The upstart Tennessee Titans will travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in an AFC Championship showdown on Sunday afternoon. Let’s check out the NFL odds and cash a ticket.
Tennessee Titans (11-7 SU, 10-7-1 ATS) vs Kansas City Chiefs (13-4 SU, 11-5-1 ATS)
Sunday, January 19, 2020 – 03:05 PM EST at Arrowhead Stadium
The Titans hit the exacta by knocking off two of the three most dangerous teams in the AFC when they dispatched the Patriots and Ravens in short order. On Sunday, they will attempt to cash in on the trifecta when they meet the juggernaut known as the Kansas City Chiefs.
The case can certainly be made that this year’s NFL Cinderella, hailing from Nashville, is a legitimate threat to represent the AFC in February. But in order to make that happen, the Tennessee defense will have to do something few teams have done this year, contain a healthy Patrick Mahomes and keep the Chiefs’ defense in check.
Speaking of Mahomes, and his prolific offense, they failed to show up in the first quarter of their postseason matchup with the Texans last week. In fact, it was Deshaun Watson that stole the show with a pair of passing touchdowns in the opening frame to move the Texans in front to a 21-0 lead that would swell to 24-0 early in the second quarter.
But then the sleeping giant awoke and Mahomes put on an absolute laser show with a stunning five touchdown passes on 321 passing yards and even led all rushers with 53 yards on the ground. When the dust settled the Chiefs drew away to a 51-31 victory and easily covered as 9 ½ point home chalk.
The NFL odds at all of the best sportsbooks are dealing Kansas City as 7 ½ point home favorites despite the fact that Tennessee has proven they can beat the best the conference has to offer. In addition, the Titans have defeated the Chiefs the last four times these teams have met, including a 35-32 victory in Nashville on November 19th in which they were installed as five-point home dogs.
However, the big difference between then and now is that the Chiefs are healthy at exactly the right time. Mahomes is no longer missing two starting offensive linemen and that pass protection allowed him to torch the Texans’ last week for five touchdowns and a convincing victory after a first-quarter malaise that could have cost them the game.
We must also remember that Mahomes had just returned from an injury in that mid-November contest and still launched for 446 yards. But the difference-maker for Tennessee was Derrick Henry who rambled for 188 yards and a pair of trips into the end zone.
This Sunday rematch will go much differently as the Titans will have to count on the Chiefs doing what the Patriots and Ravens did – make uncharacteristic mistakes. Derrick Henry is the most devastating rusher in football but once Kansas City draws out to an early lead, the offense will have to rely on Ryan Tannehill matching Mahomes with aerial heroics.
I don’t see that happening anytime soon and believe that Kansas City is worth a wager in your NFL picks on Sunday.
Free NFL Pick: Chiefs -7 ½ (-105) at Bookmaker