NFL Picks: Best Betting Trends to Come out of Week 5 on Top

Nikki Adams

Monday, October 5, 2015 6:50 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 5, 2015 6:50 PM UTC

We examine some of the guiding NFL betting trends for week 5 matchups, those that can impact your NFL picks decisions mainly. Find out what those are before heading to your bookie.

Colts vs. Texans
The Colts are dialled into this AFC South clash having won five on the trot. Last season, they swept the series winning a shootout in Houston 33-28 and then 17-10 at Lucas Oil Stadium. The shootout in Houston though marked the second time the Colts won a thriller over the Texans on the road. In 2013 they won 27-24 in Houston – both road games had the Colts come through as the 1-to-2-point road faves and the OVER cashing.

This season’s instalment of the Colts though is definitely underwhelming, as are the Texans mind. The Colts are just 2-2 SU on the season, behind a lucky win in week 4 NFL betting over the Jacksonville Jaguars in OT without Andrew Luck at quarterback. The Texans are just 1-3 SU, coming off a 48-21 loss to the Falcons, a game in which the Texans resurrected Brian Hoyer at quarterback after the Falcons built up a 42-0 lead at the expense of Ryan Mallet.

Neither team is playing particularly well yet, so this game is completely and utterly up for grabs you’d think. It’s also quite the tossup on your NFL picks. Andrew Luck is currently listed as 50-50 to play this Thursday Night showdown. Will Brian Hoyer get a second start on the season? After putting up 21 points last Sunday, you’d think he earned a second chance.


Bills vs. Titans
The Bills are 2-2 SU and ATS through the first four weeks of the season but coming off a loss to the NY Giants all while installed as the home favorites. Tennessee Titans are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS, coming off a Bye week. Head-to-head the Titans have the 6-1 edge over the Bills in the last seven meetings between these two sides but with an important caveat: the last meeting came in 2012. Both these sides have undergone wholesale changes that make the H2H rather irrelevant. Mariota and the Titans very nearly upset the Colts in week 3 NFL betting while the Bills upset the Colts in week 1 NFL betting. The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo’s last 12 games but they are 2-2 in O/U betting this season. Tennessee have hit the OVER in all three games so far, which makes a strong case for the OVER on your NFL picks assuming the total is reasonably positioned.


Bears vs. Chiefs
The Bears are coming off their first win of the season to improve to 1-3 SU and ATS with a 14.2-point losing margin. The Chiefs, by contrast, have slipped to their third straight defeat and a 1-3 SU and ATS record with a 6.2-point losing record. That said with home advantage the Chiefs have the edge in this game on the NFL odds board. They are 6-2 SU in their last 8 home games and they are 6-3 ATS since 2014 at home with a 7.3-point margin of victory. The Chiefs are 4-5 in O/U betting at home since 2014.


Browns vs. Ravens
The Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens jointly prop up the AFC North with a 1-3 SU record. The Browns are 2-2 ATS this season with a 4.2-point losing margin while the Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS with a 2.8-point margin of defeat. Crucially, the Ravens avoided a 0-4 SU start to the season with an overtime win over the Steelers. Ravens are 5-0 SU at home over the Browns in the last five meetings at AT&T and 6-2 SU in their last 8 home games.


Jaguars vs. Buccaneers
The Jaguars and Buccaneers are both looking for only the second win of the season when they collide in week 5 NFL betting. The Jaguars are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS with an 11.2-point losing margin, a result skewed by the crushing defeat to the Patriots in week 3 NFL betting. The Buccaneers are 1-3 SU and ATS with an 11.2-point losing margin, largely down to double digit losses in the corresponding three games. Jaguars are 0-5 SU in their last five road appearances and 4-5-1 ATS since 2014. The Buccaneers are still searching for their first home win since 2013. They are riding a ten-game losing streak at home and are just 2-8 ATS with an 11.8-point losing margin. Both teams come into week 5 riding two-game losing streaks.


Saints vs. Eagles
Both the Saints are 1-3 SU going into week 5 NFL betting. The Saints are coming off a 26-20 win in OT over the Cowboys and take a 2-2 ATS record with a 4.5-point margin of defeat on average. The Eagles are 1-3 SU and ATS after failing to clinch their second straight win with a narrow 23-20 loss to the Redskins. That said the Saints are 5-10 SU in their last 15 games on the road and the total has cashed on the OVER in 7 of their last 10 road games. The Eagles are 0-1 SU and ATS at home this season but 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS since 2014, with a 7.2-point margin of victory at home.


