It’s the battle of New York tonight as the Bills and Jets hook up for some Thursday night football, and I have found two plays from this game good enough to parlay together for some extra profit.
The NFL odds for this Week 10 TNF contest have the Jets as -2 ½ home favorites, which is actually down from -3 where the line opened. This game will likely be a good one, but with the line dropping a half point, even with the Bills looking healthy for this game, the Jets might be the better look. At home, and with the better defense, the Jets could limit the Bills offensively. Even with Tyrod Taylor playing well, the Jets’ run defense is good enough to force Taylor to beat them from the air, which could play right into the hands of the Jets.
Although it looks like Antonio Cromartie will miss this game, the Jets’ secondary should still be able to limit Buffalo. Darrelle Revis will likely be shadowing Sammy Watkins for most of the game, and after Watkins’ breakout game last week, you know the Jets will want to limit his big play ability.
On the running side of things, despite the Bills’ deep stable of running backs and the mobility of Taylor, as long as the Jets’ ends stay in their lanes and don’t allow any of the Bills runners to bounce outside, New York should be able to limit Buffalo on first and second down. As long as the Jets can limit the Bills to long third downs, the Jets are the play in this one.
Along with a nice spread, the total for this game is sitting at 42 ½ points, which is actually somewhat low for these two teams. Maybe when both of these teams were bad offensively this total would be warranted, but here on a short week, and with both teams utilizing balanced offensive play, the over is by far the best play for tonight’s game. I understand if the spread is too close to call, but if you want a play for this game, take the over and you’ll likely sleep much better tonight.
For starters, both of these teams’ offenses have been undervalued this season, which has led to both teams being solid over plays for the first half of the year. The Jets have cashed the over in four of their last five games, while the Bills are 5-2 cashing the over in their last seven games overall. While the short week is concerning some, at this point in the season I believe it hurts the defenses more than the offenses. Tired defenses could mean a lot more points than a normal Thursday night game, and if that’s the case, the sportsbooks have undervalued this total by at least two or three points.
In all but one game where Taylor has started and finished the game for the Bills, Buffalo is averaging 30-plus points per game. On the flip side, with the Bills’ weak secondary, Ryan Fitzpatrick and company should have little trouble moving the ball.
Despite some of the bad offense from these teams in previous years, the over has cashed in five of the last seven times they’ve played one another, and the over is a perfect 5-0 in the last five years they have played one another from Buffalo. Take the over and parlay it with the Jets laying the points tonight for your Thursday NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 2-team parlay: Jets -2 ½ & OVER 42 ½ at Bookmaker