expect more teams (between 3 to 7) to land on and Push their Team Totals, obviously depending on what number you got and where and when you made your bet.

Here are the Opening Season Team Win Totals from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, which were released on Sunday, just one day after the conclusion of this year’s NFL Draft Weekend in Chicago. We’ll examine the early NFL odds movement in these numbers from the SuperBook and analyze it all in the near future.

 

AFC—Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Opening Season Team Win Totals
Baltimore Ravens—Opening: 9 (Under -125)

Buffalo Bills—Opening: 8½ (Over -110)

Cincinnati Bengals—Opening: 8½ (Over -110)

Cleveland Browns—Opening: 6½ (Over -110)

Denver Broncos—Opening: 10 (Over -140)

Houston Texans—Opening 8½ (Over -120)

Kansas City Chiefs—Opening: 8½ (Over -110)

Indianapolis Colts—Opening: 10½ (Over -170)

Jacksonville Jaguars—Opener: 5½ (Over -170)

Miami Dolphins—Opener: 9 (Over -110)

New England Patriots—Opener: 10½ (Over -130)

New York Jets—Opener: 7 (Over -140)

Oakland Raiders—Opener: 5½ (Under -140)

Pittsburgh Steelers—Opener: 8½ (Under -130)

San Diego Chargers—Opener: 8 (Over -120)

Tennessee Titans—Opener: 5½ (Under -120)

 

NFC—Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Opening Season Team Win Totals
Arizona Cardinals—Opening: 8½ (Under -150)

Atlanta Falcons—Opening: 8 (Over -120)

Carolina Panthers—Opening: 8½ (Under -135)

Chicago Bears—Opening: 7 (Under -150)

Dallas Cowboys—Opening: 9½ (Under -140)

Detroit Lions—Opening: 8½ (Under -140)

Green Bay Packers—Opening: 11 (Under -130)

Minnesota Vikings—Opening: 7 (Over -130)

New Orleans Saints—Opening: 9 (Under -140)

New York Giants—Opening: 8 (Over -140)

Philadelphia Eagles—Opening: 9½ (Under -140)

San Francisco 49ers—Opening: 7½ (Under -140)

Seattle Seahawks—Opening: 11 (Over -110)

St. Louis Rams—Opening: 7½ (Over -130)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers—Opening: 6 (Under -140)

Washington Redskins—Opening: 6 (Over -110)

 

Why, Why Why? on Unders For These NFL Teams

 

Buffalo Bills 8½ Over -110—AFC
The Buffalo Bills (Last season: 6½; Over, Record: 9-7) really made nice strides in 2014 and won for Over backers, and with some wonderful offseason moves, great fans and a solid Defense, could the Bills possibly make a run at the Super Bowl champion Patriots in the AFC East? Nah. With the Jets and Dolphins also looking like they will be better, and a Week 1 opener at home in Ralph Wilson on Sept. 13 against maybe the most-improved NFL team—on paper or your mobile devices at least—the Indianapolis Colts (Colts -2½, Total: 47½, GTBets), the Bills still project to an 8-8 or maybe even 7-9 team in 2015 with the weight of expectations, the reality of playing in Buffalo, the newfound strength of the division and that small ½ game it seems to be over-lined being the difference. To get to that 9 wins, Buffalo will probably have to split with the Fish and J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets and win at least one of two games against New England and possibly, this opener versus Indy and Andy Luck. To me, the Bill start 0-1, and with that extra ½, getting to 9 wins (for the bet to lose) will be quite the climb, although this team could be a big surprise improvement if everything falls into place. Beating the Colts in Week 1 in Buffalo would do wonders, but I can’t see that happening this season. An 8-8 season and Buffalo barely goes Under the posted 8½ is what my Crystal Football says.

 

Cleveland Browns 6½ Over -110—AFC
The Cleveland Browns (Last season: 6½; Over, 7-9) have to face Denver, San Diego, Kansas City, Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona and St. Louis out of its AFC North Division, and with WR Josh Gordon already suspended, 2014 #1 Pick QB Johnny Manziel looking like a bust and no real great answer at QB, I see disappointment for Cleveland, and a projected 3-13 or 4-12 record. So, much room between the actual SuperBook number and this projection here. The Browns have to play AFC North heavies the Steelers, Ravens and Bengals twice, so this may actually be my favorite play in this marketplace. Cleveland is the type of team that will settle for a bad season, and with Pittsburgh having Ben Roethlisberger, Cincinnati having Andy Dalton and Baltimore having Joe Flacco at QB, heading into the season with Josh McCown, Manziel and Thaddeus Lewis on your depth chart at QB in this Defense-oriented division is dangerous. Bet the Under 6½ here and wait for January. And the Brownies have a fairly tough one out of the gates on Sept. 13 in Week 1 when they travel to the Meadowlands to face the Jets (Jets -2½, Total: 41, GTBets).

