NFL Picks: Bears vs. Steelers Betting the Total

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, September 18, 2013 7:38 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 18, 2013 7:38 PM UTC

My pick on the spread is set to come out later in the week, so let’s take a look at some of the factors regarding the total in this one and see if there is any value for the game Sunday evening.


NFL Picks: Bears vs. Steelers total pick

The Sunday night game features the Bears and Steelers from Pittsburgh this week, and the NFL Odds favor the road Bears at -2 ½, with a total of 40 points.

Grizzly offense, tired defense

The Bears have started the season averaging over 27 points per game, and with an offensive line that looks completely remade, and the playmakers behind him, Jay Cutler is starting to make a case for some money come next season. While they bested one AFC North opponent already this year, can they do it again, this time on the road? The Steelers have an imposing defense just like the Bengals, but the Bears’ offense has too many weapons right now. I don’t think three touchdowns are out of the question for Chicago in this game.

A big reason for that is going to be the Steelers’ offense, which is partially in shambles right now. They can’t protect and they can’t run the ball. They are averaging 37.5 rushing yards per game through two games, and on the flip side, they are giving up nearly 120 rushing yards per game on defense.

Some have speculated that this could be a low scoring game because of Pittsburgh’s offense and both sides’ defenses. However I am in the thought pool that the Bears could grab ahold of this game and drop some serious points, leading to a play on the over being the best bet.

Be sure to hop back and check my opening odds on this game~

The Sharp Pick

The Bears have cashed the ‘Over’ in six of their last seven road games, and the reason for that is because their defense normally doesn’t play as well on the road. They are still a fantastic unit, but in those seven games, the Bears gave up about 19 points per game. If the Steelers can get to even 14 or 17 in this game, I think the total can go over, based solely on the Bears’ new offense under Marc Trestman.

Jay Cutler has been sacked only once in the first two games of the season. Last year in the first two games he was sacked nine times by now. Defenses can not chose between stopping Matt Forte or Brandon Marshall, because the other one will kill you no matter what. Chicago also has the services of Martellus Bennett, who has done nothing expect score three touchdowns in the first two games.

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I’m projecting a final score of 26-21 in favor of the Bears in this game, making the ‘Over’ the play here. The Bears already have 734 yards of total offense through three weeks of the season, and the Steelers offense is being slightly undervalued here. With not being able to run the ball, they will have to throw more and more in this game. The Bears’ corners are great, but with the volume coming their way in this game, I think they will yield some points in this one.

My Picks: ‘Over’ 40 at Bet 365

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