NFL Picks: The Best Overs For Season Team Win Totals

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, May 6, 2015 8:33 PM GMT

On Sunday, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted its opening 2015 NFL Season Team Win Totals, so let’s start this two-part examination of the Odds with some of the league’s 32 teams and make some picks on who may end up having their ending Regular Season Win Totals fall Under these fresh Totals.

Introduction
On Sunday, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in Las Vegas released its 2015 NFL (Regular) Season Team Totals, and, as expected, the numbers put together by Sportsbook manager Ed Salmons and his crack staff of handicappers looks pretty close to the ones we took a look at earlier here at Sportsbook Review from CG Technology and those released already released by the South Point Casino, also here in Sin City, with a handful of teams seeing some differences of ½ game to 1 game in their Openers. Last season, of the 32 teams playing professional football in the NFL, a lopsided 18 saw their Season Team Win Totals go Over at the SuperBook, with 13 going Under and the Miami Dolphins (8-8) landing right on their posted Total of 8. So in a quick, short and simple analysis, there is money to be made in this no-longer niche sports gambling marketplace, but from what I have seen and analyzed since the Super Bowl ended in February, is that it looks like there will be more Unders than Overs this time around. And remember that the people who actually make these numbers were aware—and probably adjusted—to this statistical imbalance seen in the 2014 NFL season, something we will examine in the accompanying story, aptly named, “The Best Unders For Season Team Win Totals,” where I see at least 6, or maybe even 7 NFL teams who look ripe to gop under their posted (Regular) Season Team Win Totals. Hey, we can’t fight the Yin and Yang of Life, that never static and constantly changing balance we are all exposed to, be it in the Weather, Stock Markets, Human Biorhythms, Moods and especially here in Sports Gambling where certain things seem to occur in consistent clumps of Overs and Unders and Favorites and Underdogs. And that Circle of Life in Sports Gambling is best attacked with that in mind, as well as a little Logic, research and Free Thoughts on your own.

So, here are the Opening Season Team Win Totals from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, broken down by conference. We will take a look here at any early NFL odds movement in these numbers and analyze it in the near future.

 

AFC—Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Opening Season Team Win Totals
Baltimore Ravens—Opening: 9 (Under -125)

Buffalo Bills—Opening: 8½ (Over -110)

Cincinnati Bengals—Opening: 8½ (Over -110)

Cleveland Browns—Opening: 6½ (Over -110)

Denver Broncos—Opening: 10 (Over -140)

Houston Texans—Opening 8½ (Over -120)

Kansas City Chiefs—Opening: 8½ (Over -110)

Indianapolis Colts—Opening: 10½ (Over -170)

Jacksonville Jaguars—Opening: 5½ (Over -170)

Miami Dolphins—Opening: 9 (Over -110)

New England Patriots—Opening: 10½ (Over -130)

New York Jets—Opening: 7 (Over -140)

Oakland Raiders—Opener: 5½ (Under -140)

Pittsburgh Steelers—Opening: 8½ (Under -130)

San Diego Chargers—Opening: 8 (Over -120)

Tennessee Titans—Opening: 5½ (Under -120)

 

NFC—Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Opening Season Team Win Totals
Arizona Cardinals—Opening: 8½ (Under -150)

Atlanta Falcons—Opening: 8 (Over -120)

Carolina Panthers—Opening: 8½ (Under -135)

Chicago Bears—Opening: 7 (Under -150)

Dallas Cowboys—Opening: 9½ (Under -140)

Detroit Lions—Opening: 8½ (Under -140)

Green Bay Packers—Opening: 11 (Under -130)

Minnesota Vikings—Opening: 7 (Over -130)

New Orleans Saints—Opening: 9 (Under -140)

New York Giants—Opening: 8 (Over -140)

Philadelphia Eagles—Opening: 9½ (Under -140)

San Francisco 49ers—Opening: 7½ (Under -140)

Seattle Seahawks—Opening: 11 (Over -110)

St. Louis Rams—Opening: 7½ (Over -130)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers— Opening: 6 (Under -140)

Washington Redskins—Opening: 6 (Over -110)

 

