Green Bay has owned this matchup both SU and ATS for a while now, and with the injuries for the Bears, is there any conversation here? I think there is, as the Bears have reached +11 in the NFL Odds. I think I have found some value here, and I think it may surprise you.
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McCown or McCan’t
With the injury to Jay Cutler, Josh McCown will start this game and likely a few more for the Bears as Cutler’s groin heals. The Bears have been steady on offense this season under new head coach Marc Trestman, as they are averaging around 30 points per game. However their issues have been on the defensive end.
With the defense shaky, the play of McCown becomes all the more important. The Bears have been historically horrific going up against Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, but the spread here is undervaluing the potential play of McCown, and I think it may lead to the Bears having value. He was 14/20 with over 200 yards and a touchdown in his relief of Cutler two weeks ago in Washington, and with the Bears’ bye week coming at the perfect time, he has had an extra week to practice with the first team offense.
Trestman’s offense has seemingly made Cutler what he is this season, and with McCown, I doubt it drops the Bears down as much as the sportsbooks are suggesting with this spread. At +11, I think the Bears may be the play.
The Sharp Pick
The Bears are only 2-8 ATS and SU in their last ten games against Green Bay overall, and while Chicago is only 1-5-1 ATS this season, the Packers have been undervalued at 5-2 ATS. Chicago is also 0-5 ATS and SU in their last five games overall against the Packers, (they have lost six in a row SU) and in their last five trips to Green Bay, the Bears are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS.
I see this game being a shootout, and I think both teams are going to be able to score on one another. Christian Ponder and the inept Vikings offense put up 31 points on the Packers’ defense last week, and even though the Bears are going to be starting two rookie linebackers and missing their best defensive tackle, the Packers aren’t without their own defensive injuries.
Clay Matthews and Nick Perry will definitely miss this game, and Brad Jones is questionable for Monday. Right there is three of their four starting linebackers. Matt Forte should be able to run all over Green Bay in this game, and I expect the Bears to rely heavily on the run with McCown under center. Despite the Packers being one of the better-ranked teams against the run, with all of these injuries to their front seven, the Bears could score a lot even without Cutler. The Packers already have issues in coverage, as they are in the lower third of the league in combating the pass. For your NFL pick take the points with Chicago in this one. I doubt the final score is any more than a ten-point loss for the Bears.
NFL Pick: Bears +11 @ Bovada