The Bills come in favored by the NFL odds at either 3 or 3.5 points, while the O/U is at 46 points for this game.
Buffalo is 4-7 SU and 6-5 ATS and Atlanta is 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS.
We all know how much of a struggle it's been for the Falcons this season. Injuries have been an issue, that's certainly true, but that's not an excuse for this talented of a team to have won only two games this season.
Since a 31-23 win over Tampa Bay in October, Atlanta has lost five games in a row, including road setbacks against Arizona (27-13), Carolina (34-10) and Tampa Bay (41-28) and home losses to Seattle (33-10) and New Orleans (17-13).
It was a valiant effort from Matt Ryan and company on Thursday night, but ultimately it was just another letdown.
Matt Ryan was very efficient, hitting 30-of-39 passes for 292 yards, but he couldn't record a touchdown pass. Steven Jackson, who had 16 carries for 63 yards (and three catches for 16 yards), was responsible for the only score.
Clearly it's been a (very) forgettable season for the Falcons, but these guys are still playing for pride and they're not just going to pack it in. The loss of Julio Jones and injuries to Jackson and Roddy White have been tough to take, but this team's healthier now than they have been in a long time and they've been craving that winning feeling.
There's no better way to rid the memory of three straight losses than to destroy a division rival.
The Bills did just that two weeks ago, humiliating the New York Jets in a 37-14 win at home. Believe it or not, the closing NFL betting lines had Buffalo as a home underdog, so needless to say they easily cashed if you had them in your NFL picks.
EJ Manuel did his thing, logging 245 passing yards and two touchdowns, which more than made up for the running struggles of Fred Jackson (12 carries for 34 yards) and CJ Spiller (13 attempts for six yards).
But, it was Buffalo's defense that really impressed. Geno Smith was on his heels all game – the Bills had three interceptions, recovered a fumble and sacked the rookie four times. On the season Buffalo now ranks #15 in total defense, while ranking #19 in total offense.
But can the Bills get a second straight win this weekend? They'll be up against an incredibly determined Atlanta team, so they can't afford to let up whatsoever.
Yeah, we get it. The Falcons have been beyond bad this season.
But, are we crazy for thinking they may actually win this weekend's game? Atlanta did show signs of life against New Orleans last Thursday and it's not like they don't have the talent in place to get things done. It's mostly just been about execution.
This isn't a true home game for Buffalo and the Falcons are incredibly desperate at this point. We feel this is the weekend where they'll put (most) of the pieces together and get back on the winning side of things.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons +3.5