NFL Picks Against the Spread for All Week 1 Games

Kevin Stott

Thursday, September 10, 2015 6:29 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 10, 2015 6:29 PM UTC

Get our free NFL picks for all 16 of the Week 1 matchups. We go over all betting lines and offer our predictions to help you lock down the best NFL picks this weekend.

The NFL’s 2015/16 Regular Season kicks off tonight when the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots and Tom Brady welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger to Gillette Stadium in Foxboro for a huge Week 1 meeting and the first Opening Day matchup by QBs with multiple Super Bowl rings, although there are many injuries and suspensions there. As the weekend approaches, let’s take one last look at all 16 NFL Week 1 game current Point Spreads and Totals and provide the most logical picks with what we’ve found. And if you think these NFL Odds will stay where they currently are with the rest of today, Friday, Saturday and Sunday still coming, you haven’t been betting the NFL long enough. If you prefer Favorites and Unders, better react now, although 14 of the 16 NFL openers have already seen their Total being bet down from Sharps when the lines were released in late April, so shop around and be smart.


Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots
Opening Point Spread:
 Patriots -6 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, April 22) 
Current Point Spread: Patriots -7 Total: 51½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

What’s Up: 
The big question here with the Point Spread (Thursday morning) is whether or not the number stays at a solid (Patriots minus) 7 or if late Patriots money drives the number to 7½ by kick off. With all the previous movement—opened -6 down to -2½ on potential Tom Brady Suspension then back up to this current 7—who’s knows if it stays put or jumps up a ½ or full point with late New England Patriots money. We shall see soon enough. One thing seems clear: This number won’t likely go back to 6½ with Pittsburgh Steelers money as the Suspensions to RB Le’Veon Bell and WR Martavis Bryant and the injury to C Maurkice Pouncey leaves the visitors playing the Super Bowl champs with many of their best players out. Toss in who retired, the flight of DC Dick LeBeau to the Titans and some real weakness with DBs (Steelers ranked #27 in Pass Defense last season) and it seems the Pittsburgh will be spending most of their time and energy trying to just stay in the this pass-happy game. 
NFL Pick: Patriots -6½ (-130) (5Dimes)


Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Opening Point Spread:
 Packers -4 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 
Current Point Spread: Packers -7 Total: 49 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

What’s Up
So, they play the Preseason to...make sure key players are injured and unable to play in the Regular Season? Maybe a jaded take as Preseasons are necessary in all professional sports, but with the Packers WR Jordy Nelson and Bears WR Kevin White injured for the season and Green Bay WR Randall Cobb and Chicago WRs Eddie Royal, Marquess Wilson and Alshon Jeffery all banged up, QBs Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler will have to be both creative and careful. The number here has steadily risen from (Green Bay minus) 4 to its current -7 here at the SuperBook in Sin City, but there are still a couple of -6½’s to be had for those who have access (Pinnacle, MGM Mirage) and it’s hard not to think this one will hit 7 everywhere and then maybe make that voyage to -7½ and maybe -8 with more weekend Packers money. Green Bay is 8-1 ATS L9 overall in this heated NFC North rivalry against the Bears and a perfect 5-0 ATS the L5 here in Chicago. ¡Vaya Con Queso! 
NFL Pick: Packers -6½ -(107) (Pinnacle)


Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
Opening Point Spread:
 Texans -1½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 
Current Point Spread: Texans -1 Total: 41 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

What’s Up
The Point Spread here has fluctuated between (Texans) -2 and Pick ‘Em with the big news here in this game was the Offseason injury to Houston Texans RB Arian Foster. But bettors saw this only as a blip as Houston had more than enough time to ready themselves for Kansas City—as well as the entire season—without Foster. The last time these two met, the Chiefs won 17-16 in Kansas City as 6½-point chalks in 2013. With these two looking to improve this season and this game meaning so much and Houston starting up again with a new QB (Brian Hoyer, Free Agent, Browns) this one is probably best watched or bet backing the Under. These teams are really close and in games like that, the Home site is usually the difference. There is a 40% chance of Rain for this game, but NRG Stadium’s retractable roof closes during wet weather in H-Town. 
NFL Pick: Chiefs & Texans Under 41


Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets
Opening Point Spread: Jets -1 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 
Current Point Spread: Jets -3 Total: 41 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

What’s Up
The public and Sharps both seem to really like the new-look New York Jets and those sentiments seem justified with the wonderful and many additions to the team’s Roster as well as how good New York AFC played in the Preseason (3-1, 85 PF-81 PA). Then toss is a Cleveland Browns team that didn’t look so great and is investing much time in a QB (Johnny Manziel) who may never lead the team and missing a very athletic and talented WR (Josh Gordon, 18.9 ypc) who’s suspended another season for a Marijuana violation (the NFL upheld this Suspension on Thursday and it looks like one team is improving and the other regressing here. Watch these Jets, although they play in now what looks like the NFL’s strongest division (AFC East) with the defending champion Patriots, Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins all looking pretty darn good for now. Time will tell. It always does.


Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills
Opening Point Spread: Colts -3 Even (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 
Current Point Spread: Colts -2½ Total: 45

What’s Up
Every week it seems there are about four to six NFL games that simply need to be watched, enjoyed, learned from and left alone at the betting window. This is exactly one of those games in Week 1 to me. New Buffalo Bills Head Coach Rex Ryan has named Tyrod Taylor his starting QB and with the Indianapolis Colts having talented QB Andrew Luck and slightly better and speedier skill position players with which to work and the Bills probably having the better D and the game at Home, there are too many conflicting realities. If this one were in Naptown it would be a completely different story.


Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Redskins
Opening Point Spread: Dolphins -2½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 
Current Point Spread: Dolphins- 3½ Total: 43½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 

What’s Up 
Another tough call because of the site. The Miami Dolphins signed NT Ndamukong Suh (Lions) as a big-priced Free Agent this Offseason and with a killer WR corps and a nice QB (Ryan Tannehill) to build around, the Fish are another team to watch but they do have a very lopsided Regular Season schedule. The Washington Redskins named Kirk Cousins their starting QB and have made Robert Griffin III a backup but until the Skins can improve Defensively, the thought is that NFL bettors will continue to fade them. Note this line has passed the Key Number of (minus) 3 and is either 3½ or even 4 in some places this morning. Markets move.


Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville
Opening Point Spread: Panthers -4 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 
Current Point Spread: Panthers -3 Total: 41 

What’s Up
This number has actually crept up to -3½ now in some places (MGM Mirage), so, as usual, the General Public is backing the Favorite here although with lines up since April, this Week 1 has gotten more attention than any single week in NFL history. Thanks, Bill Belichick. The Carolina Panthers suffered one of the biggest losses in the Preseason when the lost WR Kelvin Benjamin for the season to a freaky ACL injury in practice so Panthers QB Cam Newton will be looking for reliable TE Greg Olsen and others to try to replace some of the productivity lost due to Benjamin’s (targeted 178 times last season, 6th highest mark in NFL). The Jaguars will be without Free Agent-signee TE Julius Thomas (Broncos; Finger) who’s out for 4 weeks and is having surgery. The last time these two met was in 2011 when the Jaguars lost 16-13 in Carolina and the feeling here is that Carolina will be more focused about winning this opener knowing they’ll be without Benjamin all year. 
NFL Pick: Panthers -2½ (-138) (Bet365)


Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams
Opening Point Spread: Seahawks -3½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 
Current Point Spread: Seahawks -4 Total: 40½ 

What’s Up
All of a sudden it seems like the Seattle Seahawks will be playing this Regular Season halfway to just win games and to try to get back to and win Super Bowl 50 and now halfway to try to stick it to holdout SS Kam Chancellor who saw some of his buddies get paid and who is now sulking because the contract he desired never materialized. Dude, you’re playing a flipping game for a living and losing out on small houses ($267K) every week you sit and watch. And you were/are on the best Defense in the league, maybe the NFL’s best ever, yet you would like to squawk? Carry on then Kam. and rest assured nobody will be listening next week as they’ll all be too entrenched in readying for Week 2 and the rest of the Regular Season. I’d look for a new agent as Time is much more important than Money if you think about it. There is a -3½ in the market right now (MGM Mirage) and the feeling here is that the Rams won’t be catching Seattle off-guard here at Home in the gateway City on Sunday and that the trade sending Sam Bradford to the Eagles for new starting QB Nick Foles could end up blowing up in St. Louis’s faces. Time will tell. Again. 
NFL Pick: Seahawks -3½ (-118) (5Dimes)


