NFL Picks: Back Resilient Buccaneers vs. Mistake-Prone Falcons

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, December 1, 2015 10:13 PM GMT

Our NFL handicapping professional provides us with an early preview on Sunday’s game between Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Join us in reading this revealing betting article that concludes with his NFL pick.

NFC South Battle with Playoff Implications
The Falcons (6-5) and Buccaneers (5-6) will square off in a NFC South divisional battle on Sunday. The opening kickoff at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida is slated for 1:00 PM ET. Current (12/1) NFL odds at 5Dimes indicate that Tampa Bay is a 1-point favorite, and the posted total is 46. These teams met in Atlanta earlier this season, and Tampa Bay came away with a 23-20 win as an 8-point underdog. Both of these teams are very much alive in the NFC Wild Card race, neither can afford a loss, and that especially applies to Tampa Bay.

 

Falling off a Steep Cliff
The Atlanta Falcons began the season 5-0, and averaged a robust 32.4 points per game. Since that time, they’ve gone 1-5, averaged a mere 16.3 points per game, and have lost four in a row heading into Sunday. The Falcons are 9-2 under the total this season, and that includes 7-0 in their previous seven games. During those seven contests, Atlanta is a horrible -9 in turnover differential.

 

Resilient Bucs
Tampa Bay is coming off a 25-12 loss at Indianapolis last Sunday. On a positive side, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 4-1 this season following a loss, and that includes 3-0 in their last three when coming off a defeat in their previous game. Unlike their opponent (Falcons) on Sunday, ball security hasn’t been an issue for Tampa Bay in their previous seven games. During that stretch, they’re a stellar +6 in the turnover department.

 

Final Analysis and Pick
Atlanta has failed to cover in each of their last seven games, and has gone an awful 0-4 SU&ATS during its previous four. The Tampa Bay defense has played very well during its last four contests. During that time frame, they held opponents to an average of just 20.0 points, and 315.5 yards per game. I have zero confidence in the Falcons waking up at this point, and they’re making way too many mistakes recently that aren’t conducive to winning games. I’m going to side with the home team in this matchup for one of my NFL picks this week.

NFL Picks: Play on Tampa Bay -1 at 5Dimes

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