 

Indianapolis Colts 10½ Over -170—AFC
The Indianapolis Colts (Last season: 9½; Over, 11-5) and superstar QB Andrew Luck had a nice season last year, primarily by way of their 6-0 mark against its own anemic AFC South. Despite making massive signings (Frank Gore, Andre Johnson) and making a sexy Round 1 Draft pick (Miami of Florida RB Phillip Dorsett) last weekend, this team has failed to really address its dire needs on the OL, and with tough Home games against Houston, Super Bowl champs New England and Tom Brady, Drew Brees and the Saints and former franchise legend Peyton Manning and Denver, along with Road competitive dates with Houston, Buffalo, Miami, Carolina and Pittsburgh, it may be too much for the Horseshoes. Also, Indianapolis should lose at least once in the AFC South (maybe at Houston) this season, and again, this posted number seems to be a ½ game too high, and may even click up another notch as the mercurial juice (-170) on the Over shows. People have been betting the colts (Over) heavily. But the Colts are still a projected 10-6 team in my gut, and wise bettors should be able to shop around and find a pretty healthy + on the juice for this particular Under. And even waiting, or looking, for a sportsbook to move their number on the Colts to 11 and then banging it would almost be like sports betting karate. As mentioned above, Indianapolis opens up the Regular Season on Sept. 13 in Buffalo against the Bills (Colts -2½, Total: 47½, GTBets).

 

New York Jets 7 Over -140—AFC
Granted, the New York Jets (Last season: 7; Under, 4-12) have made some nice moves on the Defensive side of the football, signing Free Agent CBs Darrelle Revis (All-Pro, Patriots) and Antonio Cromartie (Cardinals) and, quite honestly, New York AFC did an incredible job getting some really fantastic picks over the weekend in the NFL Draft (USC DL Leonard Williams, Ohio State WR Devin Smith, Baylor QB Bryce Petty), but I can’t help but think this team will still have serious QB (Geno Smith bruh?) problems this season, and that the Bills and Dolphins are also on the upswing while the Patriots are the defending NFL champions. No rest for the wicked. In what could end up being an absolutely massive game for both teams in Week 1, not only in terms of confidence and potential postseason play, but also in this Season Team Win Totals marketplace, the Jets host the Browns in an AFC inter-divisional tilt and lidlifter at the Meadowlands (Jets -2½, Total: 41, GTBets) on Sunday, Sept. 13. Even if the Jets win that one—and I expect them to—I see the Jets at 6-10, and if they do get to 7 (and finish 7-9) this season, in this market you would Push and at least get your money back.

 

Oakland Raiders 5½ Under 140—AFC
The Oakland Raiders (Last season: 5; Under, 3-13) have a new head coach (Jack Del Rio), signed 49ers Free Agent WR Michael Crabtree and are threatening to run a Hurry-Up Offense this season, but once again, projected as a 5-11 team, it’s that little ½ (game) that could be the big difference between winning and losing a Season Team Win Total on the Silver and Black. With two games apiece against Denver, Kansas City and Southern California rivals, the Chargers and a reputation as heavily penalized team which nobody is scared of which often beats themselves, I see another 5-win (5-11) season in Oaktown. The Raiders open up the 2015 NFL Regular Season at home at the O.co Colisuem against the enigmatic Bengals (Bengals -3½, Total: 44, GTBets) on Sunday, Sept. 13.

 

Atlanta Falcons 8 Over -120—NFC
The Atlanta Falcons open the season off on Sunday, Sept. 13 with a huge NBC night game at home in the Georgia Dome against the Philadelphia Eagles (Eagles -1, Total: 53, GTBets) in terms of not only confidence and momentum, but also in terms of mattering if the Dirty Birds can try to squeeze out a postseason berth as well as this specific Season Team Win Total (8). To me, the city is just not supportive enough and I expect the same-old, same-old from the Falcons—mediocrity. Atlanta’s opponents in the AFC South (Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) should all be a bit better this season, likely meaning that Atlanta takes the brunt of that mathematical hit. I have them projected at 7-9.

