NFL Picks: Back Packers To Upset Redskins On Wild Card Weekend

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, January 8, 2016 7:45 PM GMT

Let’s take a look inside the numbers to see how that may translate to point spread success for our NFL picks in the Packers vs. Redskins game on Sunday.

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NFL Picks: Packers +1

Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Green Bay Packers (+1) vs. Washington Redskins 4:40 ET FOX
As noted in the previous game analysis of this week, should Washington remain a home underdog in this contest, we must remember that all Wild Card home dogs are 13-9 SU, 15-6 ATS.  This is a game where it certainly seems that the home team has the more positive momentum.  As a result of the Packers’ (20-13) loss to the Vikings last week, they have been relegated to the road for this Wild Card Playoff game.  Here they will face a Washington team, who enters with far more positive momentum. 

 

Washington Redskins
After a 4-12 SU season of last, the Washington Redskins rebounded with a 9-7 SU ATS mark in 2016.  They concluded the season with a (34-23) outright underdog win against the Dallas Cowboys in which they benefitted from a (+4) net TO margin and outrushed the Cowboys 146-100.  Still, it must be noted that they allowed Dallas’ QB Moore (in just his 2nd start) to lead the Cowboys to 412 yards through the air.  In that regard, it is a negative for Wild Card teams, who come off an outright underdog division win in the previous week.  That win, however, gives them positive momentum of 4 consecutive victories, as they line up for their first playoff game since 2012.  QB Cousins came to life for HC Gruden in running the ball control West Coast offense in the latter stages of the season.  Cousins completed 72% of his passes with a 23/3 ratio.  Now, the Redskins have made the playoffs for just the 3rd time in 10 years.  

Consider the Peter Principle to be at work, as they may be well satisfied in just ascending to this playoff level after last year’s gloomy 4-12 SU season.  Playoff teams who exceed their win total from the previous season by as great a margin, as did the Redskins, have a less than 10% opportunity for ATS success this season.   Lest you get too excited about the Redskins’ recent 4-game winning streak, note that it came against the Bears, the Bills, the Eagles and the Cowboys, none of whom dot this year’s playoff landscape.  In fact, Washington played just 3 fellow playoff teams this season.   Though the games were all on the road, it resulted in a 0-3 SU ATS mark, including losses of (34-20) to the Jets, (27-10) to New England and (44-16) to Carolina.  It may be a big step to ask them to succeed against a Green Bay team, who is making its 7th consecutive playoff appearance.

 

Green Bay Packers
But, this certainly is not looking like a vintage Green Bay Packers playoff team.  They limped home with a 4-6 SU ATS mark, including losses in their final 2 games of the season by scores of (38-6) at Arizona and (20-13) at home to Minnesota last week with the division title on the line!  In that game, they were outrushed by the Vikings 151-76.  Main issue is a battered and bruised offensive line that has allowed playoff savvy QB Rodgers to be sacked 14 times in the last 2 weeks.  Those results certainly do not give Packer backers much hope.  

Nonetheless, I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor and join me in my NFL pick on Green Bay in Sunday's Wild Card Playoff game.