AFC South divisional future odds update
Now in 2013, Houston is once again the favorite to win the AFC South, but will any of the other three teams have anything to say about it? The Colts got really close last season to shocking the NFL betting world, but will they or anyone else have enough for the season to beat out the Texans? I’ll give you a hint; I think the NFL future odds are trying to tell us something/
Houston is one of only a few teams that are laying money in the NFL divisional future odds this offseason, and they come in head and shoulders above everyone else in the South division. I am actually surprised they aren’t a bit bigger of a favorite, but that is more concerning than it is relieving. This could very well be the books trying to entice us into a bet on the Texans to win the division, when they actually don’t have as much value as we originally thought.
Houston was a clear favorite last season, but that doesn’t mean they were overvalued last season, In fact it was quite the opposite. The Texans finished the regular and postseasons with a 10-8 ATS record, where they were 3-1 ATS after a SU loss, 6-3 ATS at home and 9-6 ATS as a favorite.
I think the Colts are overvalued this season and might even regress this season, so laying the points with the Texans isn’t that bad if you’re into loving the chalk.
A year after one of the best bounce back performances in recent NFL memory, the Colts are gearing up for another season with Andrew Luck as their franchise quarterback. The Colts were one of the best teams ATS last season at 11-5, and they capped it off with a playoff berth.
This season their price to win the division is down dramatically as you would expect, but they are still far behind the Texans as underdogs in the NFL divisional future odds. Even though they have done some good things revamping their defense this offseason, I still don’t think they have what it takes to stop Arian Foster, or even Maurice Jones-Drew or Chris Johnson for that matter, all starting running backs in their division. When you can’t stop the run, Luck can’t get on the field and live up to his name and now growing reputation on the field.
The Titans could be one of the most undervalued or overvalued teams in the NFL this season. Their possibilities are limitless. They could end up being a surprising 9-7 ATS team and maybe 8-8 SU, or they could go 4-12 SU and probably that bad ATS. It’s just too early to tell.
It is that reason why I can’t pass too much judgment on the Titans this offseason, but I can say their defense will likely be the source of any value they have in 2013. They were awful last season and very overvalued at 6-10 ATS. So will they repeat, or will they now be undervalued because of it?
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3000)
There isn’t much to be said about the Jags except they could and probably will be one of the worst teams in football both SU and ATS. They are completely rebuilding this team and after a 2-14 SU season. While I think their pass defense has improved this offseason, they are still going to give up a ton of rushing yards, and in this division, that’s a death sentence both SU and likely ATS as well.