NFL Picks Against-the-Spread for all Week 11 Games

Nikki Adams

Thursday, November 13, 2014 5:49 PM GMT

We look at the entire NFL betting card for week 11 and serve up our NFL picks against the spread. Read on for our comprehensive week 11 preview and picks.

Week 10 NFL Betting Recap
Last week we enjoyed a great turnout for our ATS picks; we went 11-2 for the entire NFL betting slate, including predicting the upset by the Niners over the Saints at home. Week 10's almost perfect run improves our overall record to 55-42-1 through the last six weeks of the NFL season. Let's make more great strides with our NFL picks as we look ahead to week 11's offerings on the NFL odds boards.

 

Bills +5.5 vs. Dolphins -5.5
Dolphins were victims of the latest come-from-behind win by the Detroit Lions last week. Similarly, the Bills allowed the Chiefs to come-from-behind and clinch the narrow 17-13 win in Buffalo last week. Sets up a rather interesting primetime clash on Thursday between these AFC East rivals, both sat on a 5-4 SU record, tied for second place in the division behind the Patriots, and chasing a wildcard spot.

It goes without saying it's an important game for both sides to win, not to mention one of the toughest to handicap on week 11's NFL betting slate. Dolphins are 2-2 SU and ATS at home this season with a 7-point margin of victory. Bills are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road this season with 5-point margin of victory and an average 9.4-point margin of cover ATS. What's more, the Bills are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games with the Dolphins, including a 29-10 win as a 1.5-point home favourite earlier this season. The NFL betting lines opened with the Dolphins as the 4-point favourites, but they've been bet up to 5.5-points by midweek. This game is poised to go either way given what is at stake for both AFC hopefuls, but 5.5-points it's perhaps just too many points to be giving the No.6 home rushing offense in the league against the No.7 road rushing defense.

Free NFL Picks: Bills +5.5

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Falcons +1.5 vs. Panthers -1.5
Carolina Panthers were decimated by Mark Sanchez and the Eagles 45-21 on Monday Night Primetime Football. The most concerning aspect was how easily it came about. From the get go the Panthers were playing from behind and by halftime, when they were down 31-7, it was essentially game over. Cue week 11 NFL betting, and the Panthers are the nominal home chalk in the aftermath of the debacle. Except they aren't inspiring NFL betting faith at the moment, even against a side that is technically as bad as they are. Almost 60% of the public is behind Atlanta across sports betting exchanges. Go figure.

Atlanta and Carolina are both 3-6 SU on the season, tied for second place in an underwhelming NFC South division. Panthers are 5-5 ATS on the season while Falcons are 4-5ATS on the season. Falcons only just clinched their first road win and cover behind a 27-17 win over the Bucs as the 1-point road faves. Apparently, that's enough to encourage the public to buy what they are selling. Typically, one road win doesn't mean a team is back, but the NFC South is in such a complete mess that the Falcons can afford such optimism. Panthers just can't seem to buy a win no matter where they are playing.

Free NFL Picks: Falcons +1.5

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Bengals +7.0 vs. Saints -7.0
Bengals have reverted back to mediocrity; although the humiliating 24-3 defeat to the Browns on last Thursday was a curveball few NFL bettors could have predicted. Bengals have gone 2-3-1 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games, since coming out of their week 3 bye with a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS record. For the season, they are 4-4-1 ATS, which includes a 1-2 ATS record on the road along with a discouraging minus 15.3-point margin of defeat (on par with the Jacksonville Jaguars to put it into NFL betting perspective).

Saints are after their first home defeat since 2012, a 27-24 loss to the Niners. Some would argue they were robbed in that game. Others would point to costly turnovers by Drew Brees and just some sloppy play all around. Nonetheless, bookies firmly install the Saints as the 7-point home chalk at the expense of the Bengals, an NFL betting outlook that has more to do with just how badly the Bengals have accounted since week 3 NFL betting rather than how brilliantly the Saints have played this season (which, let's face it, they haven't). Of course, boasting an 11-1-0 SU record at the Superdome, which includes a 9-3-0 ATS record, since 2013 helps. Take the Saints as the 7-point home chalk.

