NFL Picks for AFC Season Win Totals: Line Movement in Early Stages of Free Agency

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, April 1, 2015 5:58 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 1, 2015 5:58 PM UTC

With much happening in the early stages of NFL Free Agency, there has already been some line movement for some teams from the Opening NFL Season Win Totals numbers released by CG Technology for the 2015 season. Let’s analyze why some of these lines moved, and see if there is a good pick lying hidden here.

Las Vegas sportsbook operator CG Technology was extremely quick in releasing its 2015 NFL Season Win Totals this year, and with a great deal of action already happening off the football field with Free Agency underway, the NFL’s 32 teams have been wheeling and dealing like there’s no tomorrow and the NFL Draft (April 30-May 2) is still a month away. Last time out here at Sportsbook Review, we took a look at CG Technology’s opening Season Team Win Totals in the NFL, so, with some semi-significant movement on some of the team’s totals and juice, let’s take a look at the actual moves, analyze them on a simplistic level and then provide another NFL pick here if there still seems there could be value, despite the reality that not that much has really happened and that most of these moves are just the slightest of ticks and few teams’ Season Win Totals move (up or down) a ½ (game). Let’s be serious now. The start of the NFL season is still well over 5 months away and although this is indeed a marketplace and people love their (American) Football, making a huge deal about the line moving 10¢ on a New England Patriots Team Total seems a bit like overkill. In essence, it’s (any movement) really only a big deal if you bet a lot of money on it and it wins, it really didn’t matter anyway because you didn’t lose what you put up.

For example, if you bet $1,450 on the ‘Over’ this season—using these current updated NFL odds, obviously—on the Patriots Season Team Win Total of 10½ with the now -145 (up that aforementioned 10¢) juice or odds on the Over and Tom Brady and New England repeat as Super Bowl Champions (13/2, Paddy Power)—and they do—the $100 more juice you paid (Opened at 10½ -135) doesn’t matter in this example because you end up getting your money back anyway because the bet is a (theoretical) winner. Only on losers do you pay (or save) the extra juice from the lines movement from its’ Opener. In my opinion, that’s too much stress worrying about something insignificant in so many ways and out of your control. The weathered sports gambler will lay that extra $100, and, Win or Lose, will not care as much as people imagine, as there are always more bets out there and work to be done in The Present for The Future. Dwelling on losses, be they individual games or Futures Bets like these NFL Season Win Totals are, becomes something those who do this for a living just don’t have the precious Time for. And for The Little Guy, the average gambler, the dude on vacation in Sin City who plunks $50 down on his hometown Atlanta Falcons (40/1) or Cincinnati Bengals (33/1) or whomever, whatever movement happens is really insignificant for him (or her), and sweating a 10¢ or 20¢ move on a bet so small—and done for Fun and Recreationally—is like getting really bummed out that the New Kite you just purchased got caught up in Neighbor Fred’s Old Oak Tree on a really windy day. Some things are purchased to have fun with and crash. And, most things like this probably aren’t worth sweating, especially if they are things done on one’s own volition and simply in The Name of Fun. Let’s first take a look at movement from the CG Technology NFL Season Team Win Totals Openers in the AFC (through March 12), followed by the NFC in the next story.
AFC—Recent (March 12) and (Opening) CG Technology Season Team Win Totals Odds.


What Moved, How Much and Maybe Why
Only five teams in the AFC saw their odds move somewhat significantly from their Openers at CG Technology, and, as you can see, only one—the Indianapolis Colts—saw their Season Team Win Total move a ½, from its’ 9½ (Under -120) opening line to 10 (Over -125)—no doubt in a strong reaction from early bettors over the signings of WR Andre Johnson (Texans), RB Frank Gore (49ers) and DE Trent Cole (Eagles), among various other moves. The Buffalo Bills saw a 20¢ move toward the Over (Read positive perception) after landing WR Percy Harvin (Jets), RB LeSean McCoy (Eagles), QB Matt Cassel and re-signing Free Agent DE Jerry Hughes. So, Buffalo should be much improved in the coming NFL season. The Cincinnati Bengals saw a 30¢ move in the Over’s direction, while the New York Jets also saw 35¢ movement that way in the juice in their Season Team Win Total, no doubt in wake of the strong signings of dynamic CBs Darrelle Revis (Patriots) and Antonio Cromartie (Cardinals). Like fellow AFC East Empire State rivals, the Bills, the Jets are trying to load up to try to compete divisionally with the Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots this coming season, who will kick off the 2015 NFL Season on Thursday, September at 10 at home at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts against an opponent yet to be named—but who could very well be the Pittsburgh Steelers or Philadelphia Eagles if my cat knows anything about the NFL.

Also, the AFC’s Oakland Raiders saw their odds move toward the Under 30¢ (Read negative perception) for some reason, possibly because the Black and Silver really haven’t done that much yet in the offseason. And probably because they’re the Raiders. And, it was those Indianapolis Colts who made the real (and only significant) aforementioned news here, seeing the number of games in their Season Win Team Total at CG Technology actually move (up) a half-game (½) from the moves, speculation and thoughts of having an perceived edge on a Futures Bet.

So, if you’re the holder of a Colts Over 9½ Season Team Win Total ticket, congratulations brother. But remember, that whatever perceived value you think you have—and all the professional bettors and Wise Guys and bookmakers and birds know this—is only reaped if that ticket actually wins. In short, if Indianapolis only wins 9 games (or less) this coming season, then all bettors of the Over on the Colts Season Win Total will be in the same boat. And remember, season Won-Loss Totals never fall on a ½, so Colts bettors at 10 (wins) needs 11 Indianapolis wins to cash, whereas the bettor with the 9½ would win should the Colts win 10 games (or more), with the current bettor holding a 10-wins ticket pushing if it lands on 10. Now, time to examine the NFC.

Season Team Win Total Pick: New England Patriots Over 10½ -145 (CG Technology)
Previous AFC Season Win Team Total Picks: Baltimore Ravens Over 9 -120, Buffalo Bills Under 8 -120, Cleveland Browns Under 6 -105 (CG Technology)

comment here