NFL Picks: Bears Will Send Lions to 0-6 Start

Nikki Adams

Saturday, October 17, 2015 10:17 PM GMT

Will the Detroit Lions finally get into the win column when they welcome John Fox and the Chicago Bears to Ford Field? Let’s breakdown this NFC North matchup, complete with NFL picks.

Chicago Bears (2-3, 1-1 away)
The Chicago Bears are riding a two-game winning streak into week 6, against the odds no less. In week 4, they finally snapped the negative trend by beating the Oakland Raiders at home all while installed as the 3-point home pups. In week 5, they masterminded an even bigger upset by edging the Kansas City Chiefs 18-17 at Arrowhead all while installed as the whopping 10.5-point road pups.

The obvious question NFL bettors are asking: can the Bears keep the momentum going, win their third straight game and improve to .500 on the season?

The simple answer, yes. Before them is an opponent that is mired in an existential crisis, winless on the season in five rounds and in very real danger of slipping to a sixth straight loss based on their rather lacklustre performance on both sides of the ball in previous games. Nothing about the Lions this season inspires confidence. Offensively they are one-dimensional and defensively they are largely ineffective.

Granted last season the Lions were one of the teams to beat in the NFC North, finishing second overall and moving into the playoffs. That was then. So far down the ladder have the Lions fallen they’ll have all to do to get back into contention. The Bears must therefore fancy their chances of heaping more misery on their divisional rivals.

Interestingly, the odds makers are having none of it. The Lions are installed as the firm favorites on the NFL odds board trading as the 3-point home chalk, up from an opening 2.5-points. The public agrees, so it would seem at Vegas Insider So far they’ve recorded 63% of the money coming down the wire going towards the Lions to cover the field-goal spread.

 

Detroit Lions (0-5, 0-2 home)
How the Detroit Lions can be favored by 3-points at home when they are winless on the season and just 1-4 ATS with a 6.4-point losing margin is beyond us. It doesn’t make any sense. The only explanation for it is odds makers must be completely and utterly unconvinced by the Chicago Bears and their current surge in form to even consider sending them into this game as the 3-point road underdogs.

Let’s begin by saying that such an outlook is unwarranted and unsubstantiated. By the stats, the Lions are stinking up just about every relevant category.  While they might be ranked 23rd in total offense with 1606 yards they’ve only scored 16.6 points per game, making most of those yards simply garbage yards. The pass is ranked ninth with 272.4 yards per game but the rush props up the league with a paltry 48.8 yards per game! Once again, that’s all complemented by the third worst scoring average of 16.6 per game in the league.

On the defensive side of the ball, they are 22nd with total defense of 1877 yards, 17th against the pass with 248.9 yards per game allowed and 27th against the rush with 126.6 yards per game allowed. However, they are conceding 27.6 points against, which is the sixth worst in the league.

To be fair, the Chicago Bears are conceding 28.4 points per game according to the stats sheet through five games, which puts them even lower than the Lions. However, the Bears are riding a two-game winning streak into this clash, which sends them into this game with some confidence rather than desperation. That could prove deciding over the Lions.

 

NFL Betting Verdicts
The public may be heavy on the Lions in this game, but we’re fading the public and shading the Bears on our NFL picks. Simply on a matter of principle: winning begets winning. So the Lions have a must-win game. We’re not saying that they can’t come through for their NFL backers. They might. Anything can happen on any given Sunday. But from a purely NFL betting perspective, in terms of value on your NFL picks, a losing team trading as a favorite on the NFL betting floor offers no value at all. By comparison, a team on a winning streak matched as the underdog against the spread, not to mention with the juice set to EVEN money….,well, that is just too good to pass up.

NFL Picks: Bears +3 (+105) at 5Dimes

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