Baltimore Ravens season wins future odds update
The Ravens have lost a ton of talent from their Super Bowl roster, especially on the defensive side. They did replace some of those guys quite well, and they come into the year with a season wins total of 8.5. Baltimore went 10-6 SU last season, but do they have enough this year to once again be an above .500 team? Or do the numbers present us with value betting against Baltimore to have a good season? The over is chalked up pretty large at -140, while the under is set at +120 from LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas.
The league chose to test the Ravens early, as the defending champions will travel to Denver to play the Broncos as their 2013 season opener. Without even mentioning the travesty of being defending champs and not opening up at home, the league seems to be taunting Baltimore with an “Oh yeah? Go do it again, then!” situation for this game. Also, with the 5th worst strength of schedule in the league, things won’t get much easier for Baltimore going forward. They will host the Texans at home during Week 3, they play at Miami in Week 5, then follow that up with a game against the Packers at home, and then on the road again in Week 7 to play the Steelers. All of this comes before their bye, and it doesn’t get much easier after Week 8. Either way, the Ravens could end up 2-5 or 3-4 SU if they are not ready to play early this season.
As I just mentioned, Baltimore opens the season in Denver to play the very team they mercilessly knocked out of the playoffs just one season ago. The NFL odds favor the Broncos anywhere between -7 ½ and -9 ½, whichever sportsbook you are shopping at. The NFL betting public looks to have their money on the Ravens taking so many points against the team they just beat out right on the road in the playoffs.
The total for this game however is much more interesting to me than the spread is. NFL oddsmakers have the total at this game set just below 50 points at 49 ½. With a lot of turnover on the Baltimore defense, combined with the prolific offenses of both sides, this total seems just a bit low this summer.
The Sharp Pick
Between their schedule, their roster turnover, and being the Super Bowl champs, I see zero value in betting over 8 ½ wins for the Ravens this offseason. At -140, you are much better off waiting for a slight favorite in the game odds at -140 or better. However I think the value is on the under this season.
The Ravens could easily go 8-8 this season and miss the playoffs. A Super Bowl hangover is very prevalent in this day and age and, while it’s normally the team that loses, I think it will affect the winning team this time. I believe the Ravens will come out flat to start the season, and even if they rebound in the second half, if they go 3-4 SU in their first seven games, winning six of their next nine will be extremely difficult. As NFL Picks go, the under looks like it has higher value and a reasonable chance of cashing.
My Pick: UNDER 8.5 +120 at Bet365.com
Week 1 Lean: UNDER 49.5