NFL Picks: Atlanta Falcons Team Profile 2015

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, August 24, 2015 8:18 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 24, 2015 8:18 PM UTC

The Falcons just missed winning the NFC South last season despite finishing with a 6-10 record, but will the easiest schedule in the NFL put them over the top in 2015?  


The 2015 NFL regular season is drawing closer as Kickoff Weekend begins Thursday night, September 10th, but before we get to opening night, we will be here presenting daily team profiles in an attempt to assist you with your NFL picks. Today we are profiling the Atlanta Falcons, who finished 6-10 in 2014 and in third place in the NFC South.


For starters, here is a summary of the Atlanta betting statistics over the past five seasons. Take note that all of these statistics are for regular season games only.


Atlanta Falcons Betting Stats, 2010 through 2014

   Home  Away  Overall
ATS Overall  21-17-2    20-19-1    41-36-3  
ATS Favorite  15-14-2  11-8-1  26-22-3
ATS Underdog  6-3  9-10   15-13
Avg. Margin  +4.6  -0.3   +2.2
Over – Under  17-22-1  19-19-2  36-41-3
Avg. Total Score    47.0  47.1  47.1


Betting on the Falcons over the last five years would have left you almost exactly even at -110 odds as they have gone 53.2 percent ATS over all their games. They have been a bit profitable at home though hitting at a 55.2 percent ATS clip including going 66.7 percent ATS as a home underdog, albeit over only nine samplings. It is also interesting that the ‘under’ has gone 56.4 percent in Atlanta home games.
Key Trend: The ‘over’ is 13-4-1, 76.5 percent in Atlanta games in dome stadiums following a home game.

Up next, we look at the Falcons’ statistical summary for the 2014 season.


2014 Atlanta Falcons Team Statistics (Per Game)

   Offense    Off. Rank   Defense    Def. Rank 
Points  23.8  12th  26.1  27th
Rushing  93.6  24th  118.8  21st
Yds. Per Rush    4.0  21st  4.2  18th
Passing  284.6  5th  279.4  32nd
Yds Per Pass  7.2  9th  7.9  32nd
Total Yards  378.2  7th  398.2  32nd
Yds. Per Play  6.0  8th  6.3  32nd


The Falcons entered their season finale vs. the Carolina Panthers with a 6-9 record last year thanks to ranking dead last in the NFL in total defense and in passing defense, and yet, such was the state of the sad NFC South that they would have won the division if they could only win that de facto playoff game at home! Instead they were embarrassed 34-3 in front of their home fans and Carolina won the division with a losing 7-8-1 record.

Now, let us move on to various Atanta Future Odds for this 2015 season from several sportsbooks. You can view these and other future and prop odds on the Sportsbook Review Futures and Prop Bets Directory.


2015 Atlanta Falcons NFL Futures

   5 Dimes  Bookmaker    Bovada  Heritage
Super Bowl Odds    +4500  +3757  +4000  +4400
NFC Conf. Odds  +2000  +1706  +2200  +1950
NFC South Odds  +220  +180  +200  +210
Win Total  8½ un-115    8½ un-128  8½ un-125    8½ un-115  


So with the Atlanta win-total set at 8½ this season, albeit with a juiced ‘under’, and the Falcons being one of the two favorites to win the NFC South across the board, the Falcons must be improved, right? Well, not necessarily. However, they do get a boost from facing the easiest schedule in the NFL, a schedule against which the Falcons’ great offense can score enough points to overcome a shaky defense more often than it did last season.


Atlanta Falcons Key Additions
Key additions to the offense have been wide receiver Leonard Hankerson and tight ends Tony Moeak and Jacob Tamme, with Hankerson having a sensational camp that could be putting the Falcons at ease knowing they have a competent replacement for the games the aging Roddy White will inevitably miss. Atlanta addressed its defensive concerns mainly through the draft, selecting rush linebacker Vic Beasley and cornerback Jalen Collins with the first two picks.

Atlanta Falcons Key Losses
The Falcons lost a lot of familiar faces on both sides of the ball, as the departures on offense included running backs Steven Jackson and Jacquizz Rodgers, as well as wide receiver Harry Douglas. Meanwhile, the defense said goodbye to tackle Corey Peters, linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, cornerbacks Robert McClain and Josh Wilson and safety Dwight Lowery.

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