NFL Picks: Best ATS Bets Available for Week 10 Wagering Action

Darin Zank

Sunday, November 15, 2015 2:53 PM GMT

Sunday, Nov. 15, 2015 2:53 PM GMT

This handicapper's basic NFL handicapping tools lead us to a lucky seven picks against the NFL odds for Week 10. We share them here, because we care.
 

Ground It Out
Our preference for teams that can run the ball, and stop the run, leads us to our first three picks against the Week 10 NFL odds.

Carolina and Tennessee are both coming off big wins last week, the Panthers beating the Packers, the Titans upsetting New Orleans. But Carolina leads the NFC at 8-0, while Tennessee is a 2-6 team in search of a future.

The Panthers, thanks in part to quarterback Cam Newton, and in part to a gang-attack defense, is outrushing opponents this season by 34 yards per game. Carolina has also outrushed seven of eight opponents. The Titans, on the other hand, are getting outrushed by 10 yards per game, and have been out-grounded three of their last four times out.

Moving on, St. Louis, with an emerging combination of running back Todd Gurley and one of the best young defenses in the league, is outrushing foes by 32 yards per game. The Rams outrushed Minnesota last week, the sixth game in a row they've done so, although they lost to the Vikings in overtime.

Chicago, meanwhile, just outrushed San Diego Monday night and won 22-19. But that was the first time the Bears had done that in a month, and only the third time all season. They're also missing Matt Forte again, and playing on the short week.

Finally, Cincinnati is outrushing opponents this season by 15 YPG, while Houston is getting outgrounded by 36 YPG.

Free NFL Picks: Panthers -4 at Heritage, Rams -6.5 at BetOnline & Bengals -10.5 at Bookmaker

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Live Dogs
Dallas is 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS since losing quarterback Tony Romo to that shoulder injury. But several of those losses have been close, including last week's 33-27 defeat against Philadelphia in overtime. The Cowboys also lost by one point to Seattle, and in overtime against New Orleans.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is still a very unpredictable outfit; when Jameis Winston isn't turning the ball over, the Bucs are alright; but when he is, they're in trouble. Perhaps he'll turn the ball over a couple of times Sunday?

Moving on, Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles recently said he thinks the Jags are close to making a jump, and believe it or not, he might be right. Jacksonville has lost six games this season, but we'd call five of them “close,” including a 28-23 decision against the Jets last week in which the Jags outgained New York by 146 yards. Baltimore, meanwhile, is just one big question mark at the moment, and just lost WR Steve Smith for the season to a torn Achilles.

Finally, Minnesota is quietly 6-2 SU, tied for first place in the NFC North with Green Bay, and 7-1 ATS, after beating the Rams in overtime last week. And it looks like quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who got knocked out last week, will play this week. Oakland, meanwhile, must be drained to some degree, after losing at Pittsburgh last week 38-35. And the Raiders, while making progress, have actually been outgained four of their last five times out.

Free NFL Picks: Cowboys pick 'em at BetOnline, Jags +5 at GTBets & Vikings +3 at Heritage

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On the Rebound
Denver just suffered its first loss of this season last week, 27-24 at Indianapolis. And yes, Peyton Manning is not the QB he once was. But Denver leads the league in total defense, and owns a 7-0 mark against Kansas City, 5-2 ATS, since Manning joined the team. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have won their last two games, but the first came against a Pittsburgh team without Big Ben, while the second came against Detroit; 'nuff said.

Free NFL Pick: Broncos -4.5 at Pinnacle

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