Super Bowl (+1800)
The last back-to-back winner of the Super Bowl was Tom Brady and the Patriots. It’s been almost ten years since that happened, and after the offseason that the Ravens had, I don’t thin kit will happen again. I’m selling on the Ravens’ future odds this season for a few reasons. First I think they are a little overvalued here. They are getting the Super Bowl winner treatment. I would even be willing to bet they don’t make the playoffs. Their division isn’t getting any easier, and the AFC still has a few class teams that have gotten better since the Ravens beat them in the playoffs. All in all, it’s a nice story, but if the Ravens don’t have that spectacular defense going for them, the playoffs might not even be in the cards this season.
Similarly, the AFC Odds for the Ravens are a bit overvalued for this season as well. Of course they cam in as bigger underdogs last season and look what happened. However their foes in the AFC have all been getting a lot better this season, and the Ravens have been trying to patch together and keep what they had. I don’t think the Ravens are valued right or have a chance to beat the Patriots and/or the Broncos again. I would personally have them a touch higher at around 10/1 to win the AFC. There are just going to be too many holes to fill, so lay off unless the odds get better.
The Ravens are going to be all offense and pass rushing this season, with little help in stopping the pass. Even though they might even be good enough to win the AFC North again, I doubt they have the firepower or the defensive prowess to get back to a Super Bowl and win it.
Once the AFC North odds come out, I do expect the Ravens to be favorites or either co-favorite with the Steelers. As of now however, I don’t see any value with the Ravens. Even more, once the game-to-game odds come around in September, the Ravens might be a good fade early on.
Every new season, the Super Bowl winner seemed to be a bit overvalued in the NFL odds. It happened to the Giants last season early on, it happened to the Packers before that, and I expect it to happen to the Ravens this season, The only value we might be uncovering with the Ravens is fading them both in the pre and regular seasons.
All in all, don’t buy the Ravens right now. Depending on the price, I might like them in division odds race, but that is the only bet I would even think about backing the Ravens with my NFL picks for the Super Bowl future odds right now.