NFL Picks: ATS Predictions for Each and Every Week 5 Matchup

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, October 7, 2015 6:27 PM GMT

Join us as we weigh in on week 5 NFL betting lines and serve up our choice NFL picks for each and every game against the spread and add to our winning record.

NFL Week 4 Betting Recap
It was a down week for our NFL picks in week 4 against the spread. How do we recover from it, you may be wondering? Well, on the bright side our overall record through four weeks is in the green (See Table 1) across the board so there’s that to help us on our road to recovery. Then there’s our eternal optimism for the next week. You’re only as good as the next week’s results, so they say.  

 

Colts vs. Texans
The NFL betting lines are finally on the NFL odds board for this game and they say more about the Colts than they do about the Texans, despite both teams enjoying their fair share of struggles. The Colts have eked out a 2-2 SU record over four games with luck going their way mainly in the last two rounds. Overall, they’ve been outscored 72-to-93 for a 10.5-point margin of defeat on average. They are averaging 18 points scored per game and conceding 23.25-points per game. After opening on EVEN odds, the line has moved up to 1-to-1.5-points with the Colts to the good at most sportsbooks. 

The only inference we can make from this development is that odds makers and NFL bettors alike must feel the Colts are a game away from exploding on offense. Andrew Luck not being 100% or that he has the lowest QB rating of any quarterback this season seems to have been conveniently swept aside. Under the current reality, it’s hard to accept such an outlook. On the flipside, the Texans had their butts whooped by the Atlanta Falcons last week. It was an unmemorable performance by Ryan Mallet and Company. There is the notion that an embarrassment such as theirs is a catalyst for redemption. It’s hard to move past that gruesome display against the Falcons, which was a total team effort in failure. Sometimes though sports betting is unpredictable. If the Texans have any fight in them, the short week can prove advantageous for a turnaround against the Colts. 

NFL Picks: Texans +1 (-105) at 5Dimes

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Bills vs. Titans
Tyrod Taylor and the Bills didn’t look good against the NY Giants last week in a 24-10 loss all while installed as the home faves SU and ATS. LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins were both absent, which played a factor in Taylor’s rather mediocre performance. Still, the Bills are 2-2 SU (1-0 SU away) with a 4.5-point winning margin overall. They’ll certainly look upon this as a winnable game. They are the road faves across sports betting platforms – somewhat understandable with statement wins over the Colts and Dolphins and a respectable loss to the Patriots, but the Bills failed in a big way to come through as the home chalk in week 4 against the NY Giants. Think you they can do so as the road chalk in week 5? Forget for a moment any preconceived notions about the Titans. Fact is, winning as a favourite comes with a certain kind of pressure Tyrod Taylor has yet to show he can rise to. Of course, with the Titans riding a two-game losing streak and coming off a disheartening 35-33 loss to the Colts (Titans are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS, which includes a 4-point winning margin), there are those NFL bettors that might fancy the Bills’ chances. However, the Titans have had a week off to mull things over and they’ll be wanting redemption in Nashville for the missed opportunity against the Colts. One thing they do have going for them is Marcus Mariota’s rather exceptional play as a rookie and if he can keep playing within himself the Titans could keep this game close, if not win it entirely and defy the NFL odds.

NFL Picks: Titans +3 (-115) at Bovada

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Bears vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs return to Arrowhead in week 5 NFL betting, where a late fumble by Jamaal Charles saw them lose to the Broncos 31-24 and, in turn, turned their season on its head. Since that costly mistake, they’ve lost another two games to the Packers and Bengals. There’s an argument to be had about the toughness of their schedule, which put them up against three teams that have combined for a 12-0 SU record in the first four weeks of the season. It’s a tough ask for any team, including a solid outfit such as the Chiefs are. So you can imagine the relief facing the Bears brings in week 5. The Bears are 1-3 SU having snapped the negative trend with a win over the Raiders, dubious though it was as they only barely accomplished the feat. Undoubtedly, most NFL bettors are backing the Chiefs to return to the win column, but the 9-pointto 10.5-point spread that is currently trading does seems overly optimistic. Bears are 1-3 ATS with a 14.2-point margin of defeat on average, but that number is heavily skewed by the 26-0 loss with Jimmy Clausen calling the shots. Take that score out of the equation and the Bears are 1-2 ATS with an 8.33-point losing margin under Jay Cutler.

