NFL Picks Against The Spread - New Orleans Saints vs San Francisco 49ers

Joe Gavazzi

Sunday, November 6, 2016 2:12 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 6, 2016 2:12 PM UTC

With the public in love with the New Orleans winning streak, and having two weeks to consider the 49ers the worst team in the NFC, it is little wonder that few, are lining up with the 49ers this week as a NFL Pick.


New Orleans Saints (-4) vs San Francisco 49ers 4:05 ET

Every week in this spot I offer the biggest contrary selection on the week’s card. In today’s case, it is the San Francisco 49ers, who have lost 6 consecutive games against a New Orleans Saints team who is on a run of 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS following a 0-3 start. And with the Saints just upsetting Seattle for their fourth consecutive cover as underdog, it is easy to understand why the public is backing New Orleans in this one. 

Trending back to last season, the Saints are actually on a 9-3 ATS uptick. As I pointed out, they have had great success in the dog world. In fact, the underdog side has covered in all 7 Saints games. Behind the passing of QB Brees, the Saints continue to light it up when playing in their Mercedes-Benz Superdome home. It is there that they are averaging 33 PPG on 470 YPG. In the 3 games on the road, however, the Saints’ offense is much less prolific. They are scoring just 23 PPG on 342 YPG in games against the Giants, San Diego, and Kansas City. It is also a clear negative that they are now playing as a favorite following a physical game with Seattle. 

Chip Kelley was hired away from Philadelphia to turn around San Francisco fortunes that dimmed to 5-11 SU last season. In a 4 year offensive decline, the 49ers averaged just 15 PPG on 304 YPG. The 49ers are scoring 21 PPG, but still have one of the weakest offenses in the NFL at 290 YPG. Along with the fact they have the worst rush defense in the NFL, allowing 185/5.1 overland, there is little doubt why they are on a 0-6 SU ATS streak. In the last 3 of those prior to their BYE, they had failed to cover by a combined 46 points. In their game prior to the BYE, they actually led 14-0 against Tampa Bay before losing the contest 34-17. In the two games prior to the break, the 49ers allowed over 1,000 yards.

That is where you, and I, and the LONE RANGER step in and clean up the money with the contrary play of the week on San Francisco. I invite you to put the NFL ODDS in your favor and join me in my NFL PICK on the San Francisco 49ers this afternoon.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top rated sportsbooks is offering the best deals!

Free NFL Pick: 49ers +4.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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