The NFL odds have the Falcons rated very highly this offseason, and their season win total from LVH Sportsbook is no different. LVH has the Falcons at 10 wins this season, so with the ‘Over’ priced at +110, is there value with betting the Falcons to have another good season, or will they fall too far from their 13-3 SU season a year ago?
Looking for more info on NFC South team season wins? Read our report!
The Falcons are 15th in strength of schedule this season, but as we have discussed with other teams this offseason, that statistic can be misleading. The NFC South will be much better than it was a season ago, but to counter that, the Falcons got lucky with their non-divisional games this season. The South plays the NFC West and the AFC East this season, two of the weaker overall divisions in the league. There should be easy wins against teams like the Rams, Cardinals, Bills and Jets this season, and if they can upset the likes of the Patriots, Seahawks or 49ers, this team could once again be above ten wins.
If Atlanta takes care of business at home this year, I really like their chances at cashing the over in this bet. The value of +110 is there as well, which would make cashing this bet all the sweeter.
How do the Falcons compare with the rest of the NFC South this season?
The Falcons get an early test this season, as they open up against the Saints in New Orleans. The NFL odds for this game favor the Saints at -2.5 and -3 at some sportsbooks, with a total of 54 points. The Falcons won and covered their last game against the Saints, which was last November in Atlanta. Before that however, the Saints had covered four in a row against Atlanta. The Saints have also covered in three of their last five games at home against the Falcons.
However as much as the spread of this stellar Week 1 matchup intrigues me, I am picking on the total in this game. Both of these defenses are solid, but their offenses are also two of the most potent in the NFL. The over has cashed in two of their last three and six of their last ten overall games against one another, and because it is Week 1, I think offense and fresh legs will rule over defense. Plus, the Saints are implementing a new defensive scheme, and testing it against one of the best offenses in the NFL could lead to more points in this game.
The Sharp Pick
The Falcons have high expectations this season, but returning to the NFC Title game won’t be easy in this rough conference. However I think because there is no half win attached to their season win total, the ‘Over’ is where the value lies. Atlanta is dominant at home, and if they can continue their solid road performances from a season ago, they will once again win this division. Between the Saints and them, the Falcons are better on both sides of the ball, and thus a better NFL pick overall. I see at least 11 wins.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 10 +110
Week 1 Lean: ‘Over’ 54 at William Hill