NFL Picks: Bengals with the Edge at Home vs. Browns

Jeff Grant

Thursday, November 6, 2014 1:07 PM GMT

Cleveland has failed to win a AFC North road game since 2008, which makes Cincinnati the clear choice as the NFL Thursday Night pick at Paul Brown Stadium.

Playing Solid Football
Cleveland has won four of five games since its bye week, which is important to consider when looking over the Week 10 NFL Odds, as it comes off a 22-17 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as seven-point home favorites Sunday.

For just the second time since the team returned in 1999, the Browns possess a 5-3 SU record, while their five wins have already surpassed last year’s win total of four.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise is 1-6 SU and 4-2-1 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points, with the OVER going 5-2 in that situation.

 Our NFL handicappers share free props bets for Thursday's game here.

Back to Normal
Cincinnati has won back-to-back games since suffering through a 0-2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS stretch, which can’t be ignored when making your NFL pick, as it gets set to close out a three-game home stand.

The Bengals have won 15 of 22 meetings in this AFC North rivalry with Marvin Lewis on the sidelines, while Dalton has produced a 4-2 SU mark by completing 63.5 percent of his passes for 1,349 yards and 11 touchdowns with seven interceptions in six match-ups.

Since the start of the 2012 campaign, the squad is 14-2 SU and 11-4-1 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, with the OVER going 10-6 in those 16 opportunities.

 

Life On the Road
Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer has gone 8-3 as a starter since last season, but that may not be enough to cover this number Thursday, as the team hasn’t won a road game versus a division opponent since Sept. 28, 2008.

Cleveland needs to be able to run the football against a stop unit that ranks 30th in the league in allowing 139.6 yards per game on the ground, but it has gained just 158 yards in that category in three games since losing center Alex Mack.

 

Hill is Capable 
The Bengals are a dominating 13-0-1 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 regular season home games, but they’ll be playing without the services of some key players in this affair, including No. 1 running back Giovani Bernard.

Rookie Jeremy Hill has proven to be a capable replacement, as he’s averaging 4.7 yards per carry and leads all rookie running backs with five touchdowns, while he hasn’t fumbled the football in his last 459 touches dating back to his days at LSU.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Bengals as one of their NFL primetime picks, as they’ve gone 7-2 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 to 7 points the last two-plus seasons.

Free NFL Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -6 at Pinnacle