NFL Picks Against The Spread - Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings - Week 9

Minnesota Vikings Players

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, November 5, 2016 8:12 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 5, 2016 8:12 PM UTC

The Vikings host the Lions in an early Sunday clash. The Vikings are in a good position to bounce back today. Expert capper Joe Gavazzi provides his insight on this matchup and give his free NFL pick.

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

The Detroit Lions travel to the $1 billion home of the Vikings for this NFC North divisional rivalry.  Kickoff is set for 1:00 ET, Sunday, November 6th. As part of their recent surge under HC Zimmer, the Vikings defeated the Lions by near identical counts of 28-19 and 26-16 last season. That runs the Minnesota dominance to 8-2 ATS in the series, including 5-1 ATS in Minnesota.  After a 5-0 SU beginning, I am looking for the Vikings to bounce back at home, following their Monday Night debacle at Chicago.  But, before I can tell you that story, let’s talk about the Lions.

Detroit cruised into Houston with 3 consecutive home victories by margins of 1, 3 and 3 points vs. Philly, LA and Washington respectively. Bad news for the Lions was that THEY WERE OUTGAINED IN ALL 3 OF THOSE NARROW VICTORIES with a +4 net TO margin being a positive influencing factor in the wins.  In short, they were lucky rather than good.  In last week’s visit to Houston, the chickens came home to roost. The Texans controlled the line of scrimmage, outrushing Detroit 31/105 to 14/58.  Those are edges of 75% (outrush by 30 yards), 85% (allow 30+ rushes) and 86% (rush 22 or less times) that all favored the home team. The road has not been kind to Detroit, as the loss at Houston was their 3rd straight including setbacks of 3 at Chicago and 7 at Green Bay. Today, they face a Minnesota team coming off an embarrassing loss.  That’s a negative for a Detroit team, who has covered little better than 25% of the time on the road, when facing a foe off a defeat.

There were warning signs for the Vikings, when they began the season without RB Peterson and QB Bridgewater. Newly acquired QB Bradford fit like a glove in the Vikings’ 5-0 SU ATS start. At that time, they were 29-9 ATS under HC Zimmer, including a 19-3 ATS run. But, a funny thing happened during their BYE week prior to their meeting at Philadelphia. The Vikings spent two weeks reading their press clippings. Since coming out of their BYE, they are now 0-2 SU ATS on the road with losses of 21-10 to Philly, followed by a mystifying 20-10 loss to the division rival Bears on MNF. That was an incredible “no show” by a Vikings’ defense that allowed the Bears, who were averaging just 87 running yards per game on 21 rushes, to go for 29/158 against them. Controlling the line of scrimmage the entire night, Chicago cruised to a 20-10 victory.  The question is do the Vikings bounce back on a short week, following a pair of embarrassing losses in which they scored just 10 points in each?  The answer from this bureau is a resounding YES!  Playing in their new home has been a clear positive for the Vikings who, dating to last year, have now covered 5 consecutive home games. That includes wins this season of 17-14 vs. Green Bay, 24-10 NYG and 31-13 vs. Houston.

Expect the Vikings to return to form with the benefit of their strong home field against a divisional rival they have dominated in recent meetings.  I invite you to put the NFL ODDS in your favor and join me in my NFL PICK on the Minnesota Vikings today.

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Free NFL Pick: Vikings -6Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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