Best NFL Teams to Bet On in November Since 2008

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, October 30, 2018 9:39 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2018 9:39 PM UTC

All four NFC South teams, including the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, and Buccaneers, are good bets in November during the last decade, but for different reasons. Check out why here. 

An increase in divisional matchups, exaggerated team valuations, regression to the mean, these are all forces that make handicapping NFL spreads enriching in the second half of the season. We’ve compiled the top 10 betting teams in the month of November over the last decade, while uncovering some situations where each has excelled in the market. Take a look:

10. Houston Texans (20-18-2 ATS, 52.6 percent)

The Texans have proven one of the best road bets against the spread in November, going 12-5-1 since 2008. The franchise, in fact, has just two losing ATS Novembers in franchise history (2004, 2010)

9. New Orleans Saints (20-18-2 ATS, 52.6 percent)

The Saints have been an offensive juggernaut with Canton-bound Drew Brees under center for what seems like forever. Scoring rarely dries up in New Orleans during his tenure. If Brees and Co. have an off game late in the year, expect a solid rebound. In November, when the Saints score fewer than four touchdowns in a contest behind Brees, they are 15-5-1 ATS next time out, putting up 30.3 points per game.

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— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) October 28, 2018
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8. Carolina Panthers (20-17-2 ATS, 54.1 percent)

When the Panthers rack up the wins in the first half of the NFL schedule watch out. They are 14-1 SU and 11-3-1 ATS in the last decade squaring off against opponents with a lower winning percentage in November. Thus far, they have a better record than all four of their 2018 November foes (Buccaneers, Steelers, Lions, and Seahawks)

7. Indianapolis Colts (23-17 ATS, 57.5 percent)

The Colts are a dome team, which means they hate playing outdoors when the weather starts to turn in November. Wrong! Indy is 12-5 SU and an eye-opening 14-3 ATS on the road during the month over the last decade. Going off a 1.7-average underdog, only two of its five straight-up losses have been by more than a field goal.

6. Atlanta Falcons (23-17-2 ATS, 57.5 percent)

QB Matt Ryan has led the offense since 2008. If an opponent does not have much of a pass rush, Matty Ice takes advantage. The Falcons are 11-4 SU and 11-2-2 ATS in the month of November when Ryan squares off against a defense accruing fewer than 1.88 sacks per game.

5. San Francisco 49ers (21-15-2 ATS, 58.3 percent)

San Fran is 10-4-1 ATS in November versus franchises from the Eastern time zone, home or away. Perhaps travel to the Bay City in the second half of the season is extra tiring for far away visitors, while the 49ers grow accustom to the long distances when hitting the road. San Fran travels 18,345 miles in 2018, eighth most in the NFL.

4. Minnesota Vikings (23-16 ATS, 59.0 percent)

Minnesota punishes pedestrian opponents in November, going 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS versus those with a 0.5 average margin or less in the last decade. Tread carefully in Week 9 Lions (-2.1) backers.

3. New England Patriots (21-14-2 ATS, 60.0 percent)

Rule No. 1 in NFL betting: never, ever fade New England. It’s no surprise the best team in the league over the last 15-plus years is in the top three of our list. Why? Season after season, teams with sputtering offenses just can’t keep up with QB Tom Brady. With Brady under center, the Patriots are 31-4 SU and 24-10-1 ATS all-time in November against foes posting fewer than 23.5 points per game for the year.

2. Baltimore Ravens (24-15-3 ATS, 61.5 percent)

Head coach John Harbaugh took control of the Ravens in 2008 and fields elite defenses annually. The franchise smothers poor offenses in November in this span, going 12-2 SU and ATS versus teams averaging 20.8 points or fewer. Baltimore allows 13.2 points per game in this situation.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28-13-1 ATS, 68.3 percent)

The perceptive reader may have noticed all four NFC South teams made the November top 10 list. This is due to the fact the division is 36-16-2 ATS in non-divisional road tests since 2008. No team is better than the Bucs in this spot, going 13-4 ATS overall. They are covering a 4.7 average line by a whopping 8.3 points per game. Giants backers beware in Week 11.

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