NFL Picks: AFC East Division Betting Odds Analysis

Steve Merril -

Thursday, August 8, 2013 7:24 PM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 8, 2013 7:24 PM UTC

The NFL regular season is just around the corner. Let's review the four teams in the AFC and see what's the very best betting value in the division.

Sports betting websites with the best prices on 2013-14 NFL Futures

Buffalo Bills (2012: 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: +2200

Season win total: 6.5

Buffalo released mistake-prone QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and they reached for a franchise QB in the first round with the drafting of EJ Manuel. The good thing for Manuel is the Bills have a very good offensive line and some good skill players to work with.

However, the Buffalo Bills are a team in transition. The Bills have a whole new coaching staff and new personnel throughout the roster. Head coach Doug Marrone comes from the college ranks (Syracuse) and along with him comes his staff, including offensive coordinator Nathanial Hackett who is just 33 years old.

Miami Dolphins (2012: 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS)

Odds to win division: +400

Season win total: 7.5

Miami head coach Joe Philbin’s first season on the job was a success at 7-9 SU, especially since he started rookie QB Ryan Tannehill. Not much is expected from the Dolphins this season, but we think this team can be sneaky good. Five of their nine losses came by 7 points or less, and many of those were because of their youth and inexperience.

After a 4-3 start to the 2012 season, the Miami Dolphins faltered down the stretch closing with 6 losses in their last 9 games. Maybe that was due to their youth, or possibly teams just figured them out. Miami landed a lot of veterans in free agency and they drafted to their needs, so this appears to be an underrated team heading into the 2013 season.

New England Patriots (2012: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Odds to win division: -450

Season win total: 11.5

They had the NFL’s #1 offense in yardage (428) and points scored per game (34.8). New England’s offense is in good hands as long as QB Tom Brady stays on the field. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels got the running game going last season, and it will be imperative for the Patriots to duplicate that success this season.

However, there have been some major losses on that potent offense as receiver Wes Welker left for Denver, while tight end Aaron Hernandez was released from team after being arrest for murder. The other tight end, Rob Gronkowski, has had multiple surgeries since breaking his forearm. With so much doubt at tight end and receiver, the Patriots might regress on offense this season.

New York Jets (2012: 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: +2500

Season win total: 6.5

The Jets were a comedy of errors last season, and in order to get rid of the circus-like atmosphere, they undertook a major reconstruction. The Jets have low expectations for good reason, but that might actually help take some of the pressure off this team. New York’s defense did improve by 96 yards per game from their 2011 numbers, so the stop unit could keep them in some games this season.

However, the Jets are not a good football team. They have serious quarterback issues, and new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg is installing his West Coast offensive system. They only scored a total of 79 points in their final six games of last season. They simply do not have the right personnel to succeed now. The Jets have a long way to go to be a winning team and they will have to rely heavily on their defense to win low-scoring games this season.


AFC East Prediction

In the NFL odds, the Patriots are heavy favorites to once again win this division, however there is not much value at -450. A possible sleeper team is the Miami Dolphins at +400, but a more realistic NFL pick is using the Dolphins Over 7.5 wins for the season.

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