Free NFL Picks: Saints -7.0

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Broncos -9.5 vs. Rams +9.5
Broncos are riding high behind a 7-2 SU record and a 5-4 ATS mark on the season, which includes an average 9.3-point margin of victory. Overall, the Broncos have outscored the opposition 286-to-202. Last week, they showed how to beat up on bad teams in a 41-17 win at Oakland. St. Louis Rams have been a tough nut to crack this season, particularly by Seattle and San Francisco to the chagrin of NFL aficionados. Those rare successes have some NFL bettors backing the Rams as the 9.5-point home pups (29% of the market share is on Rams to cover). Fact is they are just 3-6 ATS on the season with a 9.8-point margin of defeat. The last two quality outfits to take on the Rams – Chiefs and Cardinals – blew the Rams 65-21 combined; that's an average of 22-points.

NFL Picks: Broncos -9.5

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Texans +3.0 vs. Browns -3.0
Browns are in the unlikeliest of positions – top of the AFC North behind a 6-3 SU record and in a position to advance their lead at the expense of the Houston Texans (4-5 SU). Public is divided almost down the middle on this game, largely down to preconceived notions about the Browns. An argument is to be had about the win over the Bengals: just how much stock should NFL bettors put into a win over the struggling Bengals, really. Houston Texans are coming off a bye. They have lost four of their last five games, but they have an auspicious stretch on the schedule ahead. Good news is Arian Foster is reported to be fit for the game. If there were a game-changer, it would be Foster's lethal presence on the field.

Free NFL Picks: Texans +3.0

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Vikings +3.0 vs. Bears -3.0
The Chicago Bears are an utter and complete mess on and off the field, it's a wonder anybody is willing to entrust them with their money in week 11 NFL betting. The team has no faith in Jay Cutler whatsoever and it's showing on the field. The debacle against the Packers was one of the worst performances by an NFL team this season, so pedestrian and average were the Bears in the 55-14 beat down, nobody would fault NFL viewers if they'd mistaken them for a junior varsity team easily.  Chicago are 0-3 SU and ATS at home this season behind losses to Buffalo, Green Bay and Miami. Vikings might be just 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS this season, but they strike an attractive pose right now as the value NFL pick.

Free NFL Pick: Vikings +3.0

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Seahawks +1.0 vs. Chiefs -1.0
It's no surprise the Seahawks have the lion's share of the NFL betting market on this game. They are the defending champions after all, so as the nominal road pups, priced anywhere from 1 to 2-points depending on your sportsbook of choice, that equates to value for most NFL bettors. (Some books have whittled this game to a PICK.) Whichever way you slice it, something about the Seahawks just doesn't inspire the buying feeling. They've left much to be desired, particularly on the road where they are 1-3- ATS this season, hobnobbing with the likes of Jaguars, Giants and Titans with some of the worst ATS records this season. Chiefs, on the other hand, do behind a 7-2 ATS record on the season, which includes a 3-1 ATS record at home, comprised of an average 13-point margin of victory. Not only have the Chiefs been consistent since week 3 NFL betting, steadily climbing up the division table behind level-headed play, but they've also put down some eyebrow raising wins – such as laying to waste the Patriots at Arrowhead.

Free NFL Picks: Chiefs -1.0

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Niners -3.5 vs. Giants +3.5
San Francisco rolled over the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome last weekend, a win that should send them to the Big Apple on a wave of confidence. San Francisco haven't been clinical in their wins as they were last season, but they are getting the job done somehow. G-men, on the other hand, have lost the plot behind four straight defeats. Niners need to continue winning if they hope to make the playoffs this season. Niners are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 road games, which includes a 3-2 ATS mark this season.

Free NFL Picks: Niners -3.5

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Bucs +8.5 vs. Redskins +8.5
RGIII's return fell short of expectations as the Redskins suffered a 29-26 defeat to the Vikings. Most NFL bettors, however, fancy his chances against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers side that is just god awful and uninspiring this season. But do the Redskins deserve to be more than 7-point favourites against anybody this season when they are just 3-6 ATS at home this season? The only team they beat by more than  touchdown were the Jaguars – 41-10 in week 2 NFL betting, doing so behind Kirk Cousins and not RGIII mind. They only managed to beat the Titans and Cowboys since then and by no more than a field goal – once again, doing so without RGIII. Frankly, RGIII is yet to win and cover a game for Redskin backers. A  touchdown-plus advantage to the Redskins, even in such a matchup, seems just way too many points to be giving an unproven entity. Bucs are 3-1 ATS on the road this season.