New Orleans Saints vs. Arizona Cardinals
Opening Point Spread: Cardinals -2½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 
Current Point Spread: Cardinals -2½ Total: 48 

What’s Up
There is a -3 and a 47½ currently (Thursday morning) still in the marketplace, but again here, this seems like one of those Week 1 tilts better just watched and learned from. The last time these two teams met was in 2013 when Drew Brees (55-47-4 ATS Away) and the New Orleans Saints rolled the Cardinals at Home in the Big Easy, 31-7 as 7-point favorites while the last meeting here in the Valley of the Sun, Arizona won and covered as 7-point favorites (30-20). Carson Palmer returns as QB for Arizona from a knee injury and the Cards signed Matt Barkley (Eagles) as a backup to backup Drew Stanton. Pass.


Detroit Lions vs. San Diego Chargers
Opening Point Spread: Chargers -2½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 
Current Point Spread: Chargers -3 Total: 45½ 

What’s Up
These two teams seldom play, but the last time they met here at Qualcomm Stadium in 2007, San Diego blew out the Lions, 51-15. QB Matt Stafford and the Lions may have the better WRs (Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate) but Philip Rivers (41-34-1 ATS Home) and the Bolts are at Home and Detroit will be playing in a Time Zone (PT) three hours different than their Body Clocks are used to in Detroit (ET). Again in this contest, anything can happen in this game and those are the best to avoid betting on and sometimes the best games to just watch.


Tennessee Titans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opening Point Spread: Buccaneers -3 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 
Current Point Spread: Buccaneers -3 Total: 41 

What’s Up
Still, hardly any movement at all here in this game between two teams perceived to be in the Bottom 6 in the NFL. The last time these two met, the Titans won and covered 23-17 in 2011 at Home (23-17) as 7-point favorites while in 2007 and the last meeting here in South Florida, Tampa Bay won and (barely) covered at Home (13-10) as 2-point chalks. Here, top Draft choices and Heisman Trophy winners Jameis Winston (Bucs) and Marcus Mariota (Titans) will be starting in their first Regular Season games of their young careers and the thought here is that Tampa Bay has a much better supporting cast, is at Home and may not be as bad as everyone thinks. And the Buccaneers (8/1 to win NFC South, Coral) could even end up stealing the NFC South title if everything just happens to go right this season. For a more in-depth SBR Preview of this game, click here on this link. 
NFL Pick: Buccaneers -3 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)


Cincinnati Bengals vs. Oakland Raiders
Opening Point Spread: Bengals -3 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 
Current Point Spread: Bengals -3 Total: 43 

What’s Up
Bengals money has ticked the visiting Bengals up to the 3 it’ at here at the SuperBook and the 3½ it is in most other places. The Raiders lost 34-10 at Cincinnati in 2012 in the last meeting between these two teams as 7½-point underdogs while Oakland won 20-17 here at Home at Coliseum back in 2009 as 8½-point underdogs. Like the Lions-Chargers, this one could go either way and it wouldn’t surprise if the Black and Silver won outright here at home in the Bay Area in the Regular Season opener with QB David Carr, Rookie WR Amari Cooper (Alabama), Free Agent WR Michael Crabtree (49ers) and the NFL’s best K in Sebastian Janikowski for Oakland (3-13 in 2014). (Raiders +155 Moneyline, Station Casinos) If there were one Underdog who could win outright and be (over) talked about Monday morning, it’s the Raiders. 
NFL Pick: Raiders +3½ Even (MGM Mirage)


Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos
Opening Point Spread: Broncos -4 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 
Current Point Spread: Broncos -4½ Total: 48 

