AFC South season wins future odds update
On top of already being a subpar division, the AFC South plays the AFC West and the NFC West this season, making for a lot of bad television when the bad teams of these divisions play one another. We'll break down each of the teams and see which NFL picks will bring the most bang for your buck (season win totals provided by LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas.)
The Texans find themselves at an even 10 wins this offseason, and with the 27th ranked strength of schedule in the NFL, the over does seem pretty good . It seems sportsbooks have recognized this. Knowing that the Texans are extremely good, and that the division is subpar, the NFL Odds are at -130 for an over bet on the Texans this offseason, while the under would cash at +110. There are only a few times when I have recommended so much chalk on an over season wins bet this offseason; however the Texans have improved the holes in their defense this summer, and if they can stay healthy, I think they will be able to cruise through this division to at least 11, possibly 12 wins.
Indianapolis was an 11-win football team just a season ago, and with one of the easiest strength of schedules of any team in the NFL this season (30th) they curiously come in at 8 ½ wins this offseason. They do have a tough road starting the season, to some extent. Before their bye week in Week 8, they have to play the 49ers, the Seahawks, and the Broncos. Luckily, two of those three are at home and if the Colts can go 4-3 SU or better before their bye week, the over is a lock in Indianapolis’ season wins totals. The over would cash a nice prize of +100 as well, with the under coming in at -120. I think the books have this one completely backwards.
The Titans also have somewhat of an easy strength of schedule this season, ranked 23rd in the NFL. Both sides of this bet have the same NFL odds at -110, so should we trust the shaky Titans this season to have an average year? I think we should. Although they were 6-10 SU last season, the Titans seemed to have fixed their problems on defense, as well as their offense of line. If both of those things are truly as improved as I think they are, the over has some value yet again in this division.
Then we get to the ugly cousin of the division. The Jags were awful last season and in 2013, all signs point to them having a disappointing year once again. Their strength of schedule is ranked 13th in the NFL, and with multiple question marks on both sides of the ball, this has to be the first team in this division that I have recommended the under for. They too have a very tough opening half of their schedule. In the first eight weeks of the season, they play Indianapolis and San Francisco at home, and then go on the road to Seattle, St. Louis and Denver. The games against mediocre teams in that first half will not be easy either, and I simply see no way the Jaguars get north of five wins this season. The value is with the under at +110, and I am willing to take a bite.