NFL Picks: Andrew Luck Player Props for 2014 Season

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, August 5, 2014 5:22 AM GMT

The Colts might have one of the weakest overall rosters in the NFL, but they have won 11 games and reached the playoffs each of the past two seasons thanks mostly to QB Andrew Luck. Here's a look at some of his NFL player prop odds for the season.


 

Colts Luck-y Their QB Is This Good
If you held an NFL Draft today where you could keep said player for the next 10 years, I can just about guarantee that Luck would be the top overall choice by all 32 general managers in the league. He followed in Peyton Manning's huge footsteps in Indianapolis and looks to be on a similar career arc as Manning (the guy you take first in the draft if it's just for one season).

While Luck was beaten out for Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2012 by Robert Griffin III, there's no doubt who the superior QB is now. Pretty much all of Luck's major numbers improved last season from his rookie campaign. He completion percentage jumped nearly six points to 60.2 and Luck cut his interceptions from 18 to 9 and fumbles from 9 to 5. His rating was 87.0 in 2014 compared to 76.5 as a rookie. Those are pretty impressive numbers considering the Colts had a pretty lousy offensive line last year and not much of a running game to speak of. Plus Luck lost his top receiver, Reggie Wayne, to a season-ending injury in Week 7.

Just for comparison, Manning's Colts were 3-13 in his rookie season and 13-3 the next. Manning, however, didn't win his first playoff game until 2003. Luck got his first last season, leading the Colts back from a 38-10 third-quarter hole in the wild-card round against visiting Kansas City for a shocking 45-44 victory, the second largest playoff comeback in league history. Luck threw for 443 yards and four touchdowns in the game and also scored on a fumble recovery. He might become the first $200 million NFL player in a couple of years.

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Luck is +1500 to win NFL MVP this season and +1800 to lead the league in passing. He's probably not ready quite yet to win MVP or throw for the most yards. The Colts didn't upgrade their running game at all and already have lost tailback Vick Ballard to a season-ending injury. He also suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1 of last season. Luck has two good tight ends in Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, but the receiving group is so-so with Wayne, who will be 36 and is returning from a serious knee injury, T.Y. Hilton and new addition Hakeem Nicks, who can't stay healthy.

Meanwhile, Luck is listed at +1200 on NFL odds to throw for more than 4,500 yards, +1600 to rush for more than 400 yards, +1300 to score seven or more rushing touchdowns, +600 to throw for at least 30 touchdowns, +1200 to score a rushing TD and throw at least one in four games or more, and +3500 to throw for more than 300  yards in eight games or more.

It's not all that easy to throw for at least 4,500 yards. Only four guys -- Manning, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan -- did in 2013. They all have way better offensive weapons than Luck does. Luck has yet to rush for more than 377 yards in his first two seasons and has totaled nine scores on the ground combined. The Colts probably prefer he not run much to save his body a beating. He had just two games in which he threw for and ran for a score in 2013. Finally, Luck passed for more than 300 yards only three times in the regular season but did in both playoff games.

 

NFL Free Picks
The only prop I would recommend here is the over 30 touchdowns. The Colts are probably going to be throwing a lot. Luck hasn't topped 23 yet but I'd expect him to hit on 32 or so.