Free NFL Picks: Bucs +8.5

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Raiders +11.5 vs. Chargers -11.5
After the Chargers were wiped away in a 37-0 loss in Miami, how can NFL bettors trust them with a 11.5-point spread. This has the makings of a trap on the NFL odds board. Granted the Raiders are winless, headed into golf season rather than post season. But they've put in some plucky efforts of late, particularly against the Seahawks a fortnight ago. Indeed, they are 3-1 ATS on the road this season, which includes covering the hefty 12-point spread at the expense of Seattle.

Free NFL Picks: Raiders +11.5

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Lions +1.0 vs. Cardinals -1.0
Cardinals have the best record on the season at 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. That is under threat now that Carson Palmer is out with a season-ending ACL injury. Drew Stanton is to take over at centre, he's 2-1 SU with the Cardinals after covering for Palmer earlier this season (out with a nerve injury). It's quite possible, the public is writing off the Cardinals prematurely – 53% are backing the Lions on their weekend NFL picks. An 8-1 record is down to team effort, not just Palmer. Still the Cardinals are 6-0 SU behind their No.1 quarterback, and that's nothing to scoff at. Detroit Lions loom as the tempting NFL pick, not only because they have form and momentum. They also have shown guts and grit this season, previously unheard of where they were concerned. What's more, Calvin Johnson is back, which isn't good news for the Cardinals.

Free NFL Picks: Lions +1

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Eagles +6.0 vs. Packers -6.0
After Aaron Rodgers otherworldly performance against the Bears, it's hard to bet against the Packers. Green Bay are 5-3-1 ATS on the season, with an average 8-point margin of victory. At home, they are a perfect 3-0-1 ATS with a whopping 25.2-point margin of victory. Any fears Eagles' fans might have entertained about the post Nick Foles era were swept neatly aside behind a confident, self-assured performance by the backup, leading the Eagles to a 45-21 win over the Panthers on Monday. To expect he'd pull off a similar performance at Lambeau Field next Sunday is wildly optimistic, if not nigh impossible. Packers are playing exceptionally well behind Aaron Rodgers. It would take an otherworldly performance by Mark Sanchez, in only his second NFL start since 2012, to pull off the feat. Only 33% of the public has put down money on the Eagles against the Packers. Telling isn't it.

Free NFL Picks: Packers -6.0

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Patriots +3.0 vs. Colts -3.0
This is the matchup NFL bettors have had circled since the start of the season,  an AFC rivalry that marks the old guard vs. new guard in football happily colliding at a point in the season when both are playing some of their best football. The Patriots have the 4-1 SU edge over the Colts in their last five meetings and they are 16-2-1 ATS in their last 19 games when playing Colts. Since Andrew Luck has been calling the shots at centre, Brady smoked the Colts 43-22 (2013) and 59-24 (2014), albeit both games were in New England. This is their first meeting in Indianapolis, so the Colts turn the tables on the Patriots. Bookies fancy the Colts as the 3-point favourites, who are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS on the season. Patriots do have their challenges on the road – Arrowhead springs to mind. However, since then the Patriots have been undeniable, winning five in a row including a statement win over the Denver Broncos in New England. A well-rested Tom Brady and Co. can't possibly be underestimated on the road.

Free NFL Picks: Patriots +3.5

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Steelers -5.5 vs. Titans +5.5
So the Steelers fell flat on their faces in Cleveland last week. A missed opportunity they'll not want to rue in the coming weeks. After the three-game winning stretch, a letdown was bound to happen. And the Browns are a good team. The hapless Titans however are one of the worst offerings this season, so it's somewhat surprising that the Steelers are favoured by less than  six-points. The idea that Zach Mettenberger and the Titans can keep this game close to make it competitive is preposterous, not least improbable. Titans are 2-6-1 ATS this season with an 8.8-point margin of defeat on average and they are 0-3-1 ATS at home with a 7.2-point margin of defeat. Steelers as the 5.5-point road chalk is the value NFL pick. Who scheduled this game for a Monday Night anyway?

Free NFL Picks: Steelers -5.5

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