Week 10 Consensus: Jets Again? Yes, Thanks to Bills, Line Moves and QB Switch

Jason Lake

Thursday, November 8, 2018 7:12 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 8, 2018 7:12 PM UTC

Sunday’s game between the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills won’t be pretty. At least the NFL odds have moved enough to make the Jets worth a speculative bet.

Jason’s 2018-19 NFL picks record through Week 8: 4-8 ATS, 2-3 Totals

Buffalo (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS) vs. N.Y. Jets (3-6 SU and ATS)Sunday, 1 p.m. ET; East Rutherford (CBS)Free NFL Pick: JetsBest Line Offered: Heritage

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We didn’t mean for this space to become a near-weekly look at the New York Jets. That’s just what the NFL odds have given us this past month or so. And we’ve cashed in handsomely at 3-1 ATS with those picks; last week, we took the Miami Dolphins as small home faves over the Jets, and they won 13-6 on absolutely brutal field conditions at Miami Gardens. Splendid.

This week, we’re back on the Jets’ side, and it’s largely because the Buffalo Bills are coming to town. That’s the Buffalo Bills featuring Nathan Peterman at quarterback – maybe. Josh Allen might have recovered enough from his elbow injury to get the nod on Sunday, which wouldn’t be ideal for our Week 9 NFL picks. Derek Anderson (concussion) could even get the start instead. But the chances of Peterman playing are high enough for us to make a speculative play on New York.

Big Josh

The important thing is, we’re getting a significant break from the NFL lines, which have already moved towards the Bills. The expanded consensus reports at press time show 41.69 percent of bettors on Buffalo, but 51.35 percent of the money on New York. Despite that slight lean on the amount wagered, the Jets have moved from –9.5 (+110) at the open to –6.5 (–105) at press time. That’s a fantastic move for us across the magic number 7.

New York are also making a quarterback switch of their own. Sam Darnold is officially out with a sprained foot; veteran Josh McCown is in, and that should be a considerable upgrade at this point. Darnold has shown flashes of brilliance, but has struggled enough to fall near the bottom of the efficiency charts at Football Outsiders. Last year, McCown made 13 starts for the Jets and performed just a bit below league average, right around the same level as Eli Manning and Andy Dalton.

Lowest of the Low

That doesn’t sound like much, but it’s a big step up from where Darnold is right now. And a giant leap ahead of Peterman, a strong candidate for worst starting QB of all-time. Even if Allen gets the nod instead, he’s currently last on this year’s passing DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) charts for quarterbacks with at least 135 pass attempts. Peterman’s on 81 attempts thus far.

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Nathan Peterman is the only player in the Super Bowl era to have 11 interceptions on 100 (or fewer) pass attempts. pic.twitter.com/Dn13AwDwWM

— The Rush (@therushyahoo) November 4, 2018
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We’re still only recommending a small wager on New York under these circumstances. FiveThirtyEight project New York as a 3.5-point favorite for Sunday’s game, but that projection is rendered moot by the quarterback situation for both clubs. And the Bills are 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in Allen’s five starts thus far. That’s some Tim Tebow-level miracle work right there. We’re jumping in anyway at –6.5, so bundle up, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

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