Another wild week of predicting the entire NFL slate looms before us. Join us for our Week 10 game-by-game preview and find out what NFL picks we’ve served up.
Week 9 NFL Betting Recap
Last week was one of the wildest weeks in NFL betting this season, the surprises were endless as the hapless Raiders pulled off their second straight cover as underdogs by 8-points and plus; the Dolphins snuffed out the Chargers; Patriots threw down the gauntlet as the home underdogs to the Broncos; and the Cowboys stuttered to a home defeat to the Cardinals. What’s in store for us this week on the NFL odds board? Let’s find out, shall we.
Browns vs. Bengals -6.0
This divisional clash isn’t as straightforward as the bookies would have you believe. Bengals are only 4-3-1 ATS on the season with 0.9-point average margin of victory. To say they haven’t impressed since falling off their lofty perch behind a 3-0 SU start to the season is an understatement. They would appear to be fairly safe money in the bank at home behind an overall 3-1-1 ATS mark that boasts a 10.6-margin of victory. That’s until recent ATS trends, which reveal they’re only 1-1-1 ATS at home in their last three games with an average of 6.5-point margin of victory – the only cover coming at the expense of the Ravens in week 8 NFL betting as mere 1-point faves. Last week, they pushed on a 33-23 win over the Jaguars. Considering these trends in Bengals’ last few home games, it’s hardly surprising the NFL betting public isn’t entirely sold on their NFL odds.
In the other corner: Cleveland with an overall 4-2-2 ATS but a 1-1-1 ATS, which includes a shocking 24-6 loss to Jacksonville Jaguars. That said Cleveland have played up to divisional opponents this season, their best result beating the Steelers 31-10 at home. They are enjoying a two-game winning streak and have attracted 39% of the market on this game. That is telling.
A 6-point spread for a divisional clash, not to mention an Ohio-State clash, between two sides that are on a winning run of form is tough to call. Past trends all point to Cincy – solid at home with an 11-2-1 ATS record and 11-2 SU at home since 2013. But, for some reason, the Browns seem more tempting to us. Not only are they behind a 2-1 head-to-head record with the Bengals in their last three games but they’ve been overachieving this season while the Bengals, frankly, have been underachieving. We’re going out on a limb with our NFL pick on this game, against the market and public grain alike, and taking the Browns. Yikes.
Free NFL Pick: Browns +6.0
Falcons vs. Buccaneers +1.0
The last meeting between these two sides resulted in a 56-14 annihilation of the Bucs by Matt Ryan and the Falcons. That was the Falcons last win of the season. Overall, the Falcons have lost five in a row and they are 3-5-0 ATS for the season, 0-4-0 ATS on the road. They go into this clash as the 1-point favourites, surely a small enough spread for them to cover you’d think. Indeed, 72% of the public trusts its money with the Falcons.
Free NFL Pick: Falcons -1.0
Cowboys vs. Jaguars +7.5
Until the Tony Romo injury report is revealed this game is going to remain off the NFL odds board. It shouldn’t really matter against a one-win team. But when that one-win team is enjoying a hot streak against the spread, it does. What’s more, the Cowboys dropped their last two games to the Redskins and Cardinals when forced to play without Romo. If Romo doesn’t play on Sunday, the Jaguars will remain our vogue NFL pick against the spread.
Free NFL Pick: Jaguars +7.5
Chiefs vs. Bills +1.0
Kansas City Chiefs have covered in six of the last seven weeks and they’ve won three in a row to leapfrog San Diego in the AFC West standings. On the road, they are 3-1-0 ATS ahead of this game with a 2.5-point margin of victory and a 9.0-point cover margin. Clearly, sportsbooks are showing respect by giving the favourable nod to the Chiefs in this game. Although it does come at the expense of a Bills side that is coming off a bye week and boasts a two-game winning streak, we’re buying it. As the NFL betting public is, behind the Chiefs in this game (almost 70-30 split).
Free NFL Pick: Chiefs -1.0
Dolphins vs. Lions -2.5
Miami Dolphins surprised NFL bettors last week when they routed the Chargers 37-0. Few could have predicted such a convincing performance. That said the Dolphins are yet to get the better of a good team this season. Detroit is emerging as one of the toughest teams to beat this season – they are 6-2 SU and 3-1 SU at home. Although they are 2-2-0 ATS at home, it includes a 7.8-point margin of victory and a 4.4-point average margin of cover, prompting us to question this rather low NFL betting spread. Lions’ top-ranked defense should make life difficult for Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins.
Free NFL Pick: Lions -2.5
Steelers vs. Jets +4.5
If you haven’t bought into the Steelers yet, isn’t it about time to start. Big Ben is playing like a possessed quarterback – 14 touchdowns in three games, all while amassing 1,127 passing yards to lead his Steelers to comprehensive wins that not only made a mockery of the NFL odds over the last few weeks, but also blew them off the board. This NFL betting line makes absolutely no sense as a result. What are the bookies on about? Surely, we can’t be expected to buy what the Jets are selling here, can we? What’s the catch? Why are the Steelers so short-changed? They’ve outscored the opposition by 124-to-80, which yields a 14.6-point cushion per game. Jet, by comparison, have rolled over like a lush doormat, outscored by 98 points through 9 games, which yields 10.8-point margin of defeat per game on average. Lay the points with the Steelers.
Free NFL Pick: Steelers -4.5
Niners vs. Saints -4.5
The Saints are unbeatable at home, so say recent stats. They are 12-5-0 ATS as home favourites since 2012 and, if we’re to narrow that to a smaller sample size from 2013 and onwards, they are 9-2-0 ATS as home favourites with a staggering 16.8-margin of victory and 10-point cover margin. In other words betting against the Saints at home is folly, in no uncertain terms.