NFL Picks: Bears +10.5 (-135) at 5Dimes

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Browns vs. Ravens
The Ravens go into week 5 NFL betting as the touchdown faves across the NFL odds board, despite a 1-3 SU record and a 0-3-1 ATS mark, which includes a 2.8-point margin of defeat. The Ravens are coming off a win in week 4, which has gone someway to reinstating them in the good books. That it was a close call and rather suspect win over the Steelers in Thursday Night Football betting is neither here nor there it seems, which is slightly concerning. The other thing helping them along in NFL betting circles and pushing their NFL odds high is the quality of the opponent in week 5, a divisional rival that that they own 13-1 SU in the last 14 meetings, which includes series sweeps in the last two seasons. It’s worth noting the Browns have split those meetings 2-2 ATS and they are coming off a 30-27 loss to the Chargers, in which they covered as the 7-point road dogs.

NFL Picks: Browns +7 (-125) at 5Dimes

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Jaguars vs. Buccaneers
The Jaguars missed a chance to put away the Colts and heap more misery on Chuck Pagano and his lads when they boggled a field goal. They are now five straight games without a win on the road. Meanwhile, Jameis Winston and the Bucs were served notice by the Panthers in week 4 NFL betting, losing 37-23 at home. It’s now a stretch of 11 straight losses at home for the Bucs, looking to be trailing off rather than gearing up for a resounding home performance. Whichever way you slice this game, it’s a tossup really for your NFL picks. We’re giving the nod to the visitors but only just as the 3-point road underdogs.

NFL Picks: Jaguars +3.0 (-110)

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Saints vs. Eagles
Neither one of these teams can be seriously trusted on the NFL betting floor as they repeatedly flatter to deceive from week to week. Eagles should have extended their winning form last week to two in a row, but they failed to stop the Redskins finding the end zone in a last gasp touchdown. It marked the second game of the season in which they practically left the W on the field for the opposing team to merrily run off with it (they missed a field goal in week 1 over the Falcons). The Eagles might have been 3-1 SU going into week 5. Imagine how different the narrative would be and how confident we would be with our NFL pick here. As it is, it’s a bit of a tossup with the Saints riding the momentum of their win over Dallas in Sunday’s Primetime showdown. Then again, they really needed to go the distance to put away a Tony-Romo-less Cowboys. The Eagles should win this game, but they haven’t exactly been blowing opponents off the field so it could be closer than the NFL odds would suggest. Nevertheless, we’re taking a chance on the Eagles getting it right this week and backing them on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Eagles -4.5 (-110) at Bet365

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Seahawks vs. Bengals
The Seahawks are quite the underdogs in this clash, it beggars belief. Pre-season Super Bowl 50 faves the underdogs in any matchup this season? Beggars belief. Then again, that’s what a poor start to the season can do to the value of any team at sports betting exchanges. NFL odds are never static and subject to change. So they did when the Seahawks crashed to a 34-31 loss in St. Louis and a 27-17 loss at Green Bay in the first two weeks of the season. They have since bounced back to win their ensuing games to level their record to 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. Although with those wins coming at the expense of the Bears and Lions (two stragglers this season) it remains to be seen what form the Seahawks are truly in right now.

On the flipside, the Bengals leave nothing to the imagination with a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS start on the season that includes an 11-point winning margin. The Seahawks will be desperate to get above .500 while the Bengals will be looking to make a statement and quiet naysayers that have long criticised them for being all smoke and mirrors. The Bengals need this win in some ways more than the Seahawks do, if only to underscore their legitimacy as contenders in the league. Out of principle, most NFL bettors are going to back the Seahawks on their NFL picks. We’re of a mind to go with the home faves, fall in line with the odds makers.

NFL Picks: Bengals -2.5 (-120) at Heritage

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Rams vs. Packers
The St. Louis Rams seem to rise to the occasion when faced with a tough opponent while against lesser opponents they fail to launch. Already the Nick Foles and the Rams have taken down the Seattle Seahawks (at home) and the Arizona Cardinals (road). Could they potentially rise to the challenge the Green Bay Packers pose at Lambeau Field? It’s a sexy thought, one that seems to be gaining traction in NFL betting circles with early betting shops posting a significant shift towards the Rams – 57 % are backing the Rams to cover the hefty spread on the road and 54% are actually betting on the Rams for the flat out upset in win markets. Aside from their two big wins this season, there is no other evidence to support the notion of an outright upset across the board. The Packers are one of the toughest teams to beat at home with a league-leading 11-0 SU mark since 2014, comprised of a 16.4-point margin of victory. They are also a league leading 8-2-1 ATS at home over the same span. The point spread is trading anywhere from 9-to-10.5-points depending on your sportsbook of choice. Rule of thumb is to back the Packers at home given their track record of success there. Why reinvent the wheel….?

