NFL Picks: Advanced Lines to Give you a Head Start on Week 5 Betting

Kevin Stott

Friday, October 2, 2015 4:25 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 2, 2015 4:25 PM UTC

The Advanced Lines are out for NFL Week 5 and there are some pretty intriguing matchups on the schedule.  Here are all the fresh odds, some trends & free NFL Picks

Indianapolis Colts (-1) vs. Houston Texans
The Indianapolis Colts (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS; vs. Jaguars Sunday) and QB Andrew Luck (17-7-2 ATS at Home) head to NRG Stadium in Houston next Thursday night to face the Texans (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS; at Falcons Sunday) in a big early season AFC South date. Luck has only been taking light reps in Practice (Wednesday, Thursday), so we’ll all see how bad he really is physically on Sunday vs. the Jaguars (-9, 48 Station Casinos). Last year, Indianapolis won 33-28 here in the first meeting between the two, covering as 2½-point favorites, while the Colts also won and pushed the Point Spread (-7) at Home in Naptown, 17-10. The Colts are 5-1-1 ATS the L7 vs. the Texans.


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)
The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS; vs. Colts Sunday) and QB Blake Bortles head south to Tampa and Raymond James Stadium to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS; vs. Panthers Sunday) and Rookie QB Jameis Winston in this Sunshine State shindig and first game on the betting board next Sunday. The last time these two teams played, the Bucs lost at Jacksonville 41-14 as 3-point favorites in 2011, while the last meeting here in Tampa (2007), the Bucs lost 24-23 as 4-point favorites. The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS the L5 in this inter-conference, intra-state affair. Heading into Week 4 play, Jacksonville had scored an AFC-low 49 points while the Buccaneers were also sitting on 49. The Patriots popped 51 on the Jaguars last weekend just for fun.


Buffalo Bills (-3) vs. Tennessee Titans 
Tyrod Taylor and the Buffalo Bills (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS; vs. Giants Sunday) head to the Volunteer State next Sunday and LP Field in Nashville to dance with the Tennessee Titans (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS; Open Date this week) in this interdivisional AFC game. The status of the Bills WR Sammy Watkins and RB LeSean McCoy were both questionable on Thursday (Oct. 1), so check on both them after Sunday’s game vs. the G-Men in Buffalo. The last time these two teams played, the Titans won at Buffalo, 35-34 as 4-point underdogs in 2012, while the last time these two played here at Opryland, Buffalo won as 8-point underdogs, 41-17 in 2009. Note: Titans Overs are 3-0 ATS and Tennessee will be working with 13 days Rest. This could be a challenging spot for new Head Coach Rex Ryan and Buffalo.


Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens (-8½)
After playing in San Diego in Week 4, the poor Cleveland Browns (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS; at Chargers) head all the way back across the entire country to Baltimore to face the Ravens (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS; beat Steelers, 23-20 in OT on Thursday night) in this AFC North affair next weekend which will be pretty darn important for both teams. Last season, the Ravens won and covered by ½ a point in Cleveland, 23-21 (-1½), while in this game last year in the Crab City, Baltimore won, 20-10, but did not cover as heavy 14-point chalks. The Browns are an impressive 4-1 ATS the L5 here in Baltimore, but the Ravens will be fired up after Thursday’s come-from-behind win, glad to be back Home after 3 of the first 4 games were on the Road, and will be facing one of the worst teams in the NFL, weary from travel.
Early NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-8½)


Washington Redskins vs. Atlanta Falcons (-7½)
Matt Ryan (32-23-2 ATS at Home) and the Atlanta Falcons (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS; vs. Texans Sunday) play host to the Washington Redskins (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS; vs. Eagles Sunday) at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta next Sunday afternoon in the NFC inter-conference affair which will be more important to the Redskins. The last time these two teams played, the Falcons won 27-26 at Home in Atlanta but failed to cover as 5-point favorites (2013), while when they met three seasons ago in Landover (2012), Atlanta won 24-17 and covered as 3-point favorites. The Falcons are 3-1 ATS the L4 overall vs. Washington and Atlanta is 4-1 ATS the L5 here at Home against the Redskins (0-1 ATS Road).
Ealrly NFL Pick: Atlanta Falcons -7½


Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-12) 
The Chicago Bears (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS; vs. Raiders on Sunday) head to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri to face the Kansas City Chiefs (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS; at Browns Sunday) in this inter-conference Midwest battle and pretty much a must-win—pause for laugh—for the visitors from the Windy City. With Bears starting QB Jay Cutler (Hamstring) possibly still nursing his injury, Chicago may roll with Jimmy Clausen. These two don’t play that much in the Regular Season, but the last time they did, the Chiefs won outright and covered, 10-3 getting 9 points at Soldier Field in 2011, while the last time these two danced here at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs rolled 31-3 and easily covered ATS, way back in 2003, over a decade ago when Hip Hop artist 50 Cent released his famous ‘In Da Club’ album. I don’t know what you heard about me. The Bears are 3-1 ATS in the L4 at Kansas City, but those were different Bears teams and likely ones which knew about Defense. Note: These two teams have alternated Wins and Losses 8 straight meetings with the Chiefs winning the last. Note: Chiefs Overs are 3-0 ATS.


New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles: No Line
There is no Advanced Line up at the place Elvis stayed on Joe Brown Drive yet, but we can be sure that New Orleans Saints (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS; vs. Cowboys Sunday night) QB Drew Brees will be saying he feels like playing midweek no matter what against the Eagles (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS; at Redskins Sunday) in Philadelphia next Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field in the City of Brotherly Love. When these two last met (2012), the Saints defeated the Eagles, 28-13 at the Superdome and covered as 3-point favorites, while the last meeting here in the Keystone State (2009), Brees and Who Dat Nation opened a can of whoop ass on Philadelphia, winning 48-23 as 3-point underdogs. The Saints are 3-0 ATS over the L3 meetings, but like the Bears, those were different, much better teams. This looked better on the schedule in July than it does now.


St. Louis Rams vs. Green Bay Packers (-9) 
The Green Bay Packers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, at 49ers Sunday) and QB Aaron Rodgers (36-18-3 ATS at Home) play host to the St. Louis Rams (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS; at Cardinals Sunday) in a big inter-divisional NFC tilt but tough spot for the visitors with the game at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. The last time these two met, the Packers won 30-20 as 4½-point chalks in 2012 in the Gateway City, while the last time these two met here in Brown County where it rains Cheese Curds and the Cows know the Packers theme song, Green Bay won and covered, 24-3 as 14-point favorites in 2011. The Packers are 5-1 ATS the L6 in this series.
Early NFL Pick: Green Bay Packers -9


Seattle Seahawks (-2½) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, vs. Chiefs Sunday) welcome the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS; vs. Lions on Sunday) to Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati next Sunday for this fantastic matchup and bigger game for the visiting Seahawks. The last time these two played, the Bengals won 34-12 at Seattle as 1½-point favorites in 2011, while the last meeting here in the Queen City was way back in 2007—Seattle’s second season in the NFC—where Cincinnati won 27-24. Trend-wise, the Bengals are 4-1-1 ATS the L6 vs. Seattle but just 1-3 ATS in the L4 vs. the Seahawks here at Paul Brown Stadium. This should be a classic, with Cincinnati having the edge on Offense with Skill guys like QB Andy Dalton (20-13-2 ATS at Home), WR AJ Green, WR Marvin Jones, TE Tyler Eifert, RB Giovani Bernard and RB Jeremy Hill, and Seattle having the stronger Defense with FS Kam Chancellor now done with his holdout and back with his Legion of Boom members, SS Dion Bailey, CB Cary Williams and CB Richard Sherman. This one’s can’t-miss TV.


