NFL Picks: AFC Season Wins Total Best Bets

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, July 3, 2013 7:49 PM GMT

Let's review the four best value NFL picks for Season Total Wins in the AFC conference.

I have given my picks on all 32 teams’ season win totals, but there are four from each conference that are particularly intriguing to me. The NFL odds are in our favor with the following four teams.

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Cincinnati Bengals (8½)

The Bengals are probably my best bet in the AFC, and possibly the entire NFL when it comes to season wins totals. The Bengals got a lot of dynamic rookies this offseason, and their defense is likely going to be one of the toughest in the NFL. I picked the Bengals to win the AFC North, and to do that they will likely need nine or ten wins. I think they can get there this season. Their strength of schedule is tough at 12th, but they also get to play the AFC East this season, a division that could be lighter. All in all, nine wins is almost a lock for me, and I think even ten would be reasonable for Cincinnati.

My Pick: ‘Over’ 8.5 +110

Denver Broncos (11½)

Out of all the top-notch AFC teams, the Broncos are the only one that hasn’t taken any hits yet this offseason. The Patriots (one of Denver’s only tough road tests of the entire season) are crumbling on offense right now, and if the young running game of the Broncos can carry the load, I see 12 or even 13 wins this season for Denver. Peyton Manning might have a few crud games here or there that lead to losses, but other than a trip to Houston and that trip to New England, the Broncos could seemingly win every other game they play.

My Pick: ‘Over’ 11.5 +110

New York Jets (6½)

The Jets could end up as one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. Their offense is in shambles with the exception of the limited upside of Chris Ivory and Santonio Holmes, and even though their defense is improving, I doubt it will be much better after having to cover for the likely countless turnovers Mark Sanchez will commit this season. Plus the first nine weeks of their season are brutal. I could easily see them going into their bye week as a 2-7 SU team, Rex Ryan getting firing, and the Jets tanking for a draft pick in 2014. Even 5.5 wins might be too high for this team, so for your NFL picks take the 'Under' with confidence.

My Pick: ‘Under’ 6.5 -110

Jacksonville Jaguars (5)

The Jags are still one of the worst teams in the NFL, and after a 2-14 SU season just a year ago, and adding a new coach to the fold, things could once again be slow rolling in northern Florida this season. Thanks to the suspension of Justin Blackmon for the first four games, on offense after Maurice Jones-Drew they don’t have much to go to. I like Cecil Shorts but he is not a #1 wide receiver in the NFL. With that being said, do we really think the Jaguars could triple their win total from a season ago? I think they are going to do well, but because this total is at 5, and because the chalk is with the ‘Over’, the value is surely with the ‘Under’.

My Pick: ‘Under’ 5 +125

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