NFL Picks: Best ATS Plays for Week 3

Nikki Adams

Saturday, September 26, 2015 12:06 AM GMT

We look at Sunday’s slate of NFL betting and spot potential sleeper NFL picks, games that could go against the market grain. Check out which matchups we’re spotting before you place your bets.

San Diego vs. Minnesota
One of the most expensive quarterbacks in the game today, Philip Rivers, takes his Chargers to Minnesota as the decisive underdogs against the spread. NFL odds opened on 2-points with the Vikings to the good and since opening doors that line has bounced around anywhere from 1-point at 5Dimes to 2.5-points at Bovada and Bet365, amongst others.

It’s quite the discrepancy from sportsbook to sportsbook, but what is unsettling about it is the fact that Chargers are at the disadvantage in all cases. How is it that the Chargers organisation would splash so much money on a quarterback when he doesn’t get the respect of bookies in a matchup that features a second-year quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, leading the Vikings? Surely, a quarterback that is worth so much money should put up in such a matchup.

Put another way: are the Vikings the team we saw in week 1 that couldn’t put up much of a fight against the Niners? Or the team we saw in week 2 that manhandled the Detroit Lions. It’s our opinion that they are the team we saw in week 1, which has us thinking the Chargers are the value NFL pick as the road underdogs.

NFL Picks: Chargers +2 at Bookmaker

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Buffalo vs. Miami
The Buffalo Bills have been one of the standouts in the early weeks of the NFL betting season. Granted they are 1-1 SU after two rounds, but they threw down the gauntlet with an upset win over the Colts and showed their mettle by giving the Patriots all they could handle in week 2. The Dolphins, meanwhile, took care of the Redskins in week 1 but failed to overcome the Jaguars in week 2. Ndamukong Suh hasn’t made much of an impression and their ability to run the ball leaves something to be desired. Now, they might get it together in week 3 for this divisional matchups which could prove deciding in the NFC East down the stretch, but you have to like what the Bills are doing right now. Their vaulted defense is nothing to sniff at and Tyrod Taylor has been stellar as the starting quarterback, better than most would have expected. Three points, therefore, is a lot to be giving up to the Bills that have shown they can hang with the best in the league.  

Most sportsbooks are offering the Bills at 3-points with the ML NFL odds sitting almost unanimously at -120. If there’s one observation to make about the NFL season so far it’s s that there have been many surprises.  Results have invariably gone against certain expectations, which has us thinking this is one of those games that might not even be as close as the odds makers would suggest.

If you agree with our assessment, you might agree with us that the Bills are the smart NFL pick to both win and cover. In which case, giving up half a point with 5Dimes to take the 2.5-point spread at +105 NFL odds seems like the savvy move. Don’t you think? 

NFL Picks: Bills +2.5 at 5Dimes

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