NFL Picks: Bears vs. Rams Keeping Scores Low in Week 10

Kevin Stott

Friday, November 13, 2015 7:09 PM GMT

Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears head into St. Louis on Sunday afternoon to face the Rams in a Week 10 game important to both sides. Is backing the Under the logical NFL pick here this weekend? 

Odds Overview
What: NFL Week 10—Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams
Where: Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis
When: Sunday, November 15, 2015
Time: 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST
TV: CBS, Directv 709, NFL RedZone
Satellite Radio: SiriusXM Bears—SIRI 135 (Internet 805), Rams—SIRI 93 (Internet 828)
Weather: (Dome—Artificially controlled, mall-like conditions in the low 70°’s)
Point Spread Range: Rams -7 to -7½
Current High Total in Marketplace: 42½ (Almost everywhere)
Consensus Total in Marketplace: 42½
Current Low Total in Marketplace: 42 (BetGrande, Jerry’s Nugget, Wynn Las Vegas)
Alternate Total: Under 43 -115, Over 43 +100 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 43½ -138, Over 43½ +105 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 44 -150, Over 44 +110 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 44½ -162, Over 44½ +125 (bet365)

 

Current Realities Heading Into This Game
The Chicago Bears (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) and QB Jay Cutler head to St. Louis on Sunday afternoon to face the upstart St. Louis Rams (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) and sensational Georgia Rookie RB Todd Gurley (118 rushes, 664 yards, 4 TDs) in this NFC interdivisional Week 10 affair from the Gateway City. In their last game, the Bears knocked off Philip Rivers and the Chargers in San Diego on Monday night at Qualcomm Stadium as Cutler (25-41 ATS on Road) rallied for a 22-19 win in primetime as Rookie (Michigan State) RB Jeremy Langford (18 rushes, 72 yards TD; 3 receptions, 70 yards, 23.3 ypc) had a breakout game for Chicago (500/1 to win Super Bowl, Coral). Vanderbilt product Cutler also made very nice use of WR Alshon Jeffery (10 receptions, 151 yards, 15.1 ypc), TE Martellus Bennett (8 receptions, 57 yards, TD) and TE Zach Miller (2 receptions, 23 yards, TD) and if Chicago can keep playing the Defense it has of late and the Offense can get monster games from Cutler, Jeffery, Bennett and now Langford, the Bears could ruin some other NFL teams Playoff chances. With WR Marquess Wilson, WR Eddie Royal (Injured), RB Matt Forte, RB Ka’Deem Carey (7 rushes, 28 yards), speedy WR Jacquizz Rodgers (Arm, Injured-Reserve List) and Rookie Kevin White (West Virginia), this team’s Roster is now loaded and if and when Chicago gets all these guys going, look out NFL. But probably not this year although the Bears may now think of keeping gunslinger Cutler.
In their last game (Week 9), the Rams suffered a tough OT loss in Minneapolis as the Vikings won another game on a Blair Walsh FG. This Rams team has always played in the image of its Head Coach, Jeff Fisher (29-27 ATS), but with the defending NFC champion Seahawks and Russell Wilson, the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers all in the NFC West, it seems it’s always going to be tough sledding for this franchise. One thing which has been really solid for St. Louis this season has been the Defense, which has only allowed 146 points, the 3rd-lowest total in the NFC (Seahawks, Vikings both at 140) while starting QB Nick Foles (10-11 ATS at Home) and the Rams Offense has got a pleasant surprise in the stellar play of Rookie (Georgia) RB Gurley. And with other skill guys like Austin, Brian Quick, Kenny Britt, Tre Mason and Jared Cook, the Rams have some nice and underrated parts with which to work. Here are the L10 scores between the Rams (66/1 to win Super Bowl, Betway) and Bears, as we try to handicap the Total here in a game in which it’s hard to see a shootout evolving.

 

Final Scores in Last 10 Meetings in Chicago Bears-St. Louis Rams
2013—@ Rams 42 Bears 21 Total—45½ Result—Over
2012—@Bears 23 Rams 6 Total—42 Result—Under
2009—@ Bears 17 Rams 9 Total—41 Result—Under
2008—@ Rams 27 Bears 3 Total—44½ Result—Under
2006—Bears 42 @ Rams 27 Total—40½ Result—Over
2003—Rams 23 @ Bears 21 Total—41½ Result—Over (by 2½ points)
2002—@Rams 21 Bears 16 Total—44 Result—Under
1999—@ Rams 34 Bears 12 Total—46½ Result—Under (by ½; Trans World Dome, St. Louis)
1998—Rams 20 @ Bears 12 Total—36½ Result—Under
1997—Bears 13 @ Rams 10 Total—42 Result—Under

 

Recent Relevant Series Trends and Game Expectations
As you can see, when these two Midwestern teams play, the Under is a very strong 7-3 ATS over the L10, although the last meeting (2013) rocketed over the posted Total by 17½ points as the Rams and WR Tavon Austin defeated Chicago, 42-21 in 2013 here at the Edward Jones Dome in the Gateway City, easily covering the 2½-point spread in 2013. In 2012, the Bears won 23-6, at Home at Soldier Field in Chicago, covering ATS as 7-point favorites in the Windy City. The Bears are 5-2 ATS the L7 against St. Louis and Chicago is 3-1 ATS the L4 on the Road at St. Louis, that lone cover for the Rams coming in that aforementioned last meeting. This could evolve into a really good game and the Bears—who will again be without veteran RB Matt Forte—may push the Rams here and the current 7- to 7½-point Spread seems awfully steep in a game in which Chicago (+264 Money Line, Pinnacle) can possibly win, although they will be coming of just 5 Days Rest after playing on MNF and travelling from San Diego back to the Midwest. The Rams are dreaming of a possible Wild Card spot but the Bears could give a proverbial Rat’s Ass about what St. Louis wants and could very well win this with Cutler out-dueling Rams QB Nick Foles. Also, Chicago is 11-27 ATS the L38 against the NFC while the Rams are 6-2 ATS their L8 against teams with a winning record.
As far as the Totals Trends and direction the pick will be leaning, St. Louis Unders are 6-2 this year as for the Rams to stay in games with opponents with better Rosters, they must keep scoring from the opposition down as much as possible, and, so far, St. Louis has done a pretty good job. Overs in Week 10 Rams games are a strong 8-1 ATS, but that (Week) and the monthly Trends are so subject to the Randomness of how a team is playing at a given point in time and who they were scheduled in any given season. To me, these Trends are almost worthless and only good for readers to chew on. If you left food out for a squirrel 33 straight days and on every Thursday a Raccoon came and ate the food, it wouldn’t mean that Raccoons predominantly eat the food you leave out, now would it? Anyway, the Under is also 6-2 ATS in Week 10 in Rams games while the Over is 10-4 ATS in the L14 Rams games in the month of November, if you needed more meaningless Randomness. The three big things here—from the Totals standpoint—are the Rams tendencies to play low-scoring, chess match-type games this season, St. Louis’s 6-2 ATS mark to the Under so far and the 7-3 ATS Under Trend in this series over the L10 meetings. Even with Cutler and Chicago feeling good and having some nice new Toys to play with, the rams Defense is no joke and will be a rude awakening after facing the neat-up Chargers just 6 days earlier. Chicago can win this game and the Bears Defense has been playing much better over the last month.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Bears 23 Rams 17 
NFL WEEK 10 FREE TOTALS PICK: Under 43 -115 (bet365)

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