NFL Picks: Best SU, ATS & Total Plays for Betting Week 4

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, September 30, 2015 6:07 PM GMT

We sift through the NFL odds board in search of the best bets for your NFL picks. Check out our choice matchups before hitting up your choice sportsbook.

Best SU Play: Packers over Niners
After the contrasting accounts the Niners and Packers enjoyed in week 3 NFL betting this game has to be one of the most straightforward NFL picks on the menu. Hence, the rather lopsided NFL betting odds that are currently trading on this game, which have the Packers as the massive -500 road faves in San Francisco. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers put up a clinic against Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs at Lambeau, with Rodgers putting up a 5 TD to lift him atop the NFL pile with 10 TDs, ZERO interceptions and just 3 sacks over three games. By contrast, Colin Kaepernick had a forgettable outing in Arizona. He led his Niners to a woeful 47-7 loss. On the season, he has 4 INT and 8 sacks, but –small consolation though it might be – he’s still well behind Andrew Luck, who leads the league with 7 INTs. The main takeaway from last week’s game was Kaepernick’s inconsistency and uncertainty at the quarterback position. If that spills forth into this game, he and the Niners stand no chance against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who are playing at an entirely different level.
NFL Picks: Packers -500

 

Best ATS Pick: Cardinals over Rams
The Arizona Cardinals opened as the 7-point home chalk over the St. Louis Rams but, interestingly, the spread has been hopping up and down across sportsbooks. Some are trading the Cards as the 6.5-point home chalk while others have gone up to 7.5-points. The Cards are one of the standout teams in the NFL right now with a 3-0 SU and ATS mark boasting a 25.7-point average winning margin. They are posting an average of 40-plus points per game and conceding an average of 16.3-points per game. Carson Palmer has 9 TDS in three games, 2 INT and 1 sack and he ranks fourth overall with a 117.8 passer rating. By contrast, the Rams are struggling something awful behind a two-game losing streak that saw them post just 16 points over two games. They lost to the Redskins in week 2 and the Big Ben-less Steelers in week 3 NFL betting. A 6.5-to-7.5-point spread seems hefty, but if you consider the Cards have been the best performers against the spread since 2014 with a 14-6 ATS record and are 8-2 ATS at home with an 8.2-point winning margin over the same span, this is a spread that is well within their means to cover.
NFL Picks: Cardinals -6.5 (-115) at The Greek


Best Total Pick: Broncos and Vikings to Go OVER
The Broncos take on the Vikings in week 4 NFL betting with odds makers rolling out a rather low total line by the Broncos’ standards. Well, past standards. The Broncos (3-0 SU and ATS) boast an 8.3-point winning margin going into week 3 NFL betting, but if we take the last two weeks into consideration only – when the Peyton Manning and the O-line perked up some – they boast a 9.5-point winning margin. Since week 1, they are averaging 30-points 27.5 points per game. Still, they are 1-2 in O/U betting going into week 4. Vikings are 0-3 in O/U betting through three weeks of NFL betting, but in the last couple of games they are averaging 28.5-points per game.  Despite the NFL betting trends tipping the scale towards the UNDER, we like the OVER against what appears to be a rather low total, ranging from 41.5-to-42.5-points
NFL Picks: OVER 41.5 (-110) Betway