Weekly we sift through the entire NFL odds board and serve up NFL picks against-the-spread for each and every game. Here's week 12's NFL betting board and our professional verdict.
NFL Week 11 Betting Recap
We enjoyed another winning week for our ATS NFL picks last week. It wasn't perfect, but during a wild week filled with shocking upsets – Rams beating the Broncos and Bengals upending the Saints, to name a few – an 8-6 winning record with our ATS picks we figure isn't bad. We'll take it proudly and add it to our seasonal tally that now improves to 63-49-1 over 8 weeks. So let's get cracking on our week 12 NFL betting picks.
Chiefs -7.0 vs. Raiders +7.0
This is a pivotal game for the Chiefs to win. Top spot in the AFC West is on the line, tied as they are with the Denver Broncos atop the standings with a 7-3 SU record. Where the Chiefs practically leap off the page is behind an 8-2 ATS record and a 7-point margin of victory on the season. On the road, they are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS this season with a mere 2.8-point margin of victory, numbers skewed by losses to the Broncos and Chiefs. This is the first time the Chiefs enter the NFL betting market as road favourites. Raiders are 0-10 SU and 5-5 ATS this season with an 11.3-point margin of defeat. Given all that is at stake for the Chiefs, the dire straits the Raiders are in, NFL bettors have to like the Chiefs as the 7-point road favourites.
Free NFL Picks: Chiefs -7.0
Bengals +1.0 vs. Texans -1.0
Odds makers have rolled out a rather modest line for this clash, set to the tune of 1-point in midweek betting after opening at 2-points. There's a bit of ambiguity about this matchup, hence NFL betting trends reveal a 50-50 split at sports betting exchanges. Bengals fluctuate on form from game-to-game, one week they play lights out while the other they come out flat. It's conceivable they would win at Houston, but backing them on the NFL trading floor has been an exercise in frustration for most NFL bettors. Who doesn't love the Texans, namely J.J. Watt. The defensive-end is the quintessential game-changer. Last week, he singlehandedly beat the Browns. Ryan Mallet wasn't bad too on his debut as the starter either. Texans are back in the playoff picture behind a 5-5 SU record. They are 6-2 ATS with a 2.5-point margin of victory, which includes their inspiring 23-7 win over the Browns as the road pups.
Free NFL Picks: Texans -1.0
Browns +3.0 vs. Falcons -3.0
The NFL betting line on this game makes little sense. Falcons are atop the NFC South with a 4-6 SU record on the season, which includes a modest 2-2 SU record at home. Falcons return home after winning back-to-back road games, but their last win over the Panthers in week 11 was anything but convincing. How they can be favoured by a field goal is anybody's guess. Inconsistent, unpredictable and just unconvincing, they are a risky NFL pick. The Browns plummeted back to earth behind a 23-7 loss to the Texans. In the Falcons, they won't face as much resistance. Certainly, Brian Hoyer won't be harassed as much as he was by J.J. Watt. Falcons defense isn't anything to write home about. On balance, the 6-4 SU Browns just seem like the better NFL pick. Browns are 5-3-2 ATS with a 2.1-point margin of victory.
Free NFL Picks: Browns +3.0
Lions +6.5 vs. Patriots -6.5
Not only are the Patriots on a roll winning six in a row, they are also 6-4 ATS this season with a 10.5-point margin of victory. Home stats speak volumes, they are undefeated in 14 straight home games with a whopping 10-4 ATS record and a 13.1-point margin of victory. The Detroit Lions are good this season, largely down to their defense. They deserve consideration on a 6.5-point spread. But they are after a 14-6 defeat to the Cardinals last week, having no answers for the first time in their last four games. Tom Brady just beat the hot Colts 43-21 on the road. Whichever way you slice this game, you have to take the Patriots on your NFL picks. Going against them since week 4 when they were torched by the Chiefs has proven to be folly. Read the fine print.
Free NFL Picks: Patriots -6.5
Packers -9.5 vs. Vikings +9.5
Packers are hot on the trot right now, shredding opponents unapologetically. They head to Minnesota after back-to-back 50-plus accounts. They are the highest scoring outfit with 330 points posted through 11 weeks of NFL betting, outscoring opponents by 105 points. The frightening pace they are on, it's going to take something special to stop them. Teddy Bridgewater brings an edge to the Vikings offense, but he'd have to play the game of his life to deny the Packers another big win. Minnesota Vikings are just 4-6 SU and 2-2 SU and ATS at home.
Free NFL Picks: Packers -9.5
Jaguars +13.5 vs. Colts -13.5
On one hand, this is an absurd NFL betting spread. The sort found on the NCAAF odds board more frequently than on the NFL odds board. It goes to show just how little stock odds makers put on the Jaguars coming up with a meaningful performance in Indianapolis. Colts are after an embarrassing loss to the Patriots. They'll be motivated to bounce back and they have a tendency to beat up on bad teams.
