NFL Picks: Bears (+10.5) are a Good Bet not to get Blow Out at Arrowhead Stadium

Nikki Adams

Thursday, October 8, 2015 12:05 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 8, 2015 12:05 PM UTC

The Bears & Chiefs collide in an NFC clash of 1-3 SU teams week 5 NFL. Which side will come up trumps?  Find out as we breakdown the matchup & serve up NFL picks.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-3 SU, 0-1 home)
The Chiefs are riding a three-game losing streak ahead of week 5 NFL betting, a negative run of form that has affected the team and it’s output across the board. The moment it all turned south was nationally televised on Thursday Night Football – the gut-wrenching Jamaal Charles fumble in week 2’s clash with the Broncos that effectively shipped the win into Denver’s win column.

The Chiefs have been in a tailspin since. Understandably, it was a tough loss to swallow but they haven't put it behind them either. It visibly weighed on their shoulders in their ensuing games and, most conspicuously, in their last lap around the league to Cincinnati.

Granted they’ve had a tough schedule with dates against the Packers and Bengals immediately after hosting Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Not to mention, playing three of their first four games on the road (opening in Houston). Altogether that’s a treacherous start to the season, to put it mildly. Meaning there’s something to be said about the quality of each opponent in their losses, particularly the respective 38-28 and 36-21 losses to the Packers and Bengals on the road.

What a tough schedule doesn’t do is explain the lack of offensive intention and drive. Nor the steadily waning confidence of the Chiefs et al, which was nowhere more evident than last week. It all harks back to the fumble that was….

Of course, the Bengals deserve a lot of credit for stifling Smith and the Chiefs, rendering their O-line completely and utterly ineffective, forcing it to settle on seven field goal attempts instead of touchdowns. For a side purportedly a contender in the AFC not to be able to figure out a way to find the end zone in 60 minutes is unacceptable. It begs the question whether they are really contenders.

In any event, it’s remarkable that NFL odds makers would follow the poor showing in Cincinnati by installing the Chiefs as the whopping 10.5-point favourites at home. Not to mention, doing so with a team riding a three-game losing streak. It’s unusual.


Chicago Bears (1-3 SU, 0-1 away)
The Chicago Bears snapped their losing streak with a narrow 22-20 win over the Raiders at home, with Jay Cutler fresh off of injury and probably not at 100% fitness. Nevertheless, it was a desperately needed morale boost after suffering a 26-0 beat down by Seattle in week 3 behind Jimmy Clausen (in for the injured Jay Cutler).

John Fox and the Bears are 1-3 SU and ATS with just a 1.5-point losing margin through the first four weeks of football. They may only be playing in their second road game of the season, but John Fox is headed to familiar territory. As the former Bronco’s head coach, he’s been to Arrowhead once a year and faced off against the Chiefs twice a year. He knows the team very well, which should be an advantage the Bears capitalise on this weekend.

Obviously, the Bears leave much to be desired after opening the season on a three-game losing streak. To be fair, they opened against the Packers (who they almost never beat), then they faced the Cardinals and the Seahawks. That’s just only three of the best teams in the NFL over the last couple of seasons. So, not unlike the Chiefs to some respect, their 1-3 SU record is down to a tough schedule. Where the Bears have a bit of an advantage over the Chiefs is that they did show a pulse in their games, save for week 3’s loss to the Seahawks.  

NFL Betting Verdict:
Of course, the Chiefs at Arrowhead are a solid team. They should turn things around against a Bears side that is still there for the taking and win this game. But they are 6-3 ATS at home with a 7.3-point winning margin and just 4-3 ATS at home as the home favourites with a 5-point winning margin since 2014. All things being considered, therefore, the hefty point spread appears to overrate the Chiefs at the expense of the Bears. Unreasonably so considering the Chiefs are riding a three-game losing streak, looking utterly confused and befuddled. Don't get us wrong, Chiefs should win this game, but take the Bears to cover the generous 10.5-point spread on your NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Bears +10.5 (-135) at 5Dimes

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