Sometimes the AP Award on offense is used as a consolation prize for the MVP, however in three of the last four seasons, the same player to win the MVP won the AP Award as well. So will that trend continue, or will we see the award go to someone else other than the most valuable player?
Drew Brees has won the award twice and will try and become only the second player in NFL history to be voted into the award three times. Even though this is almost always a quarterback award, the only player to win the award three times is Marshall Faulk, who did it three times in a row from 1999 to 2001. Brees obviously has the defending MVP and AP Offensive Player of the Year to battle with for this award, however he is well suited to take on one of the greatest.
A quarterback has won this award in five of the last seven seasons, and just like Brees, Peyton Manning has now won this award twice. There was a lot more time in between awards for Manning. Before he won the award last season along with the MVP, he had not won the AP Award since 2004. Manning’s performance from last season is going to be hard to duplicate, however if he can get anywhere close to 5000 yards and 50 touchdowns again, it’s going to be even harder to vote against him for this award.
I’ve mentioned Aaron Rodgers as a nice value in a lot of different props this offseason, and if we see this award as a consolation prize for someone, Rodgers might have a chance at it. Rodgers was hurt for most of last season and his injury derailed what was looking like a very good season. This year even though he lost one of his better receivers, the Packers’ offense is looking as deadly as ever. If the Packers win the division and make a deep run into the playoffs, it will be behind Rodgers’ arm. That should be enough to put him into contention for the award and make him a worthwhile betting pick.
Although this is normally a quarterback’s award, there is no denying that the running back with the best chance at beating out all of these quarterbacks is LeSean McCoy. McCoy brings similar skills that Faulk brought in his AP Award seasons, and even though McCoy is going to have to have close to 2500 all-purpose yards to even sniff this award, does anyone doubt his ability to do it? He has well over 2000 all purpose yards a season ago, and if the Eagles are as good as they were a season ago, it will likely be because of the hard running and pass catching from McCoy. Even though it’s a longer shot in today’s NFL, McCoy is the only running back that could win it.