Seahawks vs. Bengals
The Seattle Seahawks are yet to play MNF with the Lions. Barring week 4’s clash and outcome, they are currently 1-2 SU and ATS on the season with a 4.3-point margin of victory thanks to a crushing 26-0 win over the Bears in week 3 NFL betting. The Cincinnati Bengals, however, are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS this season with a whopping 11-point margin of victory. This is the first meeting between these two teams since 2011. Bengals have seen the OVER hit in six of their last 8 home games.


Rams vs. Packers
The Green Bay Packers are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS this season with a 10.5-point margin of victory. At Lambeau, they are nigh unbeatable with a perfect 11-0 SU record since 2014 that includes a league-leading 8-2-1 ATS mark with a 16.4-point margin of victory. Each and every time over this run of form the Packers were installed as the firm home faves and came through for their backers. The Rams are 2-2 SU this season after taking down a pair of NFC West giants – Seattle and Arizona. That said they are 2-2 ATS with a 3.8-point losing margin. The Rams are 4-9 SU in their last 13 road games and 2-7 SU in the last nine meetings with the Packers at Lambeau.


Redskins vs. Falcons
The Redskins are coming off a last-gasp win over the Philadelphia Eagles. They’ll be looking to clinch their second straight win at the expense of the Atlanta Falcons. However, Dan Quinn’s team is fast looking to be one of the surprise packages this season, taking a perfect 4-0 SU record and ATS mark, which includes an 11-point winning margin. It’s fair to say many of the recent stats don’t count here as both teams are essentially different this season. Redskins are relying on Kirk Cousins rather than RGIII at quarterback and Falcons have brought in defensive guru Dan Quinn from Seattle to be the team’s head coach. Based on current form though, it looks to be a no-brainer for your NFL picks. Falcons across the board.


Cardinals vs. Lions
The Arizona Cardinals were upset by the St. Louis Rams in week 4 NFL betting 24-22. They slip to a 3-1 SU and ATS mark as a result but they still boast the biggest margin of victory on average through the first four weeks that is 18.8-points. The Lions are winless through three rounds, a mark that many NFL bettors expect to extend to 0-4 following MNF against Seattle. It remains to be seen whether the Lions will be 0-4 SU or 1-3 SU going into week 5 NFL betting, but current form is abysmal. The team has no pulse this season and has played with all the intensity of a ferocious kitten.


Broncos vs. Raiders
The Broncos take on divisional rivals Oakland Raiders in week 5 NFL betting, a clash the Broncos have had the better of in recent seasons. Denver are 6-1 SU against the Raiders in the last seven meetings in Oakland and the total has gone OVER in 8 of the last 11 meetings when playing the Raiders. Last season, the Broncos swept the series 47-14 at Mile High and 41-17 in Oakland. Need one say more?


Patriots vs. Cowboys
The Patriots are coming off a Bye Week. What should have been a blockbuster showdown between Tony Romo and Tom Brady is now the sexy matchup between Brandon Weeden and Tom Brady. Patriots are the defending Super Bowl Champions. They are playing like they are the team to beat this season and take a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS mark to Dallas, which includes a 16.3-point margin of victory. The Cowboys are 2-2 SU after losing to the Saints in week 4 NFL betting in OT.


Niners vs. Giants
The Niners are a woeful 1-3 SU and ATS this season, sporting the biggest losing margin of 15.5-points. They’ve been taken to the woodshed in their last two games by the Cardinals and Giants and have hit some pretty disturbing statistics and numbers, particularly Colin Kaepernick, whose confidence seems to have gone MIA. The Giants are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS this season with a 5-point winning margin on average. Niners are a measly 1-4 SU on the road in their last five outings. Giants are 1-1 SU at home this season with a 3.5-point winning margin and 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS at home since 2014.


Steelers vs. Chargers
The Steelers are 2-2 SU and 3-0-1 ATS this season with a 5.2-point margin of victory. They are coming off a loss in week 4 NFL betting to the Ravens, a game that featured the debut of Michael Vick at quarterback in place of an injured Big Ben. Steelers are 8-2 SU in their last ten meetings with the Chargers, but that could be a moot point in this Monday Night Showdown. Not to mention, the Chargers are 10-3 SU in their last 13 home games but 4-6 ATS with a 5.3-point margin of victory in their last ten home games. The total is has gone 5-5 O/U in the last ten home games.

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