 

Arizona Cardinals 8½ Under -150—NFC
There’s heavy vigorish (-150) here on the Arizona Cardinals (Last season: 7½; Over, 11-5), and with a projected 8-8 mark, I say pay the juice as this team will be doubted until it proves it can score. Teams that have trouble scoring have big problems rallying from behind and the Cardinals haven’t done enough to improve that much and the Phoenix metropolitan community still expects only near-greatness despite the phenomenal start last season and improvements made over the last couple of seasons. With two games each against the NFC-champion Seattle Seahawks, the angry 49ers and the upstart Rams, I see More Medium in the Valley of the Sun with St. Louis being the big reason that the Cardinals Season Team Total goes under that posted 8½. But seriously, even a 7-9 or 6-10 season wouldn’t surprise close followers of the NFL. QB Carson Palmer (torn ACL) will be back from injury in 2015, but turning on the Scoring Jets ain’t easy Bubba with so much rust in the pipes. This is a good bet. The Cards host the Saints in Week 1 (Cards -3 Even, Total: 47, GTBets) in a huge game for both teams who have to have sour tastes in their mouths after the way 2014 ended.

 

Chicago Bears 7 Under -150—NFC
Ah, my beloved Chicago Bears (Last season: 8½; Under, 5-11). The #1 Draft Pick (West Virginia WR Kevin White) was a winner, but the mere fact Chicago tried to deal starting QB and contract-burden Jay Cutler to the Tennessee Titans last Thursday—likely in an effort to try to select Oregon QB and Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota with that #2 overall pick—shows that the Bears have no confidence whatsoever in their cigarette-smoking signal-caller. Chicago did hire former Broncos head man John Fox to lead the way, but it could still take some years for the Bears to get it together at Soldier Field. And with the Packers, Lions and Vikings twice, a tough out of conference slate and fans down on the team (a rarity in the Windy City), expectations are low heading in for this team and that’s a good thing for Futures bettors to know. Chicago should be 5-11 or 6-10 if lucky, and if they do go 7-9 somehow, you get your butter back with a Push. Da Bears open the season at Home against those nasty Cheesehead Packers on Sept. 13 (Packers -4½, Total: 50½, GTBets).

 

Minnesota Vikings 7 Over -130—NFC
Ditto what I just wrote about the Bears for their NFC rival North, the Minnesota Vikings (Last season: 6; Over, 7-9). And again, it’s that little ½—I have the Vikings projected to finish at 6-10 or 7-9—which could win this Futures bet. Minnesota has to face the Packers and Lions each twice (along with those aforementioned Bears, who will need the win this meeting in Chicago this season) as well as the NFC-champion Seahawks at Home and Denver and San Francisco on the Road and it’s real tough sledding for Minnesota, although the Home slate this season looks to be pretty appetizing if you’re a Vikings fan. Still, 7 wins seems like a great season for this still rebuilding team which may have an unhappy Adrian Peterson (RB) back in the fold. The Vikings open up the season in Week 1 on the back end of a Monday Night Football (ESPN) doubleheader in San Francisco against the 49ers in what will be an instant must-win game for both scuffling squads (49ers -3½, Total: 41½, GTBets).

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 Under -140—NFC
Yeah they landed Florida State QB and Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston with the NFL Draft’s top overall pick and yeah they should be improved some, but 5-11 or 4-12 may be this team’s ceiling, it working the rookie in at QB in his first season is the plan of attack in Tampa. The Bucs are the Bucs and will always be the Bucs—unless they win the occasional odd Super Bowl against an odd team like the Raiders—and asking 6 wins seems like 1 too many, especially with the Falcons, Saints and Panthers looking to feast off Tampa Bay after the kind of dismal, sub-.500 season the NFC South had in 2014. Luckily, or maybe not so luckily, for the Buccaneers, they open up the season at Home at Raymond James Stadium against the lowly Titans (Buccaneers -2½, Total: 42, GTBets), and could start 1-0. A girl can dream.

 

Washington Redskins 6 Over -110—NFC
The 6 posted here seems low at first glance until you realize we’re talking about the bumbling,fumbling Washington Redskins (Last season: 7½; Under, 4-12) , who will probably be having QB controversies again in Our Nation’s Capital. The schedule draw could benefit the Redskins, but with two games apiece against the Eagles, Cowboys and G-Men, I projected the Redskins having yet another disappointing season (4-12), and with that number a healthy 2 games under the posted 6, this seems like one of the stronger NFL picks, along with the aforementioned Browns (AFC) and Cardinals (NFC). Washington opens the 2015 NFL Regular Season on Sunday, Sept. 13 at Home at FedExField in Landover, Maryland against the AFC’s Miami Dolphins (Dolphins -2, Total: 44½, GTBets).

2015 NFL Season Wins Team Under Picks—AFC: Bills 8½, Browns 6½, Colts 10½, Jets 7, Raiders 5½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

2015 NFL Season Wins Team Under Picks—NFC: Falcons 8, Cardinals 8½, Bears 7, Vikings 7, Buccaneers 6, Redskins 6 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

NFL Week 1 Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -1 over Atlanta Falcons (GTBets)