Atlanta Falcons divisional future odds update
The defending NFC South champions return this season as favorites once again, as the Atlanta Falcons are listed at +100 to win the division this season.
The Falcons got even better this season as they brought in Steven Jackson, and now the Falcons’ offense should be even more potent in 2013. I'm kind of stuck on the fence with the Falcons this season in their divisional future odds. On one hand, even money seems like pretty good value for a team that won their division by about Week 10 last season, and on the other hand is +100 enough value in a sport and bet that has so many variables?
Even though I am tempted, I have to lay off of the Falcons and await better prices. In the NFL you never know, and with the Falcons it only takes one or two injuries for them to be downgraded in the NFL odds for 2013. I'm sure we will be able to find even money value on another bet during the season, and I'm sure it will have a lot less variables than a divisional future odds bet.
Even though I don't think they have much value in a divisional future odds bet, you can read about how I think they have a lot more value as a Super Bowl or NFC favorite this season. On top of them having pretty good value in those future odds, the Falcons might even have some more value ATS this season like they did in 2012.
The Falcons were 9-6–1 ATS last season, and while they were incredibly overvalued at home during the regular season, they were very undervalued on the road in 2012. This came from the common misconception that the Falcons were always a fade on the road, which they were in prior seasons. However the Falcons went 5-2-1 ATS on the road last season, and they were 2-0 ATS the two times they were road underdogs.
Where the Falcons did not have value last year was against their own division surprisingly enough (all three of their losses came to their division). Atlanta was 3-3 SU against the NFC South in 2012, and they were only 1-4-1 ATS in those six games.
Much like the Packers in the NFC North, the Falcons are not getting as much preseason attention as they normally do. The Falcons are surely an NFC contender this season, but the hype is all out on the West Coast, and I think it's going to have a very good effect on Atlanta’s value this season.
I see yet another winning season both straight up and against the spread for the Falcons this year for our NFL picks, but stay away from +100, and set your sights a little higher on their NFC and Super Bowl odds this season. They have the ability to beat both the 49ers and the Seahawks in a potential playoff scenario, and their odds to win the NFC hold much more value in my eyes.