AFC and NFC Teams Where Team Totals Going Over Look Somewhat Decent
I have combined the two conferences here, because there just aren’t enough teams I feel good enough about recommending betting the Over on, with the movement (at other sportsbooks worldwide) skewing up so much. To me, this means that there is potential value on the Unders for some of these (ratty) NFL teams, especially on the heels of a season where Sportsbooks saw 18 of the league’s 32 teams go Over their Opening Team Totals at the SuperBook. This is a good thing for the Under bettor in my mind—especially right now in early May—if he or she is willing to put their money on these teams and then just let it sit for some seven months or more (May-January, 2016). As far as the few I do (barely) like to go potentially go Over their posted Totals here at the SuperBook in Las Vegas are the Philadelphia Eagles (Projected: 10-6, SuperBook Total: 9½U -140; the Carolina Panthers (Projected: 9-7, SuperBook Total: 8½) and San Francisco 49ers (Projected 8-8, SuperBook Total 7½U -140) in the NFC and the Baltimore Ravens (Projected: 12-4; SuperBook Total: 9) in the AFC, who look like potentially decent Overs bets, with the Ravens still really sticking out to me like a sore Black-and-Purple thumb for some reason(s). Probably coaching, defense and playing those Orange-clad Ohio teams twice every season.

As far as those San Francisco 49ers, the current perception of slight Value (on the Over) comes from the fact other sportsbooks posted opening Season Team Win Totals of 8½ (that quickly went to 8) for the 49ers, and that number was bet down, logically, with all that has happened to the NFC West franchise, including the departure of Head Coach Jim Harbaugh to his alma mater, the University of Michigan; Free Agent RB Frank Gore signing with the Colts; Free Agent WR Michael Crabtree heading across the Bay to the Oakland Raiders, and, the retirements of LBs Patrick Willis (All-Pro) and 24-year-old Chris Borland, the latter citing fears of Head Trauma as the reason he was leaving the 49ers and the game of professional football after just one season in the NFL. But with a projected Final Record of 8-8 and the SuperBook’s Team Total on the Niners at 7½, there honestly really isn’t much Wiggle Room, but with games against the Giants, Falcons, Bears, Vikings, Lions, Browns, Bengals and division foes Rams and Cardinals twice, prideful San Francisco could very well finish right at .500 and possibly create a middle reality for anyone who was lucky enough to have actually bet the Under 8½ at CG Technology when that operator posted its odds several weeks ago in February.

Some NFL teams where Season team Win Totals Overs bets may have been prudent before but are now just too close to call or the where the perceived value edge has been sucked away are with the Indianapolis Colts (opened at 9½ at CG Technology, opened at 10½ here at the SuperBook); the Miami Dolphins (opened 8 at CG Technology, opened 9 at the SuperBook); the Oakland Raiders (opened 4½ at CG Technology, opened 5½ at SuperBook); and, the Green Bay Packers (opened 9½ at CG Technology, opened 11 at the SuperBook). and I would even lean Under—as we will look at in the next story— with all of those teams now with the possible exception, strangely enough despite a 1½-game spectrum in this market so far, of the Green Bay Packers.

 

Conclusion: This Could Be The Season the Team Total Unders Go 18-13-1
One thing to again remember when placing NFL picks is that these Futures Bets sit out more than half a year (and obviously only hold value if they win), and may take a significant chunk out of your NFL Bankroll if you prefer to wager that way. There is still a great deal that will happen with all of these teams—which have now started to actually take shape, yet are still really just changing versions of their former 2014 NFL selves—between now and Thursday, Sept. 10 when NFL Kickoff 2015 Weekend kicks off with the defending Super Bowl XLIX champion New England Patriots and Tom Brady welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger to Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts to begin defense of their precious gridiron title.

The Bottom Line here for me in this marketplace is that it looks like there will way more teams falling Under these posted NFL Season Win Totals, especially now so that perceptions of some teams have changed and with the Opening Numbers at other sportsbooks having moved ½ to 1 game in some instances. We’ll look at those more than 10 (!) teams which look like Unders in the next story here, to follow (somewhat) immediately.

2015 NFL Season Wins Team Over Picks: Ravens Over 9 (BEST BET), Eagles Over 9½, Panthers Over 8½, 49ers Over 7½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)