Arizona Cardinals (-2½) vs. Detroit Lions
The upstart Arizona Cardinals (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, vs. Rams Sunday) and QB Carson Palmer (37-32-3 ATS on Road) head to Ford Field in Detroit next Sunday for this Week 5 meeting with the Detroit Lions (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS; at Seahawks Monday night) and a hobbled Matthew Stafford (17-22-1 ATS at Home). The last meeting between these two NFC teams was last year in Glendale where Arizona topped Detroit, 14-6 as 1-point underdogs. The last meeting here in the Motor City was in 2005 where the Lions won 29-21 as 4-point favorites. The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS over the L6 vs. Detroit but Arizona is an ugly 0-4 ATS the L4 trips to Motown, although those Cardinals teams weren’t half as good as the one Head Coach Bruce Arians (24-11-1 ATS) has put together now.
Early NFL Pick: Cardinals -2½


New England Patriots (-9½) vs. Dallas Cowboys (CBS, NFL RedZone, 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT): Another pretty good-looking game on paper here from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas next Sunday afternoon as the Dallas Cowboys (2-1 ATS, 1-2 SU; at Saints Sunday night) host the Super Bowl-champion New England Patriots (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS; Open Date). But why the big line with the Pats on the Road you Ask? well, first off, Tony Romo and Dez Bryant and some other Cowboys are injured. Second, New England is mad, undefeated and has this QB named Tom Brady (64-44-1 ATS on Road). The last meeting between these two was in Foxboro in 2011 where the Patriots won 20-16 but failed to cover aqs 4½-point favorites while the last meeting here in the Big D was in 2007 where New England throttled the Cowboys, 48-27, easily covering as 5½-point chalks. The Patriots are 3-1 ATS the L4 vs. Cowboys overall.


Denver Broncos (-6½) vs. Oakland Raiders
The Denver Broncos (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS; vs. Vikings Sunday) and QB Peyton Manning (74-58-5 ATS on Road) head to O.Co Coliseun in Week 5 to face the Oakland Raiders (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS; at Bears Sunday) in this AFC West meeting. Denver has dominated the division of late, and last season when these two teams played, the Broncos won and covered both, thrashing the Silver and Black in Oakland, 41-17 as big 13-point favorites in the first meeting and the beating the Raiders, 47-14 as 16-point chalks in Week 17. With the emergence of Raiders QB David Carr, Rookie WR Amari Cooper (Alabama) and Free Agent-signee Michael Crabtree (49ers), Oakland is the best it has been in some time and this could end up being a very good and close game. Still, lean to Denver and Uncle peyton until someone in the AFC West actually beats them on the gridiron. The Broncos are 6-0-1 ATS the L7 overall vs. Oakland and Denver is a sparkly 4-0 ATS the L4 here at the Coliseum.


San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants (-7)
The Sportsbooks had some Bad Luck in two of the first three weeks of the new NFL season, but NBC has some Luck issues of its own of late also. After a this Sunday night’s Week 4 encounter between the Saints and Cowboys in New Orleans—a game with no Tony Romo and maybe no Drew Brees—the Peacock Network is serving up this matchup which may have been good four or five seasons ago between the host New York Giants (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS; at Bills on Sunday) and the San Francisco 49ers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS; at Vikings Sunday) and fading QB Colin Kaepernick (13-9-3 ATS on Road). The last meeting between these two was actually last season here at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, where the Niners won and covered as 4-point favorites in a low-scoring 16-10 game. San Francisco hasn’t fared well here Trend-wise, going 1-4 ATS L5 against the G-Men here out East—where the 49ers will go 3 Hours back from PDT to EDT—and San Francisco is a sad 2-7 ATS the L9 overall in this series.


Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Diego Chargers (-6½)
Qualcomm Stadium in sunny San Diego is the site of this Monday Night Football game between the host San Diego Chargers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS; vs. Browns Sunday) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2 SU, 2-0-2 ATS; lost to Ravens, 23-20 in OT on Thursday night), and what suddenly seems like a big game for both after Thursday’s night’s embarrassing collapse by Pittsburgh. The last time these two teams played was in 2012 at Pittsburgh when the Chargers won outright, 34-24 as 7-point underdogs, while the last meeting here at Qualcomm Stadium was back in 2006 where the Bolts won 23-13 as 3½-point favorites. The Steelers are 7-3 ATS the L10 overall in this series and the Black and Gold is 4-1 ATS the L5 here in Southern California, but those games were all played a long time ago. Note: The L4 meetings in this series have all been at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh.

NFL WEEK 5 BYES: Carolina Panthers, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets

NFL WEEK 5 ADVANCED PICKS: Ravens (-8½) vs. Browns; Falcons (-7½) vs. Redskins; Packers (-9) vs. Rams; Cardinals (-2½) vs. Lions

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