Free NFL Picks: Colts -13.5
Jets +4.5 vs. Bills -4.5
Buffalo Bills beat the New York Jets by 20-points in their last meeting. So it's a bit surprising they welcome the 2-8 SU New York Jets, coming off a bye, as the mere 4.5-point favourites? Then again, the Jets are coming off a 20-13 win over the Steelers in which Michael Vick went 10-of-18 for 132 yards and two touchdowns. And the Bills faltered against the Dolphins in a pivotal AFC East showdown. This could go either way, but were leaning towards the more consistent Bills as the home favourites on our NFL picks to bounce back from last week's disappointment.
Free NFL Picks: Bills -4.5
Bucs +5.5 vs. Bears -5.5
The Bears beat the Vikings and they are back in favour, not only on the NFL odds board but also amongst NFL bettors. How much stock should we put into the Bears win over the Vikings? The Bucs pulled a rabbit out of the hat with a win over the Redskins, all while covering as the hefty 8.5-point road underdogs. Both teams will be looking to build on week 11's success. Tampa Bay have been playing better, but it's a tough ask against the Chicago Bears.
Free NFL Picks: Bears -5.5
Titans +11.0 vs. Eagles -11.0
This is a hefty spread considering the Eagles just got blown off the field at Lambeau and the Tennessee Titans nearly beat the Steelers. Then again, Chip Kelly and the Eagles offense will have home advantage and the Titans really haven't done much this season. One near win isn't much to go on. Titans are 2-3 ATS on the road with a 10-point margin of defeat.
Free NFL Picks: Eagles -11.0
Cardinals +6.5 vs. Seahawks -6.5
Arizona Cardinals are one of the best performers against the spread behind an 8-2 ATS mark and a 6.1-point margin of victory. No Carson Palmer, no problem. So they showed last week in a 14-6 win over the Lions. Seahawks haven't impressed this season and against the spread they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Given the coaching, team ethos and defense the Cardinals boast, this is shaping up to a tight affair.
Free NFL Picks: Cardinals +6.5
Rams +4.5 vs. Chargers -4.5
St. Louis Rams have punched above their weight class both against the spread and in SU betting. To date, they've gotten the better of San Francisco, Seattle and Denver. That's not something to sweep under the carpet. Clearly, Rams are getting the respect now as they descend on the Chargers as the 4.5-point road pups.. This is a low spread, all things being considered. Consider Chargers have been on a bit of a decline in recent weeks however. They are 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS, highlighted by a five game skid against the spread, nothing can be taken for granted.
Free NFL Picks: Rams +4.5
Dolphins +7.0 vs. Broncos -7.0
This NFL betting spread is an overreaction to Broncos' defeat to the Rams last week. Opening as high as 8.5-points, this spread dropped down to 7-points following the major upset by the Rams. That said this is Mile High where the Broncos are tough to beat. Denver are 3-2 ATS with a 14.8-point margin of victory and 9-5-1 ATS with 15.1-point margin of victory since 2013. Broncos on 7-points against a modest team like the Dolphins is a steal on your NFL picks.
Free NFL Picks: Broncos -7.0
Redskins +9.0 vs. Niners -9.0
Initially, this appears to be a huge spread for the Niners to cover. Consider the Redskins are a right mess and winless behind RGIII this season in three complete starts, outscored by 39-to-73 for a 34-point margin of defeat or 11.3-points per game, the 9-point NFL betting spread on the odds board seems appropriate. That and the Niners defense should have a field day with RGII and the Redskins.
Free NFL Picks: Niners -9.0
Cowboys -3.0 vs. Giants +3.0
Giants are on a five-game skid. Cowboys are in a battle with the Eagles for top spot in the NFC East. The Cowboys are only the second road favourites on week 12's NFL betting board after the Kansas City Chiefs. They are coming off a win over the Jaguars and a bye week. Tony Romo appears to be fit and raring to go. Cowboys top rushing offense against Giants bottom-ranked rushing defense is a mismatch of huge proportions.
Free NFL Picks: Cowboys -3.0
Ravens +3.0 vs. Saints -3.0
Despite back-to-back home defeats, sportsbooks like 5Dimes install the Saints as the 3-point home favourites. This is the last opportunity for the Saints to salvage what's left of their disappointing season. Saints haven't lost three straight at home in almost ten years. Baltimore Ravens are fighting for advancement in a tough AFC North division. But they struggle on the road. They are just 1-3-1 ATS this season, 4-8-1 ATS since 2013.
Free NFL Picks: Saints -3.0