NFL Picks: Back Broncos (+1.5) & Osweiler in High-Scorer vs. Bears

Nikki Adams

Friday, November 20, 2015 6:55 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 20, 2015 6:55 PM UTC

Do the Broncos stand a chance with Brock Osweiler at quarterback? Find out as we preview the upcoming clash between the Broncos and Bears, complete with NFL picks.

Broncos (7-2, 4-1 away)
Brock Osweiler is set to lead the Broncos in week 11 as they descend on former head coach John Fox and the Bears in the windy city. That development has to be the most significant for NFL bettors looking to bet on this game.

No Peyton. No problem. That’s what the Broncos organisation would have us believe. The future Hall of Fame quarterback is dealing with several injuries, which contributed to one of the worst performances of his storied career and forced Gary Kubiak to bench him for this upcoming clash. Enter backup Brock Osweiler a long-standing understudy in Denver, who the organisation have had under wraps for several years and high hopes for when the time comes for Manning to hang his hat.

So far, we’ve been mainly treated to the backup’s talents in preseason action where he’s shown plenty of positives. But any initiated NFL bettor knows that preseason and regular season are mutually exclusive, two separate entities that often yield contradicting results.

The Denver Broncos are riding a two-game losing streak since a week 8 when they dismantled the Packers. In week 9 NFL betting, they slipped to defeat in Indianapolis, a narrow 27-24 loss to the Colts. In week 10, they succumbed to the Kansas City Chiefs at home 39-13.

There’s a lot of pressure riding on the backup quarterback to get the Broncos back on track. They take a 7-2 SU record into week 11 NFL betting, which includes a 4-1 SU record on the road. Against the spread, the Broncos are 5-4 ATS with a 4.1-point winning margin.

Sports betting shops opened doors with the Broncos installed as the 3-point road favorites, however action during the week has seen them completely jump fence on this game with the Broncos now trading at +1 or +1.5-point road underdogs on the NFL odds board. That’s quite the shift in NFL betting outlook.


Bears (4-5 SU, 1-3 SU)
The Bears are riding a two-game winning streak since coming off a bye. They upset the San Diego Chargers in Monday Night Football betting and the St. Louis Rams the week after, both times on the road all while coming through as the significant underdogs.

This sudden surge has the Chicago Bears improving to 4-5 SU on the season and closing the gap on the Green Bay Packers (riding a three-game losing streak). Where the Bears are still struggling is on home turf; they are only 1-3 SU at home this season, which extends their poor run of home form since 2014 to 3-9 SU with a 7.5-point losing margin. As home favorites over the same stretch they are 2-2 SU. All those stats make the Bears as the home chalk a bit of a dicey NFL pick.

Where the Bears do have a slight edge is in John Fox and his knowledge of the Broncos, including backup Brock Osweiler. Of course, under Gary Kubiak the Broncos aren’t playing the same way they did when he was at the helm, but knowing some of the nuances and tendencies of a quarterback is still going to be useful.


NFL Betting Verdict
The Broncos and Bears appear to be headed in different directions, if the focus is the current run of form. However, there Broncos are infinitesimally the better team on both sides of the ball. They may be without Peyton Manning but that’s neither here nor there when anybody that’s paid close attention to the Broncos this season knows their defense has been key to their success.

Jay Cutler may have elevated his play over recent weeks but the Chargers or Rams’ defense doesn’t compare to the Broncos’ defense. It’s hard to look at those accounts and feel confident he can do the same against this top ranked group. In all likelihood, they’ll give the starter some headaches, if not force him to make mistakes – which he was always prone to in previous seasons. It’s going to be a tough ask for the Bears to come through we think as a result. Hence, we’re taking the Broncos plus the points on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Broncos +1.5 (-110) and OVER 41 (-110) at BetOnline

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