Sunday has come and gone and we only have two games left before Week 1 of the NFL season is in the books. The NFL Odds were kind to us and our NFL picks for team props yesterday, however my player prop picks were the only ones that went up in flames. Since we are still profitable for the weekend, let’s see if we can chance some of those winnings tonight to cap off Week 1 with a nice starting bankroll. I am 4-4 on prop bets this week and down slightly in that area going into Monday. These NFL Odds come from Bet365.
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Desean Jackson – O/U 70.5 receiving yards
Even though in the last few years of Andy Reid, Desean Jackson became an exclusive deep threat, with Chip Kelly in the head coaching chair, and without Jeremy Maclin for the season, Jackson is the only receiver with a relationship with Michael Vick. I think Kelly will get creative getting Jackson the ball. The Redskins secondary is not that great, and if Vick can stay upright long enough to get Jackson the football, 71 or more receiving yards are a nice value here. He was getting around 9 targets per game last season under Reid, and that was with a healthy Maclin. That number could easily go up, making this bet more valuable.
Even though I missed on a value pick like this with David Wilson last night, I think we can get it back with Jackson tonight. He went for at least 71 receiving yards per game in half of his games last season, and seeing as there is no where to go but up from that performance, this one looks good. DeAngleo Hall is quickly on the decline, and all Jackson has to do is beat him 3-4 times to get over 70 yards for this game. As long as he hangs onto the ball before going into the end zone, the Eagles will be fine.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 70.5 receiving yards (-125)
Antonio Gates – Will he score a TD?
At even money, Gates scoring a touchdown seems to have some great sports betting value. Much like Jackson’s value is benefiting from a teammates’ ACL tear, Gates will benefit from the preseason loss of Danario Alexander, and it will start in this contest. Much like Jackson with Vick, Gates is the only pass catcher with a true rapport with Phillip Rivers. Outside of Vincent Brown, (who missed all of last season with a broken leg) the Chargers have no one to throw it to other than Gates. Plus, even though his numbers have gone down in the last two seasons, he still is averaging a touchdown catch almost every other game.
He might have to stay in and block a lot on the ferocious JJ Watt from time to time, so don’t expect a big yardage day from him. However, in his career he has 147 games played and 83 touchdowns. If the Chargers get in the red zone a few times, Gates will be open somewhere. He also has scored a touchdown in his last three games in a row.
My Pick: ‘Yes’ (+100)
Chargers vs. Texans – First to 10 points
While I could see the Chargers hanging around, their offense is going to be far from high powered, especially if the Texans’ defense shows up. Even though the chalk is high at -140, I think the Texans are a solid bet to be the first team to ten points. If you choose the Chargers, the NFL Odds are only +115, which are not great odds either considering the circumstances.
Houston was 10-6 last season cashing this prop bet, and before their mid-late season collapse, in the first nine weeks, they went 5-0 and 8-1 being the first team to 10 points in their games. Tonight on national television, the Texans will start the season off with a bang.
My Pick: Texans (-140)