Future odds for both the Super Bowl and the AFC are out and moving, so let’s se if any value has emerged now that the draft and free agency are almost fully behind us. The NFL odds for this piece some from bet365.
Baltimore Ravens (+1800 Super Bowl, +800 AFC)
The Ravens won the ultimate prize this past season, and now they are trying to rebuild slightly after a bad offseason for their defense. Despite losing a number of key starters on the defensive end of the field, the Ravens come in priced rather well in both categories so far. I think once the division odds are out, the Ravens should be atop those as well, but only slightly.
I do however think their odds to win the AFC are a bit of a reach. Everything had to go right for the Ravens to win last season, and even though they have made some nice improvements, I don’t think they should be any lower than +1000 or even a bit higher to return to a Super Bowl.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1800 Super Bowl, +800 AFC)
The NFL Odds have the Steelers right on par with the Ravens in regards to the 2013 future odds. Pittsburgh was a good team last season, but they got hurt and tired at the wrong time. The problem for Pittsburgh this offseason is people want to leave Pittsburgh. They didn’t have a great offseason, but their draft was solid enough to make it ok it seems.
I think the Steelers are right very adequately priced. Although I’m not buying their Super Bowl chances, I’ve seen this story before when it comes to the Steelers. People write them off and then they come in and slay giants. I might make a small buy on the Steelers AFC odds right now. They might be a surprise this season, and they could hold great value for our NFL picks.
Cincinnati Bengals (+4000 Super Bowl, +1600 AFC)
In what should be one of the more improved teams in the AFC this season, the Bengals are coming in pretty adequately priced in the Super Bowl odds. Even though they’ll be better, and probably make another run at the playoffs, I doubt they make it very far if they do.
I do however think their AFC Odds have them a little overvalued. This is a 9-7 or 10-6 football team that will go down in the playoffs, not a conference champion. The Colts, Chargers and Chiefs (the 3 C’s) are all priced behind Cincinnati, and I can all but guarantee that one or more of those teams will have a better shot at an AFC crown this season. I’m selling the Bengals.
Cleveland Browns (+6600 Super Bowl, +2800 AFC)Let’s be honest, the Browns aren’t going anywhere, but I do think they might have a little bit of value on a game-to-game basis. Cleveland is not an easy place to play, and a team coming in and taking them lightly might get beaten, giving us good odds. However, they have zero value as it stands now.