The NFL season is coming down to the wire. Join us as we preview week 16's NFL betting slate, complete with NFL odds against the spread and serve up NFL picks for each and every game.
Read For More Insight Into This Weekend's Matchups:
Week 15 NFL Betting Recap
Last week we enjoyed a modest turnout with our NFL picks against the spread, going 8-8 overall. We improve to 92-81-1 through 12 weeks of NFL action. Here's our breakdown of week 16's NFL matchups and our NFL picks against the spread.
Shop for the Best Betting Lines on SBR's NFL Odds Page.
Titans vs. Jaguars
This is the least appealing game of the week, sadly scheduled for Thursday Night Primetime Football. Although it offers very little viewing appeal, it's still an NFL betting opportunity to consider. In a battle of the inept vs. inept, we lean to the side that is just that little bit better in our opinion. Although both are 3-11 SU and average approximately 12-point margins of defeat, the Jaguars have been playing slightly better of late. Plus they have home advantage, where they are 2-5 SU and ATS this season.
NFL Picks: Jaguars -3.0
Eagles vs. Redskins
Mark Sanchez and the Eagles are desperate to bounce back after a loss to the Cowboys at home last week saw them slip out of pole position in the NFC East. You have to admit they have a good shot with the hapless 3-11 SU Redskins in week 16 NFL betting. The Redskins have lost six in a row ahead of this clash; importantly, they have yet to win a game behind RGIII. Eagles are 8-6 ATS this season with an average 5-point margin of victory. Against lesser teams, they've enjoyed double-digit victories for the most part this season.
NFL Picks: Eagles -7.5
Chargers vs. Niners
This game is a complete tossup between two teams that have lost the NFL public's support behind rather lackadaisical performances in recent weeks. Given the Niners are out of the playoffs now, the pressure is off their shoulders. Maybe that will allow Colin Kaepernick to swing more freely and lead the Niners to a win. He really has a lot to prove, though. Philip Rivers and the Chargers are only as good as their NFL schedule this season, they've proven that in recent weeks as they've failed almost against all top opposition, save for a lucky turn against the Ravens a few weeks back.
NFL Picks: Niners -1.0
Falcons vs. Saints
Granted the Saints haven't been a force to be reckoned with at the Superdome this season, having lost an incredible four in a row. But it's down to the wire and the Saints have to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. On Monday, the Saints thrashed the Bears 38-15 on the road, covering as the 3-point road chalk. They are back to the top of the NFC South division. Falcons are riding a two-game losing streak behind losses to the Packers and Steelers. Offensively, the Falcons have shown plenty of positives but defense has let them down. Not unlike the Saints, one could say, which makes this a complete tossup. NFL bettors shouldn't base too much on performances of the previous week, especially when dealing with inconsistent teams. But we're breaking that rule and going with the Saints, with the idea that the changes Sean Payton made last week prove a turning point for the Saints.
NFL Picks: Saints -6.0
Ravens vs. Texans
The NFL odds are stacked against the Texans rather heavily in their upcoming clash with the Baltimore Ravens, and for good reason. Texans have lost Ryan Fitzpatrick, over and above already losing Ryan Mallet and Tom Savage as well. They are down to a fourth-string quarterback with just two games left on the season. One has to consider their playoff hopes are gone, if not fading fast. Ravens are still in it but they have to win out down the stretch. Texans defense poses a challenge for Joe Flacco and company, but NFL bettors will still fancy their chances when the Texans offense is forced to rely on Keenum or Lewis to keep up.
NFL Picks: Ravens -5.5
Browns +3.5 vs. Panthers -3.5
So the Johnny Manziel era began. On a flop. Is anybody really surprised Manziel wasn't "money" in week 15 NFL betting. We're not particularly, recommending our readers to bet against him without any hesitation last week. Frankly, we couldn't quite understand how the Browns emerged the nominal favourites against the Bengals. In any event, we're predicting the growing pains continue in Carolina this week against a Panthers team, though not exactly up to its 2013-2014 standard but still very much in the playoff picture and therefore motivated to win out down the stretch.