What’s Up 
The expected half-point drift written here about Tuesday has happened, and that’s natural with Denver playing at Home, being the more popular team and probably a tiny bit better than Baltimore and being a Favorite. With new Denver Head Coach Gary Kubiak now calling the plays on the field and not veteran QB Peyton Manning, it’s hard to judge how the homeboys will look here in their Home opener against the Ravens although the Broncos 8-0 mark at Sports Authority Field at Mile High last season shows how hard it is for opponents to win here in the high Colorado altitude. But with TE Julius Thomas (Free Agent, Jaguars) and WR Wes Welker (Free Agent, Concussion) gone and 39-year-old Uncle Peyton said to be losing some zip on his passes, staying away and watching is the only advice to be offered up here.


New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Opening Point Spread: Cowboys -5½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 
Current Point Spread: Cowboys -6½ Total: 51½ 

What’s Up
Dallas won by 3 (at New York) and 10 points (at Dallas) last season in this series and New York NFC always seems to play America’s Team fairly tough. The Point Spread here has ticked down a ½ since last writing, and there are still 6’s (MGM Mirage, Pinnacle) in the market. With the Cowboys letting go of 1,800-yard rushing RB DeMarco Murray (Eagles), it may be best to see what Dallas is all about before betting on or against them, especially after an abysmal 1-3 Preseason (48 PF-82 PA) where they scored just 48 points than you and me. The thought here is that the underdog Giants (+225 Moneyline, MGM Mirage) could win outright here in the Sunday Night Football season debut in Jerry World. However, Big Blue is just 1-3 ATS L4 in Arlington and has some issues on Defense.
NFL Pick: Giants +7 (-135) (5Dimes)


Philiadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons
Opening Point Spread: Eagles -1½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 
Point Spread: Eagles -3 Total: 55½ 

What’s Up
This Monday Night Football season debut from the Georgia Dome Atlanta will give us all a chance to see if the Eagles are as good as they looked in the Preseason  (3-1, 133 PF-77 PA) and if you want to bet Philadelphia and still get them priced under (minus) 3, best jump brother as the 2½ hanging on the betting board over at the MGM Mirage may evaporate before 5 p.m. today. Logic says the General Public keeps betting on the Eagles and that this number may hit (minus) 4 by kickoff Monday night. With QB Sam Bradford (Rams) and RB DeMarco Murray (Cowboys) making their Regular Season debuts, expect creative Philadelphia Head Coach Chip Kelly to work as many guys into the Offense to confuse the Dirty Birds as possible.. The last time these two teams played, the Falcons won 30-17 in the City of Brotherly Love and Cheesesteaks as the visitors showed which bird flew highest that particular day. 
NFL Pick: Eagles -2½ (MGM Mirage)


Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers
Opening Point Spread: 49ers -3½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 
Current Point Spread: Vikings -2½ Total: 41½ 

What’s Up
The San Francisco 49ers actually opened up as 3½-point favorites here in this Week 1 game against the Minnesota Vikings.back in late april when we were all still Young and full of zest. Then, San Francisco saw a mass flight of Coaches and Players out of the Bay Area and the betting public quickly dumped loads of Minnesota money on this game as well as pounding (against) the Niners in the Futures Book markets where their Season Team Win Total plummeted from 8 to 6½. The Vikings get RB Adrian Peterson back from a one-year Suspension and with second-year signal caller QB Teddy Bridgewater and the acquisition of Free Agent WR Mike Wallace (Dolphins), the Vikings are one of the few teams experts and pundits  think will improve much this 2015/15  NFL Regular Season. So here (SBR Game Preview link), the Road Underdog is now as the solid Favorite here in a massive 6-point move Minnesota’s way. Although this could be a real dogfight in Santa Clara, the 49ers were outgained and outplayed down the homestretch last season by every team it played and that was with the players they had then, before this freakish mass exodus, led by former Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. Not half as strong as the Vikings +3½ (opener) offered here mid-Summer, but still maybe worth a small play in the last game on the betting board in Week 1. 
NFL Pick: Vikings -2½ (The Greek)


NFL WEEK 1 UNDERDOG MONEYLINE PICK: Oakland Raiders +155 over Cincinnatti Bengals (Station Casinos)

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