NFL Picks: Best Over/Under Betting Value for Wagering on Week 11

Jason Lake

Sunday, November 22, 2015 1:06 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015 1:06 PM UTC

If you're looking for a hot total to add to your Week 11 NFL picks, we've got five nominees for your consideration. Which one is the best value remaining on the board?

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 21: 39-34-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 22-29 Total

In theory, betting on totals is easy. Phase 1: Find the biggest totals on the NFL odds board. Phase 2: Bet the UNDER. Phase 3: Profit. Things never work out quite that easily in real life, though. The profit margins for these bets are pretty narrow when you're working with totals in the 40s, which is where all the totals opened for Week 11.

So we look for other contributing factors. Injuries, weather, betting patterns, computer projections – all grist for the mill. For this very special episode of the BeeVee Awards, we've lovingly hand-selected the five Week 11 matchups we think show the most promise for cashing in. Sadly, only one can be our BeeVee winner. The nominees are:

47.5: Indianapolis at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
45: Tampa Bay at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
45: Kansas City at San Diego (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS)
44.5: Green Bay at Minnesota (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX)
49: Cincinnati at Arizona (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

And the winner is: Cincinnati at Arizona! And a well-deserving winner, too. Keep in mind, we've already made some juicy NFL picks on some other Week 11 totals here at the ranch, so we're not saying this matchup is the juiciest of them all. But there are enough compelling reasons contained therein for us to recommend the UNDER with some confidence.

I Like to Move It, Move It
First and foremost, you've got that total. It's not massive, but it's pretty high up there. This game opened at 47 points and saw 100 percent of first responders jump on the OVER, driving the total to where it is at press time. Moving above 47 and 48 points is nothing to sneeze at.

Second, you've got that Bengals defense, which has allowed just 10 points in each of the last three games since the bye, leading to three straight paydays for the UNDER. Football Outsiders has Cincinnati ranked No. 8 overall (No. 9 pass, No. 10 rush) in defensive efficiency through Week 10. Arizona has an even-stronger defense at No. 6 overall (No. 4 pass, No. 8 rush), but the betting public knows the Cards more for their offense.

Which brings us to our third factor: Arizona's offensive line. LG Mike Iupati will indeed be playing Sunday night after suffering that awful-looking stinger in last week's win over the Seattle Seahawks. However, RG Jonathan Cooper (knee) is still expected to miss this game after sitting out Friday's practice. On top of that, WR Michael Floyd (hamstring) is considered a game-time decision after not practicing all week. Smoke screen? Possibly, but we'll take our chances with a small wager. May the prolate spheroid be with you this weekend.

Free NFL Pick: Take UNDER 49 (-105) at Bovada

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