NFL Picks: Panthers -3.5
Lions vs. Bears
On Thanksgiving, the Lions hosted the Bears and ran away 34-17 winners, cashing both SU and as the 7-point home chalk. Replicating that performance on the road typically is challenging for any team, not just a Lions side that is more about defense than offense. Given they are taking on the Bears, however, who are spiralling out of control behind three abysmal losses, including a lacklustre 31-15 loss to the Saints on Monday Night Football betting, the spread doesn't seem big enough, all of a sudden. The Bears are in complete disarray at the moment. Disenchantment, discontent and disinterest are just some of the many issues the players are dealing with, permeating from the locker room and spilling forth onto the field. Jay Cutler's game continues to worsen in proportion to the general dissatisfaction and waning team confidence. How can anyone back the underachieving Bears on their NFL picks?
NFL Picks: Lions -7.0
Packers vs. Bucs
Green Bay Packers dropped the ball in Buffalo last week, a loss that cost them top spot in the NFC North, and could even cost them a spot in the playoffs if they don't bounce back this week. On the road, the Packers aren't as good as they are at Lambeau. But this is a must-win game for the Packers, no ifs or buts about it. They need to put up or shut up and go home. Fortunately, they take on the hapless Bucs, who are 0-6 SU at home and just 1-5 ATS with a 9.6-point margin of defeat. Ten points on the spread does seem like a lot to be giving the Packers when they are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS on the road. But with some help from the mistake prone Bucs, they Packers could cover this rather generous 10.5-point spread. Well, that's what we're banking on at least.
NFL Picks: Packers -10.5
Chiefs vs. Steelers
This is going to be a must-see game between two teams that are looking to clinch playoff berths with just two games left on the season. It's a respectably tight NFL betting line set to the tune of 3-points, in tribute to the occasion and sense of urgency both teams bring into week 16 NFL betting. There are angles for profit on both sides of the coin: mainly because the Chiefs' defense could do its part to keep this game close. That being said if the Steelers get going they can put up points in a hurry, effectively running away with the game. On the offensive side of the ball, the Chiefs simply can't keep up with the more potent offenses in the league.
NFL Picks: Steelers -3.0
Vikings +6.5 vs. Dolphins -6.5
The Vikings have been punching above their weight class in recent weeks. Last week, they gave the Lions a run for their money and although they lost 16-14 they pulled off the cover as the 8-point road favourites. Clearly, the Vikings are playing for pride as the season winds down, which makes them the tempting NFL pick against a Dolphins side that seems to have lost its way over the last few weeks.
NFL Picks: Vikings +6.5
Patriots vs. Jets
This is one of the largest NFL betting spreads in week 16 NFL betting. Undoubtedly, the Patriots cut a convincing figure in this matchup to win straight up, given they boast a league-leading 11-3 record and are after winning the AFC East title last week. But is it too many points to be giving the Patriots on the road? After all, the last time this pair met, the Patriots barely squeaked by with a 27-25 win at the Foxboro. Patriots are only 4-3 ATS on the road with a 3.4-point margin of victory. Still, the Patriots are rounding to form down the stretch and with the momentum of a 41-13 dismantling of the Dolphins at home in week 15 NFL betting, they could roll into New York and deliver a hefty defeat in our opinion. Jets offense isn't dynamic enough to keep up and their defense seems to be slowing down as the season winds down. Take the Patriots as the hefty road favourites on your NFL picks.
NFL Picks: Patriots -10.0
Giants +5.0 vs. Rams -5.0
Giants have won two in a row, beating a couple of soft teams in the league quite convincingly. Rams are behind a 12-6 loss to the Cardinals last Thursday. This is a clash between two teams that have little to play for on the season, save for pride. Giants leave a lot to be desired with a 5-9 SU mark and a 6-8 ATS mark on the season. Nobody likes to play the Rams; they are a tough nut to crack and tough to beat. This game could go either way but one thing we do know is that Eli Manning hasn't fared well against solid defenses such as the Rams have. If the Rams can get Eli Manning to turnover the ball several times, they could run away with this game.
