With one team as the big favorite, can we still expect value in the AFC West odds?
The Broncos stacked up again this offseason and come in at 1/6 to win the AFC West this season. Denver is even a bigger favorite than what they were in the 2012 offseason, but -600 is way too much chalk to even consider taking the Broncos. What if Peyton Manning in his ripe old age of 37 gets hurt? There is little value or worth in laying all that chalk. However even though they had all the hype last season, there was value in the Broncos in 2012. The real question is whether they will still have betting value in the NFL odds come September.
The Broncos were 10-7 ATS including the playoffs last season, and they were 5-3 ATS on the road. The most profitable Broncos bet last season was surprisingly as favorites. Denver was 9-4 ATS as favorites last season. Even though they will likely be a solid Super Bowl contender, their future odds are untouchable, and I feel as if they might be overvalued in the game odds because of their stellar ATS records from 2012.
The Chargers are normally one of the most overvalued teams in the NFL, but with a new head coach and a big roster turnover, the Chargers aren’t getting much love this offseason in the future odds, but will that translate into ATS wins this season? The Chargers have little value in the AFC West odds seeing as the Broncos are Super Bowl contenders, but they had value last season, and I think we can see similar things from them in 2013.
San Diego was 10-6 cashing the over last season, and they were 4-2 ATS as away underdogs. However they were constantly overvalued at home and even though I think things will not be too bad in San Diego, I think a more .500 ATS season is in order.
The Chiefs may be the most undervalued team in the NFL this offseason, and with Andy Reid in town, I see a much better season both SU and ATS for the Chiefs in 2013. Kansas City was 5-11 ATS last season, and I think that as well as their ATS record is going to be one of the reasons they are going to be undervalued this season.
On top of being awful in 2012, the Chiefs will likely be undervalued anyways because of how small the market is. I’m seeing a rebound season for KC, but they have no value in the future odds.
You’re in for a rough ride this season, Raiders fans. But betting value could be another story for them this season. Even if they have another bad SU season, the Raiders could be a nice bet this season if Matt Flynn can come in and be a steady starter.
Oakland was also 5-11 ATS last season, and although I would put a lot more faith in the Chiefs ATS for my NFL picks this season, Oakland could surprise some people if they can put things together.