Yet, only 63% of NFL bets recorded in early NFL trades are backing the Saints, which is telling. So not a sure thing on your NFL picks then. Most likely, the reason for that is the second-best defense in the league that has allowed the Niners (4-4 SU and ATS) to stay close in each and every game. Indeed, the Niners have been only outscored by 10-points through eight games, which yields a minus 1.25-point margin per game. Saints have yet to face such a formidable defense this season. Consider they are only just after righting the ship to improve to .500 on the season, behind their first back-to-back wins, how convincing are they as the 4.5-point home chalk?
Free NFL Pick: Niners +4.5
Titans vs. Ravens -9.5
Ravens are after a disappointing two-game road stretch, culminating in a shelling in Pittsburgh they’d rather forget sooner than later. Fortunately, the hapless Titans (2-6 SU and 2-5-1 ATS) provide the perfect platform upon which they bounce back. In the last two games, the Titans have conceded an average of 24.5-points while averaging 16.5-points scored. Five of their eight games were blowout defeats and overall they’ve been outscored by 65-points on the season thus far for an average of 8.13-points per game. Baltimore is 3-1-0 ATS as home favourites with an average margin of 15.8-points and a 12.2-point cover margin.
Free NFL Pick: Ravens -9.5
Broncos vs. Raiders +11.0
Raiders have impressed NFL bettors of late, especially after covering the absurd spread in week 9 NFL betting (15-points in early NFL trades) at the expense of the Seattle Seahawks. So much so, they’ve garnered 31% of market trades on this game already. The idea they would accomplish the feat at the expense of the Broncos is somewhat surprising. Raiders passing defense is 10th in the league according to the stats, which might by why NFL bettors are leaning towards the Raiders on their ATS NFL picks. But let’s not forgot the calibre of teams they’ve faced so far – only two boast passing offenses that rank in the top ten – Patriots and Charges. What’s more, Peyton Manning is after a forgettable outing in New England, he’s going to have something to prove here. And he’ll want to do it in a big way. Take the Broncos on your NFL picks.
Free NFL Pick: Broncos -11.0 at YouWager
Giants vs. Seahawks -9.0
To some extent, this NFL betting line is more of a negative reflection on the Giants rather than any appreciation for the Seahawks. The Giants are banged up and bruised. They’ve lost the plot, well and truly, behind a three-game losing streak all while being outscored 98-to-45, which yields a staggering minus 17.6-point differential per game. Monday Night’s 40-24 loss to the Colts was yet another demoralising defeat that thrusts the Giants into question. A short week before a date with Seattle, one of the toughest teams to beat at home, is unfortunate. Seahawks are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS at home this season with a 6.2-point margin. Although the Seahawks aren’t as clinical as they were last year, the distraught Giants should hardly present an obstacle. Unless the Giants find some motivation and confidence or Rams-like pluck, they’re in real danger of taking a fourth, straight beat down.
Free NFL Pick: Seahawks -9.0
Rams vs. Cardinals -7.0
Everybody is buying what the Rams are selling at the moment. That’s what early NFL betting reports reveal with the public split almost down the middle for this game. Rams have cornered 47% of the early NFL betting markets, a direct reaction to their famous win and cover last week at the expense of the Niners in a 13-10 victory. Cardinals are no fools however. As the only team to lose just one game this season and cover six of their last eight games, they must be doing something right. They won’t make the mistake of underestimating the Rams. While they’re not a team that typically blows the opposition off the field – they play sensible, balanced football on both sides of the ball – and they’ll be ready for the Rams. Keep in mind, the Rams beat the Seahawks only to lose badly the next week in Kansas City 34-7. Take the Cardinals minus the points on your NFL picks.
Free NFL Pick: Cardinals -7.0
Bears vs. Packers -7.0
Surprisingly, online betting sites are recording money split almost down the middle – 42% on the road dogs and just 52% on the home faves. The divisional nature probably explains this divide. Consider the Bears are mired in the NFC North basement, behind a two-game losing streak and questionable play from their quarterback, you’d think the NFL betting public would defer to the better the team with the prolific, relaxed, future Hall of Fame quarterback. Particularly when said unperturbed team is set to host the Bears on home turf where they are comfortably 2-0-1 ATS this season with a 20-point margin of victory and 12.5-point margin of cover. In our opinion, Packers are being underrated here at the expense of an underachieving Bears on the NFL odds board, which makes no sense.
Free NFL Pick: Packers -7.0
Panthers vs. Eagles -6.0
Panthers are free falling at the moment, down to second in the NFC South behind a depressing 28-10 defeat at home to the Saints. Eagles, meanwhile, are back to the top of the NFC East with a win over the Houston Texans behind second-tier quarterback Mark Sanchez. This game is a tossup in more ways than one. Those sepia-toned memories of Mark Sanchez in a Jets’ outfit have probably forced the hand of some NFL bettors, deferring to the better quarterback in Cam Newton and the Panthers on their NFL picks. The idea is that the Panthers have to somehow figure things out and right the ship sooner rather than later. However, Sanchez now has a much better team to work with than he did when he was kitted out in Jets’ colours. And isn’t the idea of a Panthers comeback downplaying the issues with Cam Newton, who is clearly not playing up to his lofty standards and isn’t 100% fit – he’s flush off a 39.4 passer rating, his lowest career rating yet.
Free NFL Pick: Eagles -6.0