NFL Picks: Rams -5.0
Bills vs. Raiders
It's never a good idea to put too merit on the previous week's results but it is hard to ignore the upset the Bills served up in week 15 NFL betting behind a home win over the Packers, a result that almost singlehandedly propels them into week 16's round of gridiron action as the decided favourites at 5.5-points. And a result that has most NFL pundits behind the Bills winning this game. Where there is less consensus is against the spread as some fancy the Raiders to cover at home. After all, the Raiders won their last two home games against the Chiefs and Niners, all while covering as the home underdogs as well, obviously. For our money, we're behind the Bills across the board, More so now as the week presses forward. The NFL lines opened around the 6-to-6.5-point mark at some sportsbooks, higher prices that would have caused us to agree with the aforementioned assessment. As the NFL lines whittle down though, to 5.5-points now, and possibly even lower, were more inclined towards the Bills, sharp~ish.
NFL Picks: Bills -5.5
Colts vs. Cowboys
Andrew Luck and the Colts persevered against the Houston Texans last week to win 17-10 and, in turn, clinch the AFC South title. Luck brings his fast-paced offense to the AT&T Stadium on Sunday, hoping to put a dent in Dallas' postseason plans. Colts have struggled a bit of late on the road lately. Case-and-point: they needed a last-gasp drive to beat the Browns 25-24 in week 14 NFL betting. But with the monkey off their backs, now that they've clinched the divisional title and are assured a spot in the playoffs, they can play a bit more freely. That alone makes them the tempting NFL pick as the 3-point road pups. Consider as well the Cowboys aren't as good a home team as they are a road team this season – their 10-4 SU mark includes a 7-0 SU record on the road and a losing 3-4 record at home – the Colts have every chance of masterminding the upset on the NFL betting trading floor. Point is: whichever way you slice this game, the Cowboys look a tad overrated, not to mention they have the pressure of clinching the divisional title weighing heavily on their shoulders (something Tony Romo doesn't deal with so well). And they might have to do it without DeMarco Murray, who underwent surgery this week.
NFL Picks: Colts +3.0
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
No team has been underrated as much as the Cardinals have been this season, yet they emerge with a 10-4 ATS mark on the season, which is the best mark of the entire league. You can't find a team more hard done by in NFL betting markets than the Cardinals. That fact alone makes them a tempting bet this week as the significant 7.5-point underdogs at home to divisional rivals Seattle Seahawks. Unlike previous occasions, this isn't an instance where odds makers are unfairly underrating the Cardinals however. Drew Stanton's season ended on an injury against the Rams last week forcing the Cardinals to rely on the services of third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley for the foreseeable. That's not an auspicious turn of events, prompting the NFL odds to stack against them. Granted the Cardinals overcame various injury setbacks before, twice even overcoming Carson Palmers' injuries this season. That's not likely this time as many believe this might be just one injury setback too many for them to overcome especially in the face of the defending champions, who are rounding out to form and have their minds firmly set on clinching the divisional title for a second straight season. This could be a long and painful Sunday Night Primetime Football experience for the Cardinals.
NFL Picks: Seahawks -7.5
Broncos vs. Bengals
The highly-anticipated clash between the Broncos and Bengals rounds out week 16 NFL betting on Monday Night Primetime Football. As it stands, the Broncos are aptly matched as the 3-point road favourites, a price-point underscored by their 11-3 SU record this season, which includes a four-game winning streak ahead of this clash. Peyton Manning and the Broncos may not be as pass happy as they've been in the past, which has led to closer games than we're accustomed to seeing, but they've deployed a nice running game of late with CJ Anderson leading the charge. Importantly, they are finding ways to win. Since 2012, the Broncos are 28-21-1 ATS with a 9.6-point margin of victory. On the road, they boast a 14-9-0 ATS mark with a 6.7-point margin of victory. As overall favourites, the Broncos are 26-16-1 ATS with an 11.4-point margin of victory, marking one of the best records against the spread in the league. In other words, as sure a bet can get in NFL betting. Bengals have encouraging home stats to recommend them as well over the last two years in the NFL but the difference is this season they haven't been able to continue that positive run of form at home. They are only 3-3-1 ATS with a 1.6-point margin of victory at home. They've struggled against all sorts of teams and really haven't stood the measure of the better teams this season. As such, Broncos have to be the smart NFL pick to cover as the 3-point road faves.
NFL Picks: Broncos -3.0