NFL Picks: Packers -9 (-110) at Bovada

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Redskins vs. Falcons
It’s tough to say whether the Falcons are the real deal or they are only as good as the strength of their NFL schedule, which is the easiest of the entire field, ranked 32nd on the strength scale with a 0.409 winning percentage.Nevertheless, they are undefeated on the season. Gladly capitalising on the weaker opponents they’ve been dealt with over the course of the season, another one of which (based on last season’s performance) is slated for week 5 NFL betting. The Redskins are 2-2 SU on the season, but their performance has been inconsistent and – dare we say, it – a bit lucky. They upset the Rams in week 2 and stunned the Eagles in week 4 with a late scoring drive that snatched the improbable win. Backing those with a third win in the win column against the high-flying Falcons will be quite the feat. The Redskins opened as the 9-point road underdogs on the NFL odds board, but have since come down to 7-points at most sportsbooks. Falcons are 4-0 SU and ATS with an 11-point winning margin and 2-0 SU and ATS at home with a 14.5-point winning margin. We’re comfortable laying the points with the Falcons at home on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Falcons -7 (-120) at Bet365

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Cardinals vs. Lions
So the Arizona Cardinals lost to the Rams in week 4 NFL betting. The matchup probably put Carson Palmer on edge, knowing he went down with an ACL injury last season in that very same matchup he wasn’t as sharp as his previous three accounts to start the season. Putting aside the loss to the Rams, the Cardinals are still one of the season’s contenders to spot and a measly 2.5-point spread on the road at the expense of the down-on-their-luck Lions seems a steal. Lions are 1-3 ATS with a 7.5-point losing margin, in danger of slipping to a 0-5 SU start on the season.

NFL Picks: Cardinals -2.5 (-111) 

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Broncos vs. Raiders
The spread on this game is hopping up and down from sportsbook to sportsbook. After opening on 6-points, the spread has moved down to 5-points at 5Dimes and as low as 4.5-points at other sportsbooks. This is the first time in three seasons approximately that this line is in the single-digit range. Previous NFL betting lines featured double-digits, including 15.5-points and 12-points in last season’s series sweep, both of which the Broncos covered handily in a 47-14 and 41-17 win, respectively. Jump on the 4.5-points while you can before it goes up.

NFL Picks: Broncos -4.5 (-110) at YouWager

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Patriots vs. Cowboys
Undoubtedly, the Patriots are the choice NFL pick to win this game. However, they are also a solid NFL pick to cover as the massive road chalk. You’ll find the Patriots trading anywhere from 8.5-to-10 points. They’re 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS with a 16.3-point margin of victory. Brandon Weeden and the Dallas Cowboys might be treated to a clinic if Tom Brady is as sharp as he was in the first three games. Take the Patriots as the 8.5-point road chalk.

NFL Picks: Patriots -8.5 (-105) 

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Niners vs. Giants
The Niners are in dire straits behind a horrendous three-game losing streak that sees the franchise hit a new nadir. The Giants looked to be in dire straits in the first couple of weeks but have since turned things around with a back-to-back winning streak. Things don’t appear to be as they seem with either franchise though, having us considering taking the points with the Niners.

NFL Picks: Niners +7 (-115) 

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Steelers vs. Chargers
Although the Steelers lost in week 4 to the Ravens, they showed they could play without Big Ben. Well, had they not botched a field goal attempt and made some poor decisions late in the game they might have pulled off the win with Mike Vick calling the shots. The Chargers snapped a two-game losing streak with a win over the Browns, but it was touch-and-go for most of the game, prompting us to consider the field-goal line a bit generous where they are concerned. It’s a bit of a longshot, but we’re fading the Chargers and taking the Steelers as the 3-point road pups in MNF.

NFL Picks: Steelers +3 (